Short Trade on ONDO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1355.54 ONDO at 0.325$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3107 (4.55 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3314 (1.81 %)
18 Aug 2026 at 18:20:27
hyperliquid
ONDO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
18 Aug 2026 18:20
→ 06:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.3255$
Qty 1355.5416 ONDO
Size 441.2017$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3107 (+4.55%)
TP $ 20.06$
SL 0.3314 (-1.81%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.51
Status
win
PnL
+0.44%
/ +1.95$
MAE -0.52%
MFE +1.12%
0.6R
expires
19 Aug 06:20
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 74201)
#10 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 18:00
score du 18/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4387
Quality Score
0.536
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 18:16
18/08 18:16
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 74201)
#10 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 18:00
score du 18/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4387
Quality Score
0.536
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#10 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#10 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.03×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.52×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.11×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 18:16
18/08 18:16
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 18/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 18/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1625
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bull
— |
expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
bull
— |
expansion
-1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.83
Transition risk :
0.17
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.65
Snapshot évalué :
18/08 18:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3580
Score SMA
—
Rank
#36
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3073 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.22% · r3d: 3.72% · ema21_slope: -0.6244% · dist_ema21: -3.604% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4938 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.05% · rs_3d: 1.61% · beta_24h: 1.545 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1317 | rvol_20: 0.02× · zscore_50: -1.025 · trend: -70.62% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5157 | ADX: 17.1 (weak) · Chop: 53.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.3866 | ATR%: 4.840% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.5364
Score SMA
0.5080
Rank
#10
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4387
Rank Norm SMA
0.4427
Calculé le
18/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4060 | r1h: -1.010% · r4h: -1.588% · r1d: -2.77% · r3d: 0.05% · ema21_slope: -0.0395% · dist_ema21: -1.598% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3688 | rs_1h: -1.035% · rs_4h: -1.474% · rs_1d: -3.11% · rs_3d: -2.21% · beta_24h: 1.609 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6911 | rvol_20: 2.05× · zscore_50: 2.049 · trend: 29.66% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5615 | ADX: 15.3 (weak) · Chop: 46.4 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.899% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4469
Score SMA
0.4562
Rank
#34
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3723
Rank Norm SMA
0.3785
Calculé le
18/08/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4535 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.042% · r1d: -1.70% · r3d: 2.18% · ema21_slope: 0.0594% · dist_ema21: -0.440% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4561 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.032% · rs_1d: -1.82% · rs_3d: -0.22% · beta_24h: 1.107 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1352 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -1.532 · trend: -22.00% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4650 | ADX: 14.5 (weak) · Chop: 57.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.514% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.813%
(0.0059)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.065% | 0.0R | -0.519% | 0.3R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.627% | 0.4R | -0.522% | 0.3R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.124% | 0.6R | -0.522% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.124% | 0.6R | -0.522% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.124% | 0.6R | -0.522% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.124% | 0.6R | -9.183% | 5.1R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.07
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.62 | bear_high | -2.51% | -0.97 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.50 | bull_medium | +1.12% | -0.18 | 18/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.50 | bull_low | +1.20% | -0.24 | 18/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
54%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | — | — | range_low | +0.31% | -0.12 | 18/08 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 19b | — | 5.795×ATR | p75 | -1.227×ATR | p66 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 2.607×ATR | p21 | -0.536×ATR | p29 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 3.136×ATR | p67 | -1.875×ATR | p88 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 11b | — | 5.697×ATR | p97 | -3.441×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8752
- reason: down_bo width=2.37×ATR dur=24b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.3313817
- tp_price: 0.31072575
- atr:
- score: 0.87517023222943
- expires_at: 2026-08-19T10:20:19.284021
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.87517023222943
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0375
- obi_top10 : 0.1692
- micro_price : 0.32584474
- spread_pct : 0.030694
- mid_price : 0.32585
- bid_wall_price : 0.324
- bid_wall_size : 866292.2
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0398
- obi_top5_std : 0.0014
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7182
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.33444
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.32776
- balance_zone_mid:
0.3311
- balance_zone_start_time:
1787007600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787090400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3713
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
24
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8752
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787086800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.32776
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8333
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.8094
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00281699 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
24
inside_close_ratio
0.8333
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8094
Signaux confirmants (24)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:20 | 0.32548000 | -0.006% |
| 2 | 18:26 | 0.32548000 | -0.006% |
| 3 | 18:32 | 0.32548000 | -0.006% |
| 4 | 18:38 | 0.32617000 | +0.206% |
| 5 | 18:44 | 0.32617000 | +0.206% |
| 6 | 18:50 | 0.32600000 | +0.154% |
| 7 | 18:56 | 0.32600000 | +0.154% |
| 8 | 19:03 | 0.32600000 | +0.154% |
| 9 | 21:38 | 0.32381000 | -0.519% |
| 10 | 21:44 | 0.32381000 | -0.519% |
| 11 | 21:50 | 0.32420000 | -0.399% |
| 12 | 21:56 | 0.32420000 | -0.399% |
| 13 | 22:03 | 0.32420000 | -0.399% |
| 14 | 23:20 | 0.32537000 | -0.04% |
| 15 | 23:26 | 0.32537000 | -0.04% |
| 16 | 23:32 | 0.32537000 | -0.04% |
| 17 | 23:38 | 0.32572000 | +0.068% |
| 18 | 23:44 | 0.32572000 | +0.068% |
| 19 | 23:50 | 0.32599000 | +0.151% |
| 20 | 23:56 | 0.32599000 | +0.151% |
| 21 | 00:03 | 0.32599000 | +0.151% |
| 22 | 00:08 | 0.32520000 | -0.092% |
| 23 | 00:14 | 0.32520000 | -0.092% |
| 24 | 00:20 | 0.32495000 | -0.169% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7182ms
Confidence avant OB :
88%
→
88%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.038
avg 0.040
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.169
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.3259
Micro Price
0.3258
Spread
0.0307%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.3240
Size
866,292.20
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3255 | 0.3314 | 0.3107 | 2.51 | 0.4242 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3255
- Stop Loss: 0.3314
- Take Profit: 0.3107
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3314 - 0.3255 = 0.0059
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3255 - 0.3107 = 0.0148
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0148 / 0.0059 = 2.5085
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 441.2017 | 100 | 1355.5416 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0059
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0059 = 1355.93
Taille de position USD = 1355.93 x 0.3255 = 441.36
Donc, tu peux acheter 1355.93 avec un stoploss a 0.3314
Avec un position size USD de 441.36$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1355.93 x 0.0059 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1355.93 x 0.0148 = 20.07
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.07$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1355.93
- Taille de position USD 441.36
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.07
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5085
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.55 % | 20.06 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.81 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 1.95 $ | 0.44 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5223 % | 28.81 % | 14 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3255 | 0.3314 | 0.3107 | 2.51 | 0.4242 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3255
- Stop Loss: 0.3314
- Take Profit: 0.3107
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3314 - 0.3255 = 0.0059
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3255 - 0.3107 = 0.0148
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0148 / 0.0059 = 2.5085
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.813%
(0.0059)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.065% | 0.0R | -0.519% | 0.3R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.627% | 0.4R | -0.522% | 0.3R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.124% | 0.6R | -0.522% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.124% | 0.6R | -0.522% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.124% | 0.6R | -0.522% | 0.3R | 2.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.124% | 0.6R | -9.183% | 5.1R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.