Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 7014.53 XPL at 0.0756$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07277 (3.77 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07676 (1.51 %)
18 Aug 2026 at 13:16:42
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
18 Aug 2026 13:16
→ 01:15
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.07562$
Qty 7014.5288 XPL
Size 530.4317$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07277 (+3.77%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.07676 (-1.51%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.63%
/ +3.32$
MAE -0.89%
MFE +1.34%
0.9R
expires
19 Aug 01:16
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 73929)
#44 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 13:00
score du 18/08/2026 13:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5078
Quality Score
0.448
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 13:02
18/08 13:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 73929)
#44 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 13:00
score du 18/08/2026 13:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5078
Quality Score
0.448
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#44 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.51 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#44 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.51 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.55×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 0.66×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 13:02
18/08 13:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 18/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 18/08 12:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1620
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bull
— |
expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
bull
— |
expansion
-1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.83
Transition risk :
0.17
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.65
Snapshot évalué :
18/08 13:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2764
Score SMA
—
Rank
#48
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3345 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.19% · r3d: 0.45% · ema21_slope: -0.2770% · dist_ema21: -1.648% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4444 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.36% · rs_3d: -1.66% · beta_24h: 1.294 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1182 | rvol_20: 0.00× · zscore_50: -1.227 · trend: -73.89% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2701 | ADX: 12.9 (weak) · Chop: 79.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0078 | ATR%: 5.977% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 13:00
Score brut
0.4479
Score SMA
0.5170
Rank
#44
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5078
Rank Norm SMA
0.4910
Calculé le
18/08/2026 13:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4563 | r1h: -1.135% · r4h: -0.266% · r1d: -0.23% · r3d: -1.50% · ema21_slope: 0.0219% · dist_ema21: -0.442% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3823 | rs_1h: -1.036% · rs_4h: -1.146% · rs_1d: -1.28% · rs_3d: -4.15% · beta_24h: 0.732 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2247 | rvol_20: 0.46× · zscore_50: -0.505 · trend: -6.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4697 | ADX: 11.2 (weak) · Chop: 53.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.188% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.4528
Score SMA
0.4589
Rank
#40
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4289
Rank Norm SMA
0.3484
Calculé le
18/08/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4879 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.022% · r1d: -0.03% · r3d: -0.34% · ema21_slope: -0.0194% · dist_ema21: 0.271% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4400 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.023% · rs_1d: -0.83% · rs_3d: -3.02% · beta_24h: 0.726 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1421 | rvol_20: 0.02× · zscore_50: -1.482 · trend: -19.35% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4532 | ADX: 14.8 (weak) · Chop: 59.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.993% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.508%
(0.0011)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.542% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.542% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.312% | 0.9R | -0.542% | 0.4R | 2.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.342% | 0.9R | -0.890% | 0.6R | 1.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.342% | 0.9R | -0.890% | 0.6R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.342% | 0.9R | -6.997% | 4.6R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.96
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late | — | — | 0.51 | bear_high | -3.14% | -0.12 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | range_high |
36%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | near -0.7ATR | 0.40 | bull_medium | +1.45% | -0.40 | 18/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | range_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.36 | bull_low_confirmed | +1.64% | -0.16 | 18/08 12:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | range_medium |
39%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | near -1.6ATR | — | 0.23 | bull_low | +0.87% | -0.16 | 18/08 12:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 45b | — | 8.544×ATR | p91 | -0.226×ATR | p9 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 11b | — | 1.855×ATR | p0 | +0.138×ATR | p9 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -0.361×ATR | p28 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 4b | — | 2.968×ATR | p52 | -1.246×ATR | p64 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8428
- reason: down_bo width=1.89×ATR dur=67b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.07675949
- tp_price: 0.07276777
- atr:
- score: 0.8428438947419
- expires_at: 2026-08-19T05:16:34.896194
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.8428438947419
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0029
- obi_top10 : 0.0388
- micro_price : 0.07581255
- spread_pct : 0.013191
- mid_price : 0.075815
- bid_wall_price : 0.0751
- bid_wall_size : 1101493
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0088
- obi_top5_std : 0.0089
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7147
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.077505
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.075838
- balance_zone_mid:
0.0766715
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786834800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787072400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.8945
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
67
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8428
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787068800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.075838
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6866
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2489
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
12
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
16
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0008799 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
67
inside_close_ratio
0.6866
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2489
Signaux confirmants (31)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:16 | 0.07561900 | -0.001% |
| 2 | 13:22 | 0.07582300 | +0.268% |
| 3 | 13:28 | 0.07582300 | +0.268% |
| 4 | 13:34 | 0.07582300 | +0.268% |
| 5 | 14:10 | 0.07575800 | +0.182% |
| 6 | 14:16 | 0.07575800 | +0.182% |
| 7 | 15:22 | 0.07583000 | +0.278% |
| 8 | 15:28 | 0.07583000 | +0.278% |
| 9 | 15:34 | 0.07583000 | +0.278% |
| 10 | 15:39 | 0.07570200 | +0.108% |
| 11 | 15:46 | 0.07570200 | +0.108% |
| 12 | 15:52 | 0.07559700 | -0.03% |
| 13 | 15:57 | 0.07559700 | -0.03% |
| 14 | 16:05 | 0.07559700 | -0.03% |
| 15 | 16:10 | 0.07521000 | -0.542% |
| 16 | 16:16 | 0.07521000 | -0.542% |
| 17 | 16:22 | 0.07510700 | -0.678% |
| 18 | 16:28 | 0.07510700 | -0.678% |
| 19 | 16:34 | 0.07510700 | -0.678% |
| 20 | 16:39 | 0.07503900 | -0.768% |
| 21 | 16:46 | 0.07503900 | -0.768% |
| 22 | 16:52 | 0.07483300 | -1.041% |
| 23 | 16:58 | 0.07483300 | -1.041% |
| 24 | 17:05 | 0.07483300 | -1.041% |
| 25 | 17:10 | 0.07486600 | -0.997% |
| 26 | 17:16 | 0.07486600 | -0.997% |
| 27 | 17:39 | 0.07473100 | -1.176% |
| 28 | 17:45 | 0.07473100 | -1.176% |
| 29 | 17:51 | 0.07475100 | -1.149% |
| 30 | 17:57 | 0.07475100 | -1.149% |
| 31 | 18:05 | 0.07475100 | -1.149% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7147ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.003
avg 0.009
± 0.009
OBI Top 10
0.039
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0758
Micro Price
0.0758
Spread
0.0132%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0751
Size
1,101,493.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07562 | 0.07676 | 0.07277 | 2.5 | 0.07306 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07562
- Stop Loss: 0.07676
- Take Profit: 0.07277
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07676 - 0.07562 = 0.00114
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07562 - 0.07277 = 0.00285
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00285 / 0.00114 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 530.4317 | 100 | 7014.5288 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00114
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00114 = 7017.54
Taille de position USD = 7017.54 x 0.07562 = 530.67
Donc, tu peux acheter 7017.54 avec un stoploss a 0.07676
Avec un position size USD de 530.67$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 7017.54 x 0.00114 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 7017.54 x 0.00285 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 7017.54
- Taille de position USD 530.67
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.77 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.51 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.32 $ | 0.63 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.89 % | 59.04 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07562 | 0.07676 | 0.07277 | 2.5 | 0.07306 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07562
- Stop Loss: 0.07676
- Take Profit: 0.07277
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07676 - 0.07562 = 0.00114
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07562 - 0.07277 = 0.00285
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00285 / 0.00114 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.508%
(0.0011)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.542% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.542% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.312% | 0.9R | -0.542% | 0.4R | 2.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.342% | 0.9R | -0.890% | 0.6R | 1.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.342% | 0.9R | -0.890% | 0.6R | 1.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.342% | 0.9R | -6.997% | 4.6R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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