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Short Trade on AR

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28 Sep 2026 at 17:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on AR (momentum_rotation_score)

With 27.52 AR at 4.229$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 4.5197 (6.87 %)

AR SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 28 Sep 2026 17:15 → 20:15 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 4.229$

Qty 27.5182 AR

Size 116.3743$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 116.37$

SL 4.5197 (-6.87%)

SL $ 8$

RR

Status loss PnL -1.55% / -1.81$ MAE -2.75% MFE +1.45% 0.2R expires 28 Sep 20:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 163015)
#89 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 17:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0100

Quality Score
0.368
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 17:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#89 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#89 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 2.70×ATR
4h near -2.01×ATR
1d clear 4.69×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↑ up mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3)

26/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

28/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/09 16:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4301
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range range 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 43.7%
Impulse : +0.01
Participation : mixed_dispersion
Leadership : alts
% Positive (universe)
15m 56.3%
1h 91.6%
4h 46.5%
24h 16.9%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 47.9% +0.06%
4h 56.3% -0.15%
24h 21.1% -4.55%
Dispersion : 0.149
Universe : 71 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 28/09 17:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 27/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6564
Score SMA
0.6733
Rank
#35 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5584
Rank Norm SMA
0.7179
Calculé le
27/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.8045 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.16% · r3d: 4.50% · ema21_slope: 4.7932% · dist_ema21: 24.777%
Force Relative 25% 0.6225 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.19% · rs_3d: 4.44% · beta_24h: 2.180
Volume 20% 0.6025 rvol_20: 1.45× · zscore_50: 1.082 · trend: 83.87%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.9261 ADX: 51.1 (trend) · Chop: 22.5 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.970% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.3682
Score SMA
0.5280
Rank
#89 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0100
Rank Norm SMA
0.3902
Calculé le
28/09/2026 17:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2441 r1h: 0.787% · r4h: -1.416% · r1d: -13.74% · r3d: -9.19% · ema21_slope: -0.3611% · dist_ema21: -3.116%
Force Relative 25% 0.3029 rs_1h: 0.609% · rs_4h: -1.177% · rs_1d: -12.55% · rs_3d: -8.76% · beta_24h: 3.084
Volume 20% 0.1816 rvol_20: 0.38× · zscore_50: -0.293 · trend: -49.15%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5274 ADX: 33.3 (trend) · Chop: 69.1 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.308% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3611
Score SMA
0.5201
Rank
#85 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0739
Rank Norm SMA
0.2738
Calculé le
28/09/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4393 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.787% · r1d: -15.22% · r3d: -8.95% · ema21_slope: -0.0974% · dist_ema21: -7.521%
Force Relative 25% 0.2517 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.775% · rs_1d: -13.63% · rs_3d: -8.19% · beta_24h: 3.106
Volume 20% 0.2157 rvol_20: 0.52× · zscore_50: -0.588 · trend: -11.28%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6622 ADX: 24.5 (weak) · Chop: 43.4 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.2392 ATR%: 5.282% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -6.874% (0.2907)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.454% 0.2R -0.485% 0.1R 3.0× 12
2h +1.454% 0.2R -2.282% 0.3R 0.6× 24
3h ★ +1.454% 0.2R -2.752% 0.4R 0.5× 36
4h +1.454% 0.2R -2.752% 0.4R 0.5× 48
8h +3.100% 0.5R -2.752% 0.4R 1.1× 96
12h +3.100% 0.5R -2.752% 0.4R 1.1× 144

computed 4 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.05
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
60%
noisy_chop 47% mid — — 0.55 bull_high +14.58% +1.00 26/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate fading normal bull_high
50%
noisy_chop 40% mid near -2.0ATR — 0.32 bull_high +1.68% -0.77 28/09 12:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong fading compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 37% mid — — 0.12 range_medium -0.54% -0.71 28/09 16:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate balanced compression bear_high
62%
noisy_chop 41% early — near 0.1ATR 0.47 range_low -0.14% -0.12 28/09 16:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
156444 		↑ up bull_high_confirmed
60%
mid 12b 1.6ATR noisy_chop 47% 0.596

—

—

1.45 value +1.21 ATR — #88062 26/09 20:00
upd 27/09 20:24
4h
164976 		↔ neutral bull_high
50%
mid 6b -1.5ATR noisy_chop 40% 0.510

near -2.0ATR

—

0.52 below_value -3.83 ATR — #91825 28/09 12:00
upd 28/09 16:18
1h anchor
165440 		↓ down bear_high
52%
mid 8b -1.5ATR noisy_chop 37% 0.585

—

—

0.38 below_value -3.58 ATR — #92095 28/09 16:00
upd 28/09 17:11
15m
165357 		↓ down bear_high
62%
early 5b -0.7ATR noisy_chop 41% 0.458

—

near 0.1ATR

0.20 below_value -3.83 ATR — #91825 28/09 16:45
upd 28/09 17:02
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up mid 12b — 4.851×ATR p47 +1.556×ATR p77
4h ↓ down mid 6b — 4.267×ATR p59 -1.514×ATR p72
1h ↓ down mid 8b — 1.779×ATR p19 -1.535×ATR p72
15m ↑ up early 5b — 1.525×ATR p9 -0.716×ATR p37

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 4.51971705
  2. atr: 0.09690568
  3. expires_at: 2026-09-29T00:15:06+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 88
  2. total: 89
  3. score: 0.2512
  4. confidence: 0.989

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
4.229 4.5197 4.4501
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 4.229
  • Stop Loss: 4.5197
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 4.5197 - 4.229 = 0.2907

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 4.229 - = 4.229

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.229 / 0.2907 = 14.5476

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
116.3743 100 27.5182 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.2907

Taille de position = 8 / 0.2907 = 27.52

Taille de position USD = 27.52 x 4.229 = 116.38

Donc, tu peux acheter 27.52 avec un stoploss a 4.5197

Avec un position size USD de 116.38$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 27.52 x 0.2907 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 27.52 x 4.229 = 116.38

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 116.38$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 27.52
  • Taille de position USD 116.38
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 116.38
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 14.5476

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 116.37 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
6.87 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-1.81 $ -1.55
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.7524 % 40.04 % 1
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
4.229 4.5197 4.4501
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 4.229
  • Stop Loss: 4.5197
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 4.5197 - 4.229 = 0.2907

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 4.229 - = 4.229

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.229 / 0.2907 = 14.5476

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -6.874% (0.2907)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.454% 0.2R -0.485% 0.1R 3.0× 12
2h +1.454% 0.2R -2.282% 0.3R 0.6× 24
3h ★ +1.454% 0.2R -2.752% 0.4R 0.5× 36
4h +1.454% 0.2R -2.752% 0.4R 0.5× 48
8h +3.100% 0.5R -2.752% 0.4R 1.1× 96
12h +3.100% 0.5R -2.752% 0.4R 1.1× 144

computed 4 days ago

Commentaires

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