Short Trade on XRP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1763.93 XRP at 0.996$ per unit. Take profit: 0.9843 (1.13 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0002 (0.46 %)
17 Aug 2026 at 22:07:42
hyperliquid
XRP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
17 Aug 2026 22:07
→ 07:20
· 9 hours
Position
Entry 0.9956$
Qty 1763.9329 XRP
Size 1756.2421$ (margin 100$) (leverage 18)
Risk Setup
TP 0.9843 (+1.13%)
TP $ 19.93$
SL 1.0002 (-0.46%)
SL $ 8.11$
RR 2.46
Status
loss
PnL
-0.46%
/ -8.11$
MAE -0.57%
MFE +0.71%
1.6R
expires
18 Aug 10:07
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 72986)
#35 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 17/08/2026 22:00
score du 17/08/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3790
Quality Score
0.448
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
29.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
17/08 22:00
17/08 22:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#35 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.46 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#35 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.46 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.04×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.11×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 17/08 22:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 17/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 17/08 21:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1605
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.83
Transition risk :
0.17
Score contribution (this trade)
-1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.90
Snapshot évalué :
17/08 22:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3957
Score SMA
—
Rank
#28
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2886 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.00% · r3d: 0.02% · ema21_slope: -0.3778% · dist_ema21: -2.772% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4304 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.17% · rs_3d: -2.09% · beta_24h: 0.847 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.0871 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -1.827 · trend: -43.31% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5609 | ADX: 26.7 (trend) · Chop: 58.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.468% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.4479
Score SMA
0.5057
Rank
#35
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3790
Rank Norm SMA
0.4556
Calculé le
17/08/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4825 | r1h: -0.371% · r4h: -0.311% · r1d: 0.05% · r3d: -0.22% · ema21_slope: 0.0112% · dist_ema21: -0.233% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4473 | rs_1h: -0.214% · rs_4h: -0.158% · rs_1d: -1.80% · rs_3d: -2.16% · beta_24h: 0.870 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1560 | rvol_20: 0.11× · zscore_50: -0.660 · trend: -53.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4011 | ADX: 10.4 (weak) · Chop: 61.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.405% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4696
Score SMA
—
Rank
#29
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4631 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.030% · r1d: 0.04% · r3d: -0.17% · ema21_slope: -0.0264% · dist_ema21: -0.059% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4549 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.139% · rs_1d: -1.51% · rs_3d: -2.31% · beta_24h: 0.899 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1795 | rvol_20: 0.04× · zscore_50: -1.178 · trend: -6.46% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5400 | ADX: 28.3 (trend) · Chop: 62.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.723% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.462%
(0.0046)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.048% | 0.1R | 14.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.048% | 0.1R | 14.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.100% | 0.2R | 7.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.452% | 1.0R | 1.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.573% | 1.2R | 1.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -1.035% | 2.2R | 0.7× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 5.25
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.86 | bear_high | -2.94% | -0.63 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 29% | early | — | — | 0.78 | range_medium | +0.75% | -0.18 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | range_low |
35%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near -1.0ATR | near 0.4ATR | 0.61 | bull_low | +1.17% | -0.14 | 17/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.55% | -0.03 | 17/08 21:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 28b | — | 6.524×ATR | p90 | -1.254×ATR | p75 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 1.746×ATR | p0 | -0.217×ATR | p12 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 2.352×ATR | p35 | -0.537×ATR | p36 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 3.527×ATR | p54 | -1.733×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8954
- reason: down_bo width=1.35×ATR dur=41b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)
- stop_price: 1.00017532
- tp_price: 0.9843017
- atr:
- score: 0.82540809214393
- expires_at: 2026-08-18T14:07:34.786342
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82540809214393
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.2883
- obi_top10 : -0.0484
- micro_price : 0.99661995
- spread_pct : 0.010034
- mid_price : 0.99665
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.999
- ask_wall_size : 3397951
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2383
- obi_top5_std : 0.1126
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6949
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.0025
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.99704
- balance_zone_mid:
0.99977
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786874400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787018400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.3471
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
41
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8254
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787014800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.99704
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6829
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3454
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
20
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0040532 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
41
inside_close_ratio
0.6829
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3454
Signaux confirmants (15)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:07 | 0.99564000 | +0.004% |
| 2 | 22:13 | 0.99564000 | +0.004% |
| 3 | 22:19 | 0.99448000 | -0.112% |
| 4 | 22:25 | 0.99448000 | -0.112% |
| 5 | 22:32 | 0.99448000 | -0.112% |
| 6 | 22:37 | 0.99384000 | -0.177% |
| 7 | 22:43 | 0.99384000 | -0.177% |
| 8 | 22:49 | 0.99205000 | -0.357% |
| 9 | 22:55 | 0.99205000 | -0.357% |
| 10 | 23:02 | 0.99205000 | -0.357% |
| 11 | 23:07 | 0.99065000 | -0.497% |
| 12 | 23:13 | 0.99065000 | -0.497% |
| 13 | 00:19 | 0.99238000 | -0.323% |
| 14 | 00:25 | 0.99238000 | -0.323% |
| 15 | 00:31 | 0.99238000 | -0.323% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6949ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
90%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.288
avg -0.238
± 0.113
OBI Top 10
-0.048
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.9967
Micro Price
0.9966
Spread
0.0100%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.9990
Size
3,397,951.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9956 | 1.0002 | 0.9843 | 2.46 | 1.31 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.9956
- Stop Loss: 1.0002
- Take Profit: 0.9843
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0002 - 0.9956 = 0.0045999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.9956 - 0.9843 = 0.0113
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0113 / 0.0045999999999999 = 2.4565
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1756.2421 | 100 | 1763.9329 | 18.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0045999999999999
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0045999999999999 = 1739.13
Taille de position USD = 1739.13 x 0.9956 = 1731.48
Donc, tu peux acheter 1739.13 avec un stoploss a 1.0002
Avec un position size USD de 1731.48$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1739.13 x 0.0045999999999999 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1739.13 x 0.0113 = 19.65
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.65$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1739.13
- Taille de position USD 1731.48
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.65
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4565
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.13 % | 19.93 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.46 % | 8.11 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.11 $ | -0.46 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5725 % | 123.92 % | 18 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9956 | 1.0002 | 0.9843 | 2.46 | 1.31 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.9956
- Stop Loss: 1.0002
- Take Profit: 0.9843
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0002 - 0.9956 = 0.0045999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.9956 - 0.9843 = 0.0113
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0113 / 0.0045999999999999 = 2.4565
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.462%
(0.0046)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.048% | 0.1R | 14.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.048% | 0.1R | 14.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.100% | 0.2R | 7.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.452% | 1.0R | 1.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.714% | 1.6R | -0.573% | 1.2R | 1.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.714% | 1.6R | -1.035% | 2.2R | 0.7× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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