Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 5191.6 XPL at 0.0749$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07101 (5.14 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07641 (2.07 %)
16 Aug 2026 at 18:21:37
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
16 Aug 2026 18:21
→ 02:00
· 7 hours
Position
Entry 0.07486$
Qty 5191.6026 XPL
Size 388.6693$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07101 (+5.14%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.07641 (-2.07%)
SL $ 8.05$
RR 2.48
Status
loss
PnL
-2.07%
/ -8.05$
MAE -3.57%
MFE +0.14%
0.1R
expires
17 Aug 06:21
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 71640)
#18 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 16/08/2026 18:00
score du 16/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4188
Quality Score
0.572
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
16/08 18:17
16/08 18:17
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#18 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.07 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#18 / 36
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.07 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.47×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 0.59×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 18:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 15/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 16/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 16/08 18:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1577
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué :
16/08 18:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
16/08/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.5717
Score SMA
0.5333
Rank
#18
/ 36
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4188
Rank Norm SMA
0.6494
Calculé le
16/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3653 | r1h: -2.488% · r4h: -2.874% · r1d: -2.33% · r3d: -1.08% · ema21_slope: -0.0491% · dist_ema21: -3.172% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3255 | rs_1h: -2.294% · rs_4h: -2.521% · rs_1d: -1.98% · rs_3d: -0.20% · beta_24h: 3.296 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9345 | rvol_20: 3.55× · zscore_50: 3.986 · trend: 50.90% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6257 | ADX: 15.1 (weak) · Chop: 32.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.118% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.071%
(0.0016)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.120% | 0.1R | -0.514% | 0.3R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.143% | 0.1R | -0.565% | 0.3R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.143% | 0.1R | -1.026% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.143% | 0.1R | -2.207% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.143% | 0.1R | -3.571% | 1.7R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.143% | 0.1R | -3.571% | 1.7R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.25
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | — | — | 0.51 | bear_high | -4.94% | -0.23 | 15/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | — | — | 0.41 | bear_medium | -1.47% | +0.12 | 16/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.40 | range_low | -0.55% | -0.20 | 16/08 18:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
53%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | — | 0.15 | range_low | -0.28% | -0.22 | 16/08 18:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 43b | — | 8.288×ATR | p91 | -0.387×ATR | p17 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 2.76×ATR | p39 | -1.364×ATR | p81 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 14b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -1.965×ATR | p91 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 1b | — | 1.886×ATR | p19 | -2.663×ATR | p94 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.5927
- reason: down_bo width=2.61×ATR dur=73b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.07640595
- tp_price: 0.07101261
- atr:
- score: 0.6926577767647
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T10:21:29.645675
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.6926577767647
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1234
- obi_top10 : 0.02
- micro_price : 0.07478071
- spread_pct : 0.026749
- mid_price : 0.07478
- bid_wall_price : 0.0734
- bid_wall_size : 893530
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.152
- obi_top5_std : 0.0179
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7020
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.077425
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.075218
- balance_zone_mid:
0.0763215
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786658400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786917600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.6132
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
73
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.6927
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786914000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.075218
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6027
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.418
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
15
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00084455 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
73
inside_close_ratio
0.6027
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.418
Signaux confirmants (8)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:21 | 0.07486500 | +0.007% |
| 2 | 18:27 | 0.07486500 | +0.007% |
| 3 | 18:33 | 0.07486500 | +0.007% |
| 4 | 18:39 | 0.07491100 | +0.068% |
| 5 | 18:45 | 0.07491100 | +0.068% |
| 6 | 18:51 | 0.07500900 | +0.199% |
| 7 | 18:57 | 0.07500900 | +0.199% |
| 8 | 19:04 | 0.07500900 | +0.199% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7020ms
Confidence avant OB :
69%
→
59%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.123
avg 0.152
± 0.018
OBI Top 10
0.020
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0748
Micro Price
0.0748
Spread
0.0267%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0734
Size
893,530.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07486 | 0.07641 | 0.07101 | 2.48 | 0.0925 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07486
- Stop Loss: 0.07641
- Take Profit: 0.07101
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07641 - 0.07486 = 0.00155
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07486 - 0.07101 = 0.00385
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00385 / 0.00155 = 2.4839
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 388.6693 | 100 | 5191.6026 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00155
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00155 = 5161.29
Taille de position USD = 5161.29 x 0.07486 = 386.37
Donc, tu peux acheter 5161.29 avec un stoploss a 0.07641
Avec un position size USD de 386.37$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 5161.29 x 0.00155 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 5161.29 x 0.00385 = 19.87
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.87$
Résumé
- Taille de position 5161.29
- Taille de position USD 386.37
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.87
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4839
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.14 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.07 % | 8.05 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.05 $ | -2.07 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2068 % | 106.58 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07486 | 0.07641 | 0.07101 | 2.48 | 0.0925 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07486
- Stop Loss: 0.07641
- Take Profit: 0.07101
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07641 - 0.07486 = 0.00155
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07486 - 0.07101 = 0.00385
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00385 / 0.00155 = 2.4839
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.071%
(0.0016)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.120% | 0.1R | -0.514% | 0.3R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.143% | 0.1R | -0.565% | 0.3R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.143% | 0.1R | -1.026% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.143% | 0.1R | -2.207% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.143% | 0.1R | -3.571% | 1.7R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.143% | 0.1R | -3.571% | 1.7R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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