Short Trade on KAITO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 365.85 KAITO at 0.322$ per unit. Take profit: 0.267 (16.98 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3435 (6.81 %)
17 Aug 2026 at 23:39:53
hyperliquid
KAITO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
17 Aug 2026 23:39
→ 10:20
· 10 hours
Position
Entry 0.3216$
Qty 365.8486 KAITO
Size 117.6715$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.267 (+16.98%)
TP $ 19.98$
SL 0.3435 (-6.81%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.49
Status
loss
PnL
-6.81%
/ -8.01$
MAE -8.84%
MFE +0.52%
0.1R
expires
18 Aug 11:39
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 73058)
#43 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 17/08/2026 23:00
score du 17/08/2026 23:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0867
Quality Score
0.456
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
17/08 23:31
17/08 23:31
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#43 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#43 / 47
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.42×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 17/08 23:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 17/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 17/08 23:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.1943
Score SMA
—
Rank
#49
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0434 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.96% · r3d: -13.44% · ema21_slope: -3.3358% · dist_ema21: -48.447% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1026 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.79% · rs_3d: -15.55% · beta_24h: -0.841 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1533 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -1.179 · trend: -26.09% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8329 | ADX: 39.9 (trend) · Chop: 36.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 29.309% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.4564
Score SMA
0.3874
Rank
#43
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0867
Rank Norm SMA
0.0523
Calculé le
17/08/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3345 | r1h: 1.227% · r4h: 0.375% · r1d: -2.43% · r3d: -17.23% · ema21_slope: -0.2171% · dist_ema21: -2.773% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4001 | rs_1h: 1.354% · rs_4h: 0.632% · rs_1d: -3.55% · rs_3d: -18.74% · beta_24h: 2.589 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2679 | rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -0.268 · trend: 14.37% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6832 | ADX: 22.0 (weak) · Chop: 27.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.440% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2102
Score SMA
—
Rank
#49
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0970 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.917% · r1d: -5.08% · r3d: -18.51% · ema21_slope: -1.1475% · dist_ema21: -12.991% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1307 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.748% · rs_1d: -6.63% · rs_3d: -20.65% · beta_24h: 1.399 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1343 | rvol_20: 0.12× · zscore_50: -0.985 · trend: -64.23% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8105 | ADX: 65.3 (trend) · Chop: 61.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 6.440% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.810%
(0.0219)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -1.458% | 0.2R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -1.458% | 0.2R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -3.983% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -5.137% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.522% | 0.1R | -8.843% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -9.602% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.36
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
ranging_calm 60% | late | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.35 | bear_high | -2.94% | -1.00 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 47% | mid | — | — | -0.05 | range_medium | +0.43% | -0.97 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | — | — | 0.02 | bull_low | +0.85% | -0.44 | 17/08 23:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near 0.2ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.22% | -0.22 | 17/08 23:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 20b | — | 11.125×ATR | p94 | -4.026×ATR | p100 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 2.459×ATR | p11 | -2.145×ATR | p75 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 0.933×ATR | p0 | -1.234×ATR | p50 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 2.653×ATR | p25 | -1.36×ATR | p62 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7077
- reason: down_bo width=2.35×ATR dur=48b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.34350697
- tp_price: 0.26697257
- atr:
- score: 0.70772857030759
- expires_at: 2026-08-18T15:39:45.520090
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.70772857030759
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1297
- obi_top10 : 0.0753
- micro_price : 0.32139269
- spread_pct : 0.062267
- mid_price : 0.3213
- bid_wall_price : 0.318
- bid_wall_size : 327150.9
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.323
- ask_wall_size : 258429
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1227
- obi_top5_std : 0.0091
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6895
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.352305
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.33307
- balance_zone_mid:
0.3426875
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786852800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787022000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3472
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
48
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7077
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787004000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.33307
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6458
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
5
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.3948
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
11
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00819472 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
48
inside_close_ratio
0.6458
bars_since_breakout
5
distance_to_edge_atr
1.3948
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:39 | 0.32164000 | +0.012% |
| 2 | 23:46 | 0.32164000 | +0.012% |
| 3 | 23:51 | 0.32242000 | +0.255% |
| 4 | 23:57 | 0.32242000 | +0.255% |
| 5 | 00:04 | 0.32242000 | +0.255% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6895ms
Confidence avant OB :
71%
→
71%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.130
avg 0.123
± 0.009
OBI Top 10
0.075
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.3213
Micro Price
0.3214
Spread
0.0623%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.3180
Size
327,150.90
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.3230
Size
258,429.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3216 | 0.3435 | 0.267 | 2.49 | 0.2773 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3216
- Stop Loss: 0.3435
- Take Profit: 0.267
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3435 - 0.3216 = 0.0219
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3216 - 0.267 = 0.0546
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0546 / 0.0219 = 2.4932
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117.6715 | 100 | 365.8486 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0219
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0219 = 365.3
Taille de position USD = 365.3 x 0.3216 = 117.48
Donc, tu peux acheter 365.3 avec un stoploss a 0.3435
Avec un position size USD de 117.48$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 365.3 x 0.0219 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 365.3 x 0.0546 = 19.95
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.95$
Résumé
- Taille de position 365.3
- Taille de position USD 117.48
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.95
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4932
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 16.98 % | 19.98 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.81 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -6.81 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6213 % | 111.92 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3216 | 0.3435 | 0.267 | 2.49 | 0.2773 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3216
- Stop Loss: 0.3435
- Take Profit: 0.267
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3435 - 0.3216 = 0.0219
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3216 - 0.267 = 0.0546
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0546 / 0.0219 = 2.4932
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.810%
(0.0219)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -1.458% | 0.2R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -1.458% | 0.2R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -3.983% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -5.137% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.522% | 0.1R | -8.843% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.522% | 0.1R | -9.602% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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