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Short Trade on NIL

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28 Sep 2026 at 17:45:10 hyperliquid

Short Trade on NIL (momentum_pullback_v1)

With 2535.66 NIL at 0.0863$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08343 (3.29 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08943 (3.66 %)

NIL SHORT momentum_pullback_v1 hyperliquid 28 Sep 2026 17:45 → 21:55 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 0.08627$

Qty 2535.6577 NIL

Size 218.7563$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.08343 (+3.29%)

TP $ 7.2$

SL 0.08943 (-3.66%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 0.9

Status win PnL +3.29% / +7.2$ MAE -2.87% MFE +7.27% 2.0R expires 29 Sep 05:45

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 163036)
#88 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 17:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0185

Quality Score
0.365
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 17:31

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#88 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.66 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#88 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.66 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 3.76×ATR
4h near -0.78×ATR
1d clear 3.55×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up early OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3)

26/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

28/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/09 16:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4303
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range range 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 33.8%
Impulse : +0.01
Participation : mixed_dispersion
Leadership : mixed
% Positive (universe)
15m 48.6%
1h 84.7%
4h 27.8%
24h 19.4%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 47.2% +0.00%
4h 41.7% -0.50%
24h 20.8% -4.98%
Dispersion : 0.114
Universe : 72 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 28/09 17:31 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 27/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6131
Score SMA
0.7052
Rank
#48 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3896
Rank Norm SMA
0.7792
Calculé le
27/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7326 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -4.10% · r3d: -11.08% · ema21_slope: 6.6537% · dist_ema21: 34.241%
Force Relative 25% 0.6056 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.13% · rs_3d: -11.15% · beta_24h: 0.501
Volume 20% 0.5319 rvol_20: 1.11× · zscore_50: 0.525 · trend: 182.77%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.9036 ADX: 48.4 (trend) · Chop: 1.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 15.578% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.3650
Score SMA
0.5201
Rank
#88 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0185
Rank Norm SMA
0.3900
Calculé le
28/09/2026 17:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2807 r1h: 0.086% · r4h: 1.566% · r1d: -13.31% · r3d: -25.13% · ema21_slope: -0.4546% · dist_ema21: -1.701%
Force Relative 25% 0.2838 rs_1h: -0.092% · rs_4h: 1.805% · rs_1d: -12.13% · rs_3d: -24.70% · beta_24h: 2.542
Volume 20% 0.1635 rvol_20: 0.42× · zscore_50: -0.548 · trend: -55.01%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6010 ADX: 40.1 (trend) · Chop: 67.0 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.8701 ATR%: 3.390% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3707
Score SMA
0.5925
Rank
#83 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0398
Rank Norm SMA
0.5314
Calculé le
28/09/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4737 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 3.866% · r1d: -13.59% · r3d: -27.79% · ema21_slope: -0.7870% · dist_ema21: -10.983%
Force Relative 25% 0.4558 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 3.878% · rs_1d: -12.00% · rs_3d: -27.03% · beta_24h: 7.724
Volume 20% 0.1539 rvol_20: 0.44× · zscore_50: -0.692 · trend: -53.48%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5590 ADX: 25.3 (trend) · Chop: 57.0 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 10.159% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.663% (0.0032)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.407% 0.1R -1.297% 0.4R 0.3× 12
2h +0.407% 0.1R -2.867% 0.8R 0.1× 24
4h +0.407% 0.1R -2.867% 0.8R 0.1× 48
8h +7.268% 2.0R -2.867% 0.8R 2.5× 96
12h ★ +7.268% 2.0R -2.867% 0.8R 2.5× 144

computed 4 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.92
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
64%
noisy_chop 47% mid — — 0.30 bull_high +14.58% +1.00 26/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong grind compression bull_high
50%
noisy_chop 51% mid near -0.8ATR — 0.12 bull_high +1.68% -1.00 28/09 12:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong fading compression bear_high
53%
noisy_chop 33% early — — 0.09 range_medium -0.54% -0.56 28/09 16:00
15m ↓ down transition bullish_transition moderate grind compression bear_high
61%
noisy_chop 42% early near -1.3ATR — 0.29 range_low -0.23% -0.02 28/09 17:15
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
156502 		↑ up bull_high_confirmed
64%
mid 3b 1.4ATR noisy_chop 47% 0.826

—

—

1.11 value -4.96 ATR inside #88081 26/09 20:00
upd 27/09 20:26
4h
165040 		↔ neutral bull_high
50%
mid 19b -1.4ATR noisy_chop 51% 0.629

near -0.8ATR

—

0.44 below_value -8.69 ATR — #91846 28/09 12:00
upd 28/09 16:21
1h anchor
165461 		↓ down bear_high
53%
early 5b -0.6ATR noisy_chop 33% 0.727

—

—

0.42 below_value -8.89 ATR — #92116 28/09 16:00
upd 28/09 17:12
15m
165642 		↓ down bear_high
61%
early 3b -0.7ATR noisy_chop 42% 0.485

near -1.3ATR

—

0.39 below_value -8.89 ATR — #92116 28/09 17:15
upd 28/09 17:33
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 3b — 3.26×ATR p27 +1.402×ATR p79
4h ↓ down mid 19b — 5.895×ATR p78 -1.435×ATR p70
1h ↑ up early 5b — 1.928×ATR p24 -0.554×ATR p20
15m ↓ down early 3b — 2.346×ATR p33 -0.681×ATR p32

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_pullback_v1 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.089427
  2. tp_price: 0.08342673
  3. atr: 0.00113811
  4. expires_at: 2026-09-29T09:45:10+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 80
  2. total: 89
  3. score: 0.2807
  4. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0185
  5. rank_velocity: 0.0838
  6. pullback_depth_atr: 6.53
  7. trigger_price: 0.086729
  8. fip_24h: 0
  9. confidence: 0.898
  10. market_structures
  11. market_structures
  12. 15m_version: 1.1
  13. 15m_market_structure: 
    Array
(
    [left_window] => 5
    [right_window] => 5
    [recent_pivots] => Array
        (
            [0] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 05:45:00
                    [1] => 0.090679
                    [2] => H
                )

            [1] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 07:15:00
                    [1] => 0.084695
                    [2] => L
                )

            [2] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 09:00:00
                    [1] => 0.085792
                    [2] => L
                )

            [3] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 10:45:00
                    [1] => 0.083559
                    [2] => L
                )

            [4] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 12:00:00
                    [1] => 0.088809
                    [2] => H
                )

            [5] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 15:45:00
                    [1] => 0.082
                    [2] => L
                )

            [6] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 17:45:00
                    [1] => 0.088831
                    [2] => H
                )

            [7] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 18:30:00
                    [1] => 0.086384
                    [2] => L
                )

            [8] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 20:30:00
                    [1] => 0.089427
                    [2] => H
                )

            [9] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 21:30:00
                    [1] => 0.086192
                    [2] => L
                )

        )

    [detected_trend] => range
    [features] => Array
        (
            [ms_trend_state] => 0
            [ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -3.5280172654791
            [ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 0.092816038611468
            [ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 4
            [ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 0
            [ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 3.7532485613514
            [ms_bos_up] => 1
            [ms_bos_down] => 1
            [ms_choch_up] => 0
            [ms_choch_down] => 0
        )

)
  14. market_structures
  15. 1H_version: 1.1
  16. 1H_market_structure: 
    Array
(
    [left_window] => 5
    [right_window] => 5
    [recent_pivots] => Array
        (
            [0] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-24 08:00:00
                    [1] => 0.14603
                    [2] => H
                )

            [1] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-24 13:00:00
                    [1] => 0.10623
                    [2] => L
                )

            [2] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-25 06:00:00
                    [1] => 0.10256
                    [2] => L
                )

            [3] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-25 12:00:00
                    [1] => 0.14015
                    [2] => H
                )

            [4] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-26 23:00:00
                    [1] => 0.10735
                    [2] => H
                )

            [5] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-27 05:00:00
                    [1] => 0.094705
                    [2] => L
                )

            [6] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-27 09:00:00
                    [1] => 0.11422
                    [2] => H
                )

            [7] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-27 14:00:00
                    [1] => 0.10009
                    [2] => L
                )

            [8] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 15:00:00
                    [1] => 0.082
                    [2] => L
                )

            [9] => Array
                (
                    [0] => 2026-09-28 20:00:00
                    [1] => 0.089427
                    [2] => H
                )

        )

    [detected_trend] => downtrend
    [features] => Array
        (
            [ms_trend_state] => -1
            [ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -2.8470148836481
            [ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 5.9524390243902
            [ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 1
            [ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 6
            [ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 9.0573170731707
            [ms_bos_up] => 0
            [ms_bos_down] => 1
            [ms_choch_up] => 0
            [ms_choch_down] => 1
        )

)
    17. ¸

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 17:45 0.08627200 +0.002%
2 18:00 0.08628500 +0.017%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 1

15M - range

Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5

Market Structure Features:

Trend State
0
Dist From Last High Pct
-3.53%
Dist From Last Low Pct
0.09%
Bars Since Swing High
4 bars
Bars Since Swing Low
0 bars
Last Swing Amplitude Pct
3.75%
Bos Up
1
Bos Down
1
Choch Up
0
Choch Down
0

SL & TP Pivot Distance:

SL to Pivot Distance
0.0012
1.40%
TP to Pivot Distance
0.0014
1.71%
DateTime Price Type
2026-09-28 05:45:00 0.090679 ↑ High
2026-09-28 07:15:00 0.084695 ↓ Low
2026-09-28 09:00:00 0.085792 ↓ Low
2026-09-28 10:45:00 0.083559 ↓ Low
2026-09-28 12:00:00 0.088809 ↑ High
2026-09-28 15:45:00 0.082 ↓ Low
2026-09-28 17:45:00 0.088831 ↑ High
2026-09-28 18:30:00 0.086384 ↓ Low
2026-09-28 20:30:00 0.089427 ↑ High
2026-09-28 21:30:00 0.086192 ↓ Low
1H - downtrend

Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5

Market Structure Features:

Trend State
-1
Dist From Last High Pct
-2.85%
Dist From Last Low Pct
5.95%
Bars Since Swing High
1 bars
Bars Since Swing Low
6 bars
Last Swing Amplitude Pct
9.06%
Bos Up
0
Bos Down
1
Choch Up
0
Choch Down
1

SL & TP Pivot Distance:

SL to Pivot Distance
0.0566
63.29%
TP to Pivot Distance
0.0014
1.71%
DateTime Price Type
2026-09-24 08:00:00 0.14603 ↑ High
2026-09-24 13:00:00 0.10623 ↓ Low
2026-09-25 06:00:00 0.10256 ↓ Low
2026-09-25 12:00:00 0.14015 ↑ High
2026-09-26 23:00:00 0.10735 ↑ High
2026-09-27 05:00:00 0.094705 ↓ Low
2026-09-27 09:00:00 0.11422 ↑ High
2026-09-27 14:00:00 0.10009 ↓ Low
2026-09-28 15:00:00 0.082 ↓ Low
2026-09-28 20:00:00 0.089427 ↑ High

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.08627 0.08943 0.08343 0.9 0.08386
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.08627
  • Stop Loss: 0.08943
  • Take Profit: 0.08343

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.08943 - 0.08627 = 0.00316

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.08627 - 0.08343 = 0.00284

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00284 / 0.00316 = 0.8987

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
218.7563 100 2535.6577 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00316

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00316 = 2531.65

Taille de position USD = 2531.65 x 0.08627 = 218.41

Donc, tu peux acheter 2531.65 avec un stoploss a 0.08943

Avec un position size USD de 218.41$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 2531.65 x 0.00316 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 2531.65 x 0.00284 = 7.19

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 7.19$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 2531.65
  • Taille de position USD 218.41
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 7.19
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.8987

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
3.29 % 7.2 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.66 % 8.01 $
PNL PNL %
7.2 $ 3.29
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.8666 % 78.26 % 4
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.08627 0.08943 0.08343 0.9 0.08386
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.08627
  • Stop Loss: 0.08943
  • Take Profit: 0.08343

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.08943 - 0.08627 = 0.00316

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.08627 - 0.08343 = 0.00284

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00284 / 0.00316 = 0.8987

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.663% (0.0032)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.407% 0.1R -1.297% 0.4R 0.3× 12
2h +0.407% 0.1R -2.867% 0.8R 0.1× 24
4h +0.407% 0.1R -2.867% 0.8R 0.1× 48
8h +7.268% 2.0R -2.867% 0.8R 2.5× 96
12h ★ +7.268% 2.0R -2.867% 0.8R 2.5× 144

computed 4 days ago

Commentaires

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