Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 41042.48 ARB at 0.0749$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07532 (0.52 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07474 (0.25 %)
Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 41042.48 ARB at 0.0749$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07532 (0.52 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07474 (0.25 %)
Position
Entry 0.07493$
Qty 41042.479 ARB
Size 3075.3129$ (margin 100$) (leverage 31)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07532 (+0.52%)
TP $ 16.01$
SL 0.07474 (-0.25%)
SL $ 7.8$
RR 2.05
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6243
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.09×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.17×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 19.22×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 17/08 04:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.596971 15m : 0.423891 |
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (-2) 17/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 17/08 03:00 Score : -5 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5497 | r1h: -0.080% · r4h: 1.074% · r1d: 2.43% · r3d: 0.17% · ema21_slope: 0.0459% · dist_ema21: 1.235% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5391 | rs_1h: 0.126% · rs_4h: 0.913% · rs_1d: 1.70% · rs_3d: -0.77% · beta_24h: 1.666 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4041 | rvol_20: 1.03× · zscore_50: 0.166 · trend: 31.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6697 | ADX: 20.4 (weak) · Chop: 34.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.734% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.721% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.721% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.160% | 0.6R | -0.761% | 3.0R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.641% | 2.5R | -0.761% | 3.0R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.188% | 4.7R | -0.761% | 3.0R | 1.6× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.20% | -0.41 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.52 | range_medium | -0.33% | -0.01 | 17/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion | range_medium |
39%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | near 0.1ATR | 0.46 | range_low | +0.39% | +0.13 | 17/08 03:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | normal | bull_low_confirmed |
53%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | near 0.5ATR | 0.43 | range_low | +0.51% | +0.11 | 17/08 03:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 36b | — | 7.33×ATR | p89 | -0.853×ATR | p37 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 7b | — | 2.568×ATR | p15 | +0.583×ATR | p38 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 9b | — | 4.686×ATR | p87 | +1.557×ATR | p78 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 1b | — | 1.476×ATR | p4 | +1.663×ATR | p62 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63347.2
0.000864985
63402
0.596971
63190.1
0.00335316
63402
0.423891
63233.1
0.00355631
63458
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0.7638
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1
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1.3133
0.25
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-1
31
1
0.4833
0.5732
7.1782
0.55
0.7938
4.8915
1.3133
0.6468
0.2292
0.78
0.1437
0.5617
0.5265
0.2981
0.3983
-7.9373
5.255
1
0
1
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 2
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 02:15:00 | 0.07404 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 03:05:00 | 0.075 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 03:40:00 | 0.0744 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 05:50:00 | 0.07505 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 06:00:00 | 0.07536 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 06:20:00 | 0.07514 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 06:45:00 | 0.07566 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 07:15:00 | 0.075 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 07:35:00 | 0.07558 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 08:10:00 | 0.07493 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 11:00:00 | 0.07326 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 13:00:00 | 0.07436 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 16:00:00 | 0.07503 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 18:30:00 | 0.0742 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 19:00:00 | 0.07452 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:00:00 | 0.07272 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 23:00:00 | 0.07371 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 01:30:00 | 0.0748 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 06:45:00 | 0.07566 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 08:00:00 | 0.07493 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 03:00:00 | 0.07469 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 08:00:00 | 0.07583 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 15:00:00 | 0.07402 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 17:00:00 | 0.07523 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 22:00:00 | 0.07288 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 03:00:00 | 0.07539 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 01:00:00 | 0.07212 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 16:00:00 | 0.07503 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:00:00 | 0.07272 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 06:00:00 | 0.07566 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07493 | 0.07474 | 0.07532 | 2.05 | 0.1987 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07474 - 0.07493 = -0.00019
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07493 - 0.07532 = -0.00039
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00039 / -0.00019 = 2.0526
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3075.3129 | 100 | 41042.479 | 31.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00019 = -42105.26
Taille de position USD = -42105.26 x 0.07493 = -3154.95
Donc, tu peux acheter -42105.26 avec un stoploss a 0.07474
Avec un position size USD de -3154.95$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -42105.26 x -0.00019 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -42105.26 x -0.00039 = 16.42
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16.42$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.52 % | 16.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.25 % | 7.8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.8 $ | -0.25 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.347 % | 136.83 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07493 | 0.07474 | 0.07532 | 2.05 | 0.1987 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07474 - 0.07493 = -0.00019
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07493 - 0.07532 = -0.00039
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00039 / -0.00019 = 2.0526
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.721% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.721% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.160% | 0.6R | -0.761% | 3.0R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.641% | 2.5R | -0.761% | 3.0R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.188% | 4.7R | -0.761% | 3.0R | 1.6× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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