Short Trade on AAVE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 7.37 AAVE at 87.438$ per unit. Take profit: 84.7231 (3.1 %) & Stop Loss: 88.524 (1.24 %)
19 Aug 2026 at 01:13:27
hyperliquid
AAVE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
19 Aug 2026 01:13
→ 04:35
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 87.438$
Qty 7.3667 AAVE
Size 644.1331$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 84.7231 (+3.1%)
TP $ 20$
SL 88.524 (-1.24%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.24%
/ -8$
MAE -8.11%
MFE +0.18%
0.1R
expires
19 Aug 13:13
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 74656)
#16 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 19/08/2026 01:00
score du 19/08/2026 01:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6900
Quality Score
0.495
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#16 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.24 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#16 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.24 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.72×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.15×ATR |
| 1d | near | -2.37×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
19/08 01:00
19/08 01:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 18/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 19/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 19/08 00:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1632
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.90
Transition risk :
0.10
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.94
Snapshot évalué :
19/08 01:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
18/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3575
Score SMA
—
Rank
#31
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
18/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3565 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.33% · r3d: 1.44% · ema21_slope: -0.3198% · dist_ema21: -2.397% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4631 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.14% · rs_3d: -1.27% · beta_24h: 1.442 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.0944 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -1.584 · trend: -72.82% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3118 | ADX: 13.6 (weak) · Chop: 75.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6914 | ATR%: 3.926% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
19/08/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.4948
Score SMA
0.5130
Rank
#16
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6900
Rank Norm SMA
0.5013
Calculé le
19/08/2026 01:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4848 | r1h: -0.282% · r4h: 0.268% · r1d: -0.98% · r3d: 1.37% · ema21_slope: -0.0582% · dist_ema21: -0.684% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4767 | rs_1h: -0.313% · rs_4h: 0.476% · rs_1d: -1.20% · rs_3d: -0.63% · beta_24h: 0.428 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1308 | rvol_20: 0.12× · zscore_50: -1.037 · trend: -53.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6935 | ADX: 24.9 (weak) · Chop: 40.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.682% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
19/08/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4752
Score SMA
0.4878
Rank
#20
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5187
Rank Norm SMA
0.5857
Calculé le
19/08/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5021 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.208% · r1d: -1.08% · r3d: 1.71% · ema21_slope: 0.0943% · dist_ema21: -0.295% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4633 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.156% · rs_1d: -1.23% · rs_3d: -0.23% · beta_24h: 1.255 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1215 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -1.291 · trend: -44.31% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5630 | ADX: 19.0 (weak) · Chop: 50.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.338% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.242%
(1.0860)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -0.251% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -0.785% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -1.328% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -2.765% | 2.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.176% | 0.1R | -8.110% | 6.5R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -11.564% | 9.3R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.26
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | near -2.4ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -2.62% | -0.86 | 18/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | near -0.2ATR | near 0.4ATR | 0.50 | range_medium | +0.59% | -0.03 | 19/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | range_medium |
40%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.61 | range_low | +0.69% | -0.15 | 19/08 00:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_low |
45%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.55 | range_low | -0.13% | +0.06 | 19/08 00:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 23b | — | 4.489×ATR | p65 | -0.804×ATR | p48 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 2.071×ATR | p4 | -0.203×ATR | p15 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 1.205×ATR | p0 | -1.028×ATR | p62 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 2.276×ATR | p32 | -0.222×ATR | p11 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8073
- reason: down_bo width=2.94×ATR dur=37b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 88.52396193
- tp_price: 84.72309517
- atr:
- score: 0.90733599713655
- expires_at: 2026-08-19T17:13:19.646278
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.90733599713655
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.4225
- obi_top10 : 0.1082
- micro_price : 87.50261905
- spread_pct : 0.011429
- mid_price : 87.505
- bid_wall_price : 87.2
- bid_wall_size : 5888
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 88.3
- ask_wall_size : 5169.6
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.3591
- obi_top5_std : 0.0355
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6821
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
89.319
- balance_zone_bottom:
87.613
- balance_zone_mid:
88.466
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786986000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787115600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9433
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
37
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9073
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787112000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
87.613
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7027
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3019
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.57961932 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
37
inside_close_ratio
0.7027
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3019
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:13 | 87.43800000 | 0% |
| 2 | 01:19 | 87.51900000 | +0.093% |
| 3 | 01:25 | 87.51900000 | +0.093% |
| 4 | 01:31 | 87.51900000 | +0.093% |
| 5 | 01:37 | 87.49000000 | +0.059% |
| 6 | 01:43 | 87.49000000 | +0.059% |
| 7 | 01:49 | 87.54000000 | +0.117% |
| 8 | 01:55 | 87.54000000 | +0.117% |
| 9 | 02:02 | 87.54000000 | +0.117% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6821ms
Confidence avant OB :
91%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.423
avg 0.359
± 0.036
OBI Top 10
0.108
Microstructure
Mid Price
87.5050
Micro Price
87.5026
Spread
0.0114%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
87.2000
Size
5,888.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
88.3000
Size
5,169.60
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.438 | 88.524 | 84.7231 | 2.5 | 129.27 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 87.438
- Stop Loss: 88.524
- Take Profit: 84.7231
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 88.524 - 87.438 = 1.086
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 87.438 - 84.7231 = 2.7149
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 2.7149 / 1.086 = 2.4999
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 644.1331 | 100 | 7.3667 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.086
Taille de position = 8 / 1.086 = 7.37
Taille de position USD = 7.37 x 87.438 = 644.42
Donc, tu peux acheter 7.37 avec un stoploss a 88.524
Avec un position size USD de 644.42$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 7.37 x 1.086 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 7.37 x 2.7149 = 20.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$
Résumé
- Taille de position 7.37
- Taille de position USD 644.42
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.01
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4999
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.1 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.24 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.24 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3278 % | 106.91 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.438 | 88.524 | 84.7231 | 2.5 | 129.27 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 87.438
- Stop Loss: 88.524
- Take Profit: 84.7231
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 88.524 - 87.438 = 1.086
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 87.438 - 84.7231 = 2.7149
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 2.7149 / 1.086 = 2.4999
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.242%
(1.0860)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -0.251% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -0.785% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -1.328% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -2.765% | 2.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.176% | 0.1R | -8.110% | 6.5R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.176% | 0.1R | -11.564% | 9.3R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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