Long Trade on XMR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.87 XMR at 416.93$ per unit. Take profit: 427.6238 (2.56 %) & Stop Loss: 412.6525 (1.03 %)
18 Aug 2026 at 12:23:08
hyperliquid
XMR
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
18 Aug 2026 12:23
→ 17:00
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 416.93$
Qty 1.8702 XMR
Size 779.7603$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 427.6238 (+2.56%)
TP $ 20$
SL 412.6525 (-1.03%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.03%
/ -8$
MAE -1.74%
MFE +0.79%
0.8R
expires
19 Aug 00:23
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 73839)
#23 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 12:00
score du 18/08/2026 12:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5661
Quality Score
0.534
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
7.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 12:17
18/08 12:17
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 73839)
#23 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 12:00
score du 18/08/2026 12:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5661
Quality Score
0.534
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#23 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.03 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#23 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.03 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.38×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.76×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
7.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 12:17
18/08 12:17
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 18/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 18/08 11:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1619
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bull
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.83
Transition risk :
0.17
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.65
Snapshot évalué :
18/08 12:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6237
Score SMA
—
Rank
#3
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7831 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.34% · r3d: 0.82% · ema21_slope: 0.7900% · dist_ema21: 7.413% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6376 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.17% · rs_3d: -1.29% · beta_24h: 0.370 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1459 | rvol_20: 0.02× · zscore_50: -1.184 · trend: -31.40% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7583 | ADX: 32.5 (trend) · Chop: 39.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.8648 | ATR%: 3.406% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5344
Score SMA
0.5338
Rank
#23
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5661
Rank Norm SMA
0.5826
Calculé le
18/08/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5743 | r1h: 0.458% · r4h: 1.339% · r1d: 1.05% · r3d: 2.17% · ema21_slope: 0.0057% · dist_ema21: 0.480% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5213 | rs_1h: 0.294% · rs_4h: 0.614% · rs_1d: 0.07% · rs_3d: -0.55% · beta_24h: 0.465 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2432 | rvol_20: 0.37× · zscore_50: -0.792 · trend: 22.03% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5544 | ADX: 13.3 (weak) · Chop: 45.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.855% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5980
Score SMA
0.5475
Rank
#7
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8216
Rank Norm SMA
0.7860
Calculé le
18/08/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6195 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.826% · r1d: 0.54% · r3d: 1.65% · ema21_slope: 0.1259% · dist_ema21: 0.837% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5353 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.871% · rs_1d: -0.27% · rs_3d: -1.03% · beta_24h: -1.081 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5377 | rvol_20: 1.57× · zscore_50: 1.290 · trend: 10.83% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4720 | ADX: 27.7 (trend) · Chop: 70.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.656% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.026%
(4.2775)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.794% | 0.8R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.794% | 0.8R | -0.046% | 0.0R | 17.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.794% | 0.8R | -0.621% | 0.6R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.794% | 0.8R | -1.190% | 1.2R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.794% | 0.8R | -1.737% | 1.7R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.087% | 1.1R | -1.737% | 1.7R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.58
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
71%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | near -0.8ATR | 0.50 | bear_high | -3.14% | +0.90 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | pullback | bull_trend | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.26 | bull_medium_confirmed | +1.37% | -0.05 | 18/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion | bull_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | — | 0.13 | bull_low_confirmed | +1.73% | +0.08 | 18/08 11:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | normal | range_medium |
41%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early | — | near 0.1ATR | 0.14 | bull_low | +1.04% | +0.02 | 18/08 11:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | late | 6b | — | 2.44×ATR | p0 | +1.569×ATR | p85 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 27b | — | 3.269×ATR | p38 | +0.489×ATR | p26 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 2.253×ATR | p36 | +0.53×ATR | p37 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 0.581×ATR | p0 | +1.143×ATR | p57 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8695
- reason: up_bo width=2.08×ATR dur=54b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(+0.07)
- stop_price: 412.65248036
- tp_price: 427.62379911
- atr:
- score: 0.7994538372899
- expires_at: 2026-08-19T04:23:01.314331
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.7994538372899
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.2097
- obi_top10 : 0.1051
- micro_price : 418.07556054
- spread_pct : 0.057434
- mid_price : 417.99
- bid_wall_price : 414
- bid_wall_size : 508.67
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 419
- ask_wall_size : 505.6
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.21
- obi_top5_std : 0.0002
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6821
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
416.5
- balance_zone_bottom:
409.48
- balance_zone_mid:
412.99
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786878000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787068800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.0799
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
54
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7995
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787065200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
416.5
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7222
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1274
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
22
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 3.37519645 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
54
inside_close_ratio
0.7222
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1274
Signaux confirmants (28)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:23 | 416.93000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 12:29 | 416.93000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 12:35 | 416.93000000 | 0% |
| 4 | 12:40 | 418.28000000 | +0.324% |
| 5 | 12:47 | 418.28000000 | +0.324% |
| 6 | 12:53 | 418.42000000 | +0.357% |
| 7 | 12:58 | 418.42000000 | +0.357% |
| 8 | 13:05 | 418.42000000 | +0.357% |
| 9 | 13:10 | 418.28000000 | +0.324% |
| 10 | 13:17 | 418.28000000 | +0.324% |
| 11 | 13:23 | 417.31000000 | +0.091% |
| 12 | 13:28 | 417.31000000 | +0.091% |
| 13 | 13:35 | 417.31000000 | +0.091% |
| 14 | 13:40 | 416.74000000 | -0.046% |
| 15 | 13:47 | 416.74000000 | -0.046% |
| 16 | 13:52 | 418.81000000 | +0.451% |
| 17 | 13:58 | 418.81000000 | +0.451% |
| 18 | 14:06 | 418.81000000 | +0.451% |
| 19 | 14:11 | 417.68000000 | +0.18% |
| 20 | 14:17 | 417.68000000 | +0.18% |
| 21 | 14:23 | 417.71000000 | +0.187% |
| 22 | 14:29 | 417.71000000 | +0.187% |
| 23 | 14:35 | 417.71000000 | +0.187% |
| 24 | 14:40 | 417.21000000 | +0.067% |
| 25 | 14:47 | 417.21000000 | +0.067% |
| 26 | 14:52 | 416.51000000 | -0.101% |
| 27 | 14:58 | 416.51000000 | -0.101% |
| 28 | 15:06 | 416.51000000 | -0.101% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6821ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
87%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.210
avg 0.210
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.105
Microstructure
Mid Price
417.9900
Micro Price
418.0756
Spread
0.0574%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
414.0000
Size
508.67
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
419.0000
Size
505.60
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416.93 | 412.6525 | 427.6238 | 2.5 | 591.59 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 416.93
- Stop Loss: 412.6525
- Take Profit: 427.6238
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 412.6525 - 416.93 = -4.2775
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 416.93 - 427.6238 = -10.6938
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -10.6938 / -4.2775 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 779.7603 | 100 | 1.8702 | 8.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -4.2775
Taille de position = 8 / -4.2775 = -1.87
Taille de position USD = -1.87 x 416.93 = -779.66
Donc, tu peux acheter -1.87 avec un stoploss a 412.6525
Avec un position size USD de -779.66$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -1.87 x -4.2775 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -1.87 x -10.6938 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position -1.87
- Taille de position USD -779.66
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.56 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.03 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.03 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1825 % | 115.25 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416.93 | 412.6525 | 427.6238 | 2.5 | 591.59 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 416.93
- Stop Loss: 412.6525
- Take Profit: 427.6238
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 412.6525 - 416.93 = -4.2775
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 416.93 - 427.6238 = -10.6938
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -10.6938 / -4.2775 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 427.6238
[entry_price] => 416.93
[stop_loss] => 412.22475
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-18 21:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.026%
(4.2775)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.794% | 0.8R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.794% | 0.8R | -0.046% | 0.0R | 17.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.794% | 0.8R | -0.621% | 0.6R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.794% | 0.8R | -1.190% | 1.2R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.794% | 0.8R | -1.737% | 1.7R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.087% | 1.1R | -1.737% | 1.7R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.