Long Trade on XMR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.03 XMR at 418.97$ per unit. Take profit: 438.3074 (4.62 %) & Stop Loss: 411.235 (1.85 %)
17 Aug 2026 at 06:23:51
hyperliquid
XMR
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
17 Aug 2026 06:23
→ 15:45
· 9 hours
Position
Entry 418.97$
Qty 1.0343 XMR
Size 433.3252$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 438.3074 (+4.62%)
TP $ 20$
SL 411.235 (-1.85%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.85%
/ -8$
MAE -2.17%
MFE +0.66%
0.4R
expires
17 Aug 18:23
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 72149)
#20 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 17/08/2026 06:00
score du 17/08/2026 06:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4035
Quality Score
0.554
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
7.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
17/08 06:17
17/08 06:17
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#20 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#20 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -1.16×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 17/08 06:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 17/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_medium (+1) 17/08 05:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1589
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.92
Snapshot évalué :
17/08 06:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 06:00
Score brut
0.5543
Score SMA
0.5488
Rank
#20
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4035
Rank Norm SMA
0.5433
Calculé le
17/08/2026 06:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5955 | r1h: 0.556% · r4h: 0.607% · r1d: 2.46% · r3d: 5.87% · ema21_slope: 0.0638% · dist_ema21: 1.202% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6150 | rs_1h: 0.679% · rs_4h: 0.947% · rs_1d: 1.97% · rs_3d: 5.08% · beta_24h: 0.231 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1667 | rvol_20: 0.33× · zscore_50: -0.625 · trend: -43.74% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5904 | ADX: 21.5 (weak) · Chop: 49.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.709% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.846%
(7.7350)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.661% | 0.4R | -0.458% | 0.3R | 1.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.661% | 0.4R | -0.888% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.661% | 0.4R | -1.699% | 0.9R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.661% | 0.4R | -1.759% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.661% | 0.4R | -2.170% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.747% | 0.4R | -2.170% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.89
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
72%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | near -1.2ATR | 0.50 | bear_high | -4.20% | +0.97 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late_trend | bull_trend | moderate | fading | compression | bull_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.27 | range_medium | -0.62% | +0.51 | 17/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | range | strong | explosive | compression | bull_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.13 | range_low | +0.02% | -0.00 | 17/08 05:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | bull_low |
48%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | — | 0.03 | range_low | +0.10% | +0.12 | 17/08 05:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 2.841×ATR | p19 | +2.085×ATR | p93 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 20b | — | 4.034×ATR | p71 | +1.494×ATR | p81 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 11b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | +1.74×ATR | p80 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 5b | — | 1.614×ATR | p3 | +1.08×ATR | p51 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8253
- reason: up_bo width=2.84×ATR dur=38b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 411.23502378
- tp_price: 438.30744055
- atr:
- score: 0.82526072518553
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T22:23:43.895024
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82526072518553
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1254
- obi_top10 : 0.0854
- micro_price : 418.67454545
- spread_pct : 0.071698
- mid_price : 418.57
- bid_wall_price : 416
- bid_wall_size : 797.46
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 420
- ask_wall_size : 864.86
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.127
- obi_top5_std : 0.0009
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6923
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
415.535
- balance_zone_bottom:
407.5
- balance_zone_mid:
411.5175
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786827600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786960800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.8445
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
38
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8253
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786942800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
415.535
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7368
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
5
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.216
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 2.82476219 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
38
inside_close_ratio
0.7368
bars_since_breakout
5
distance_to_edge_atr
1.216
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:23 | 418.97000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 06:29 | 418.97000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 06:35 | 418.97000000 | 0% |
| 4 | 06:52 | 419.92000000 | +0.227% |
| 5 | 06:58 | 419.92000000 | +0.227% |
| 6 | 07:06 | 419.92000000 | +0.227% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6923ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.125
avg 0.127
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.085
Microstructure
Mid Price
418.5700
Micro Price
418.6745
Spread
0.0717%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
416.0000
Size
797.46
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
420.0000
Size
864.86
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 418.97 | 411.235 | 438.3074 | 2.5 | 540.85 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 418.97
- Stop Loss: 411.235
- Take Profit: 438.3074
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 411.235 - 418.97 = -7.735
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 418.97 - 438.3074 = -19.3374
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -19.3374 / -7.735 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 433.3252 | 100 | 1.0343 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -7.735
Taille de position = 8 / -7.735 = -1.03
Taille de position USD = -1.03 x 418.97 = -431.54
Donc, tu peux acheter -1.03 avec un stoploss a 411.235
Avec un position size USD de -431.54$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -1.03 x -7.735 = 7.97
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.97$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -1.03 x -19.3374 = 19.92
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.92$
Résumé
- Taille de position -1.03
- Taille de position USD -431.54
- Perte potentielle 7.97
- Gain potentiel 19.92
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.62 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.85 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.85 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9834 % | 107.43 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 418.97 | 411.235 | 438.3074 | 2.5 | 540.85 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 418.97
- Stop Loss: 411.235
- Take Profit: 438.3074
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 411.235 - 418.97 = -7.735
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 418.97 - 438.3074 = -19.3374
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -19.3374 / -7.735 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.846%
(7.7350)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.661% | 0.4R | -0.458% | 0.3R | 1.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.661% | 0.4R | -0.888% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.661% | 0.4R | -1.699% | 0.9R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.661% | 0.4R | -1.759% | 1.0R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.661% | 0.4R | -2.170% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.747% | 0.4R | -2.170% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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