Long Trade on PUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 130144.79 PUMP at 0.00281$ per unit. Take profit: 0.002967 (5.47 %) & Stop Loss: 0.002752 (2.17 %)
16 Aug 2026 at 23:09:18
hyperliquid
PUMP
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
16 Aug 2026 23:09
→ 02:40
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 0.002813$
Qty 130144.7861 PUMP
Size 366.0973$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.002967 (+5.47%)
TP $ 20.04$
SL 0.002752 (-2.17%)
SL $ 7.94$
RR 2.52
Status
win
PnL
+5.47%
/ +20.04$
MAE -0.71%
MFE +6.65%
3.1R
expires
17 Aug 11:09
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 71829)
#7 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 16/08/2026 23:00
score du 16/08/2026 23:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5200
Quality Score
0.661
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
30.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
16/08 23:02
16/08 23:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#7 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.17 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#7 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.17 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.49×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.54×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.04×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : bull_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 23:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 16/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 16/08 22:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1582
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | -1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
-1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué :
16/08 23:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
16/08/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.6611
Score SMA
0.4965
Rank
#7
/ 41
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5200
Rank Norm SMA
0.3622
Calculé le
16/08/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6324 | r1h: 1.149% · r4h: 5.189% · r1d: 2.18% · r3d: -5.34% · ema21_slope: -0.0490% · dist_ema21: 2.687% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6177 | rs_1h: 0.903% · rs_4h: 4.651% · rs_1d: 1.96% · rs_3d: -4.97% · beta_24h: 5.535 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5959 | rvol_20: 1.41× · zscore_50: 0.752 · trend: 101.39% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6519 | ADX: 20.7 (weak) · Chop: 40.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.472% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.169%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.284% | 0.1R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +3.271% | 1.5R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 4.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +6.648% | 3.1R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 9.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +6.648% | 3.1R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 9.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +6.648% | 3.1R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 9.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.648% | 3.1R | -3.128% | 1.4R | 2.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 60
ML Pullback Score: 6.91
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | near 0.0ATR | 0.58 | bear_high | -5.25% | +1.00 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.31 | bear_medium | -1.20% | -0.25 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
56%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | near -0.5ATR | 0.25 | range_low | +0.01% | +0.06 | 16/08 22:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion | bull_medium_confirmed |
64%
|
choppy 53% | late | — | near -0.5ATR | — | range_low | +0.31% | +0.34 | 16/08 22:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | late | 34b | — | 6.876×ATR | p89 | +0.964×ATR | p62 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 18b | — | 2.031×ATR | p4 | +0.355×ATR | p23 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 2b | — | 3.637×ATR | p88 | +1.646×ATR | p87 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 9b | — | 7.447×ATR | p100 | +3.492×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8127
- reason: up_bo width=2.24×ATR dur=49b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.00275153
- tp_price: 0.00296668
- atr:
- score: 0.81273118565049
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T15:09:10.449224
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81273118565049
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0376
- obi_top10 : -0.0318
- micro_price : 0.00280936
- spread_pct : 0.0356
- mid_price : 0.0028095
- bid_wall_price : 0.0028
- bid_wall_size : 95264981.2
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.00282
- ask_wall_size : 87169109
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0372
- obi_top5_std : 0.0039
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7033
- aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.0028
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.002711
- balance_zone_mid:
0.0027555
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786762800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786935600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2415
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
49
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8127
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786932000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.0028
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8163
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3274
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
12
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 3.971E-5 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
49
inside_close_ratio
0.8163
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3274
Signaux confirmants (14)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:09 | 0.00281300 | 0% |
| 2 | 23:15 | 0.00281300 | 0% |
| 3 | 23:39 | 0.00281700 | +0.142% |
| 4 | 23:45 | 0.00281700 | +0.142% |
| 5 | 23:51 | 0.00280600 | -0.249% |
| 6 | 23:57 | 0.00280600 | -0.249% |
| 7 | 00:04 | 0.00280600 | -0.249% |
| 8 | 00:09 | 0.00281600 | +0.107% |
| 9 | 00:15 | 0.00281600 | +0.107% |
| 10 | 00:21 | 0.00282900 | +0.569% |
| 11 | 00:27 | 0.00282900 | +0.569% |
| 12 | 00:34 | 0.00282900 | +0.569% |
| 13 | 00:39 | 0.00284000 | +0.96% |
| 14 | 00:45 | 0.00284000 | +0.96% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7033ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.038
avg 0.037
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
-0.032
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0028
Micro Price
0.0028
Spread
0.0356%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0028
Size
95,264,981.20
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0028
Size
87,169,109.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.002813 | 0.002752 | 0.002967 | 2.52 | 0.005646 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.002813
- Stop Loss: 0.002752
- Take Profit: 0.002967
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.002752 - 0.002813 = -6.1E-5
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.002813 - 0.002967 = -0.000154
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000154 / -6.1E-5 = 2.5246
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 366.0973 | 100 | 130144.7861 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -6.1E-5
Taille de position = 8 / -6.1E-5 = -131147.54
Taille de position USD = -131147.54 x 0.002813 = -368.92
Donc, tu peux acheter -131147.54 avec un stoploss a 0.002752
Avec un position size USD de -368.92$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -131147.54 x -6.1E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -131147.54 x -0.000154 = 20.2
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.2$
Résumé
- Taille de position -131147.54
- Taille de position USD -368.92
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.2
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5246
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.47 % | 20.04 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.17 % | 7.94 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 20.04 $ | 5.47 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.711 % | 32.79 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.002813 | 0.002752 | 0.002967 | 2.52 | 0.005646 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.002813
- Stop Loss: 0.002752
- Take Profit: 0.002967
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.002752 - 0.002813 = -6.1E-5
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.002813 - 0.002967 = -0.000154
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000154 / -6.1E-5 = 2.5246
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
[2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.002935
[stop_loss] => 0.002752
[rr_ratio] => 2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 06:15:00+00
[result] => win
)
[2.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.0029655
[stop_loss] => 0.002752
[rr_ratio] => 2.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 06:40:00+00
[result] => win
)
[3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.002996
[stop_loss] => 0.002752
[rr_ratio] => 3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 07:05:00+00
[result] => win
)
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.169%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.284% | 0.1R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +3.271% | 1.5R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 4.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +6.648% | 3.1R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 9.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +6.648% | 3.1R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 9.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +6.648% | 3.1R | -0.711% | 0.3R | 9.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.648% | 3.1R | -3.128% | 1.4R | 2.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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