Short Trade on XRP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1377.51 XRP at 0.995$ per unit. Take profit: 0.9801 (1.47 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0005 (0.58 %)
16 Aug 2026 at 18:07:46
hyperliquid
XRP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
16 Aug 2026 18:07
→ 21:30
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 0.9947$
Qty 1377.5077 XRP
Size 1370.1518$ (margin 100$) (leverage 14)
Risk Setup
TP 0.9801 (+1.47%)
TP $ 20.11$
SL 1.0005 (-0.58%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.52
Status
loss
PnL
-0.58%
/ -7.99$
MAE -1.23%
MFE +0.66%
1.1R
expires
17 Aug 06:07
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 71622)
#11 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 16/08/2026 18:00
score du 16/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3896
Quality Score
0.594
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
13.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
16/08 18:00
16/08 18:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#11 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.58 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#11 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.58 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.04×ATR |
| 4h | near | -2.45×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low_confirmed rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 18:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 15/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+2) 16/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_low_confirmed (+1) 16/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1577
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué :
16/08 18:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
16/08/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.5940
Score SMA
0.4850
Rank
#11
/ 36
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3896
Rank Norm SMA
0.3937
Calculé le
16/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4540 | r1h: -0.510% · r4h: -0.639% · r1d: -1.00% · r3d: -1.39% · ema21_slope: -0.0129% · dist_ema21: -0.613% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4687 | rs_1h: -0.316% · rs_4h: -0.286% · rs_1d: -0.64% · rs_3d: -0.50% · beta_24h: 1.284 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7183 | rvol_20: 2.45× · zscore_50: 1.447 · trend: 32.92% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6822 | ADX: 21.9 (weak) · Chop: 30.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9467 | ATR%: 0.284% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.583%
(0.0058)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.372% | 0.6R | -0.171% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.380% | 0.7R | -0.171% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.659% | 1.1R | -0.623% | 1.1R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.659% | 1.1R | -0.965% | 1.7R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.659% | 1.1R | -1.227% | 2.1R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.659% | 1.1R | -1.357% | 2.3R | 0.5× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.5
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.86 | bear_high | -4.94% | -0.50 | 15/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | near -2.4ATR | — | 0.78 | bear_medium | -1.18% | +0.02 | 16/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_low_confirmed |
48%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.60 | range_low | -0.54% | -0.05 | 16/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_low |
32%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | — | — | range_low | -0.24% | -0.02 | 16/08 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 26b | — | 6.226×ATR | p90 | -1.654×ATR | p86 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 12b | — | 1.877×ATR | p0 | -0.87×ATR | p55 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 2.866×ATR | p59 | -2.299×ATR | p96 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 8b | — | 3.816×ATR | p69 | -2.421×ATR | p97 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8411
- reason: down_bo width=1.44×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.00046759
- tp_price: 0.98014103
- atr:
- score: 0.84112210629809
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T10:07:39.272974
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84112210629809
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.078
- obi_top10 : -0.0657
- micro_price : 0.99489988
- spread_pct : 0.010052
- mid_price : 0.99485
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.124
- obi_top5_std : 0.0258
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6874
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.0022
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.998175
- balance_zone_mid:
1.0001875
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786802400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786917600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.4371
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
33
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8411
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786914000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.998175
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7576
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.255
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
17
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_medium
- atr_entry : 0.00280088 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
33
inside_close_ratio
0.7576
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.255
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:07 | 0.99466000 | -0.004% |
| 2 | 18:13 | 0.99466000 | -0.004% |
| 3 | 18:19 | 0.99609000 | +0.14% |
| 4 | 18:25 | 0.99609000 | +0.14% |
| 5 | 18:31 | 0.99609000 | +0.14% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6874ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.078
avg -0.124
± 0.026
OBI Top 10
-0.066
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.9949
Micro Price
0.9949
Spread
0.0101%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9947 | 1.0005 | 0.9801 | 2.52 | 1.5004 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.9947
- Stop Loss: 1.0005
- Take Profit: 0.9801
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0005 - 0.9947 = 0.0057999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.9947 - 0.9801 = 0.0146
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0146 / 0.0057999999999999 = 2.5172
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1370.1518 | 100 | 1377.5077 | 14.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0057999999999999
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0057999999999999 = 1379.31
Taille de position USD = 1379.31 x 0.9947 = 1372
Donc, tu peux acheter 1379.31 avec un stoploss a 1.0005
Avec un position size USD de 1372$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1379.31 x 0.0057999999999999 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1379.31 x 0.0146 = 20.14
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.14$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1379.31
- Taille de position USD 1372
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.14
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5172
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.47 % | 20.11 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.58 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.99 $ | -0.58 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.6233 % | 106.89 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9947 | 1.0005 | 0.9801 | 2.52 | 1.5004 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.9947
- Stop Loss: 1.0005
- Take Profit: 0.9801
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0005 - 0.9947 = 0.0057999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.9947 - 0.9801 = 0.0146
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0146 / 0.0057999999999999 = 2.5172
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.9801
[entry_price] => 0.9947
[stop_loss] => 1.00108
[rr_ratio] => 2.29
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.9801
[entry_price] => 0.9947
[stop_loss] => 1.00166
[rr_ratio] => 2.1
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.9801
[entry_price] => 0.9947
[stop_loss] => 1.00224
[rr_ratio] => 1.94
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.9801
[entry_price] => 0.9947
[stop_loss] => 1.0034
[rr_ratio] => 1.68
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.583%
(0.0058)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.372% | 0.6R | -0.171% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.380% | 0.7R | -0.171% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.659% | 1.1R | -0.623% | 1.1R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.659% | 1.1R | -0.965% | 1.7R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.659% | 1.1R | -1.227% | 2.1R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.659% | 1.1R | -1.357% | 2.3R | 0.5× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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