Long Trade on SPX (CatchTheWave)
With 10753.56 SPX at 0.319$ per unit. Take profit: 0.321 (0.47 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3188 (0.22 %)
Long Trade on SPX (CatchTheWave)
With 10753.56 SPX at 0.319$ per unit. Take profit: 0.321 (0.47 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3188 (0.22 %)
Position
Entry 0.3195$
Qty 10753.5554 SPX
Size 3435.7609$ (margin 100$) (leverage 34)
Risk Setup
TP 0.321 (+0.47%)
TP $ 16.13$
SL 0.3188 (-0.22%)
SL $ 7.53$
RR 2.14
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5718
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.04×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.29×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 5.09×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 17/08 06:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.54176 15m : 0.33546 |
1H_regime : range_high 15m_regime : range_medium 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (-2) 17/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 17/08 05:00 Score : -5 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5053 | r1h: 0.197% · r4h: -0.593% · r1d: -0.31% · r3d: 2.33% · ema21_slope: -0.0090% · dist_ema21: 0.182% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5109 | rs_1h: 0.320% · rs_4h: -0.253% · rs_1d: -0.80% · rs_3d: 1.54% · beta_24h: 2.061 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1846 | rvol_20: 0.09× · zscore_50: -0.610 · trend: -31.06% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5888 | ADX: 14.5 (weak) · Chop: 42.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.934% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.128% | 0.6R | 7.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.128% | 0.6R | 7.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.651% | 3.0R | 1.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.651% | 3.0R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.829% | 3.8R | 1.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 28% | late | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -4.20% | -0.12 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | near -0.2ATR | near -0.3ATR | 0.57 | range_medium | -0.62% | +0.14 | 17/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion | range_high |
41%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | — | — | 0.48 | range_low | +0.02% | +0.06 | 17/08 05:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | compression | range_medium |
40%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.32 | range_low | +0.10% | -0.03 | 17/08 05:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 44b | — | 6.331×ATR | p81 | -0.177×ATR | p10 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.51×ATR | p0 | +0.309×ATR | p28 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.876×ATR | p23 | +0.178×ATR | p17 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 12b | — | 4.392×ATR | p80 | -0.203×ATR | p14 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63354.2
-0.000919373
63296
0.54176
63202.8
0.00106182
63270
0.33546
63230.6
0.00114397
63303
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[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 4
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0.32582
195
0.5872
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0.3743
0.297
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0.634
0.5681
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0.0444
0.0246
1
0.183
0.3695
0.5
0.5
-1
10
1
0.406
0.5814
5.1786
0.5
0.895
4.6277
0.3695
0.4871
0.275
0.54
0.165
0.6735
0.4583
0
0.5915
-3.0661
4.4399
1
0
1
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 06:00:00 | 0.32148 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 06:45:00 | 0.32582 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 07:15:00 | 0.31882 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 08:05:00 | 0.31907 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 08:25:00 | 0.32087 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 08:50:00 | 0.31939 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 09:00:00 | 0.32076 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 09:30:00 | 0.32078 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 10:15:00 | 0.32081 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 10:20:00 | 0.3195 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 10:00:00 | 0.32146 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 12:45:00 | 0.31391 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 17:30:00 | 0.32745 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 21:15:00 | 0.32274 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 00:30:00 | 0.31193 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 04:15:00 | 0.32278 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 06:45:00 | 0.32582 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 07:15:00 | 0.31882 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 10:15:00 | 0.32081 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 01:00:00 | 0.32201 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 05:00:00 | 0.31567 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 09:00:00 | 0.32088 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 20:00:00 | 0.31752 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 22:00:00 | 0.3285 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 10:00:00 | 0.32146 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 12:00:00 | 0.31391 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 17:00:00 | 0.32745 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 00:00:00 | 0.31193 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 06:00:00 | 0.32582 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3195 | 0.3188 | 0.321 | 2.14 | 0.3667 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3188 - 0.3195 = -0.00070000000000003
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3195 - 0.321 = -0.0015
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0015 / -0.00070000000000003 = 2.1429
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3435.7609 | 100 | 10753.5554 | 34.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00070000000000003 = -11428.57
Taille de position USD = -11428.57 x 0.3195 = -3651.43
Donc, tu peux acheter -11428.57 avec un stoploss a 0.3188
Avec un position size USD de -3651.43$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -11428.57 x -0.00070000000000003 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -11428.57 x -0.0015 = 17.14
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 17.14$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.47 % | 16.13 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.22 % | 7.53 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 16.13 $ | 0.47 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.1283 % | 58.56 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3195 | 0.3188 | 0.321 | 2.14 | 0.3667 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3188 - 0.3195 = -0.00070000000000003
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3195 - 0.321 = -0.0015
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0015 / -0.00070000000000003 = 2.1429
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.128% | 0.6R | 7.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.128% | 0.6R | 7.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.651% | 3.0R | 1.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.651% | 3.0R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.914% | 4.2R | -0.829% | 3.8R | 1.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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