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Short Trade on ARB

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28 Sep 2026 at 17:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ARB (momentum_rotation_score)

With 569.4 ARB at 0.202$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2165 (6.91 %)

ARB SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 28 Sep 2026 17:15 → 20:10 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.2025$

Qty 569.4031 ARB

Size 115.2927$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 115.3$

SL 0.2165 (-6.91%)

SL $ 7.97$

RR

Status win PnL +0.38% / +0.43$ MAE -0.00% MFE +2.72% 0.4R expires 28 Sep 20:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 162978)
#86 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 17:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1408

Quality Score
0.378
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
97 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
34.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 17:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#86 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
97 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.91 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#86 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
97 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.91 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.67×ATR
4h near -1.75×ATR
1d clear 4.32×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

26/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

28/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/09 16:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4301
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range range 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 43.7%
Impulse : +0.01
Participation : mixed_dispersion
Leadership : alts
% Positive (universe)
15m 56.3%
1h 91.6%
4h 46.5%
24h 16.9%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 47.9% +0.06%
4h 56.3% -0.15%
24h 21.1% -4.55%
Dispersion : 0.149
Universe : 71 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 28/09 17:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 27/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6279
Score SMA
0.6324
Rank
#44 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4416
Rank Norm SMA
0.5758
Calculé le
27/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.8507 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.88% · r3d: 4.58% · ema21_slope: 3.6318% · dist_ema21: 18.903%
Force Relative 25% 0.6848 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.85% · rs_3d: 4.52% · beta_24h: 1.704
Volume 20% 0.3102 rvol_20: 0.69× · zscore_50: 0.063 · trend: 6.31%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.9297 ADX: 51.6 (trend) · Chop: 30.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.550% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.3784
Score SMA
0.5143
Rank
#86 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1408
Rank Norm SMA
0.3285
Calculé le
28/09/2026 17:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2579 r1h: 0.651% · r4h: -1.437% · r1d: -11.08% · r3d: -9.60% · ema21_slope: -0.3561% · dist_ema21: -3.370%
Force Relative 25% 0.2947 rs_1h: 0.474% · rs_4h: -1.198% · rs_1d: -9.89% · rs_3d: -9.17% · beta_24h: 2.957
Volume 20% 0.2422 rvol_20: 0.51× · zscore_50: -0.414 · trend: 1.47%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5258 ADX: 24.5 (weak) · Chop: 60.2 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.411% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3782
Score SMA
0.4980
Rank
#81 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1023
Rank Norm SMA
0.2078
Calculé le
28/09/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3967 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.882% · r1d: -11.81% · r3d: -9.72% · ema21_slope: -0.1772% · dist_ema21: -7.434%
Force Relative 25% 0.2312 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.870% · rs_1d: -10.21% · rs_3d: -8.97% · beta_24h: 3.769
Volume 20% 0.4196 rvol_20: 1.42× · zscore_50: -0.065 · trend: 8.03%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5831 ADX: 21.4 (weak) · Chop: 49.9 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.2999 ATR%: 5.100% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -6.914% (0.0140)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.716% 0.4R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +2.716% 0.4R -0.000% 0.0R — 24
3h ★ +2.716% 0.4R -0.000% 0.0R — 36
4h +2.726% 0.4R -0.114% 0.0R 24.0× 48
8h +5.259% 0.8R -0.114% 0.0R 46.3× 96
12h +5.259% 0.8R -2.074% 0.3R 2.5× 144

computed 4 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.16
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high
70%
noisy_chop 41% early — — 0.59 bull_high +14.58% +0.98 26/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading normal bull_high
51%
noisy_chop 39% mid near -1.7ATR — 0.32 bull_high +1.68% -0.76 28/09 12:00
1h ↓ down range bearish_transition moderate balanced normal bear_high
53%
noisy_chop 47% mid — near 0.5ATR 0.25 range_medium -0.54% -0.75 28/09 16:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind normal bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 37% early near -1.0ATR — 0.62 range_low -0.14% -0.04 28/09 16:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
156272 		↑ up bull_high
70%
early 12b 1.4ATR noisy_chop 41% 0.617

—

—

0.69 above_value +0.87 ATR — #88027 26/09 20:00
upd 27/09 20:17
4h
164878 		↔ neutral bull_high
51%
mid 8b -1.5ATR noisy_chop 39% 0.404

near -1.7ATR

—

1.42 below_value -4.17 ATR — #91788 28/09 12:00
upd 28/09 16:14
1h anchor
165402 		↓ down bear_high
53%
mid 3b -1.5ATR noisy_chop 47% 0.569

—

near 0.5ATR

0.51 below_value -3.51 ATR — #92058 28/09 16:00
upd 28/09 17:09
15m
165320 		↓ down bear_high
59%
early 5b -0.8ATR noisy_chop 37% 0.502

near -1.0ATR

—

0.42 below_value -4.17 ATR — #91788 28/09 16:45
upd 28/09 17:00
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 12b — 4.399×ATR p42 +1.39×ATR p57
4h ↓ down mid 8b — 3.513×ATR p54 -1.53×ATR p73
1h ↓ down mid 3b — 1.326×ATR p0 -1.468×ATR p79
15m ↑ up early 5b — 1.224×ATR p3 -0.759×ATR p38

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.2165298
  2. atr: 0.00468327
  3. expires_at: 2026-09-29T00:15:06+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 86
  2. total: 89
  3. score: 0.2579
  4. confidence: 0.966

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2025 0.2165 0.2034
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2025
  • Stop Loss: 0.2165
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2165 - 0.2025 = 0.014

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2025 - = 0.2025

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2025 / 0.014 = 14.4643

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
115.2927 100 569.4031 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.014

Taille de position = 8 / 0.014 = 571.43

Taille de position USD = 571.43 x 0.2025 = 115.71

Donc, tu peux acheter 571.43 avec un stoploss a 0.2165

Avec un position size USD de 115.71$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 571.43 x 0.014 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 571.43 x 0.2025 = 115.71

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 115.71$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 571.43
  • Taille de position USD 115.71
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 115.71
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 14.4643

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 115.3 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
6.91 % 7.97 $
PNL PNL %
0.43 $ 0.38
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
0 % 0 % 0
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2025 0.2165 0.2034
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2025
  • Stop Loss: 0.2165
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2165 - 0.2025 = 0.014

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2025 - = 0.2025

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2025 / 0.014 = 14.4643

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -6.914% (0.0140)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.716% 0.4R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +2.716% 0.4R -0.000% 0.0R — 24
3h ★ +2.716% 0.4R -0.000% 0.0R — 36
4h +2.726% 0.4R -0.114% 0.0R 24.0× 48
8h +5.259% 0.8R -0.114% 0.0R 46.3× 96
12h +5.259% 0.8R -2.074% 0.3R 2.5× 144

computed 4 days ago

Commentaires

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