Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 13124.22 PENGU at 0.00937$ per unit. Take profit: 0.009141 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.009985 (6.51 %)
28 Sep 2026 at 19:15:09
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
28 Sep 2026 19:15
→ 21:25
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 0.009375$
Qty 13124.2207 PENGU
Size 123.0396$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.009141 (+2.5%)
TP $ 3.07$
SL 0.009985 (-6.51%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 0.38
Status
win
PnL
+2.50%
/ +3.07$
MAE -1.33%
MFE +4.17%
0.6R
expires
29 Sep 01:15
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 163210)
#88 / 90
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 19:00
score du 28/09/2026 19:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3975
Quality Score
0.360
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
13.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 19:01
28/09 19:01
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#88 / 90
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-6
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.51 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#88 / 90
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-6
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.51 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.77×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.62×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 4.68×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | late | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3) 26/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 28/09 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 28/09 18:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4309
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic | bull | expansion | 0.90 | -2 |
| Operational | range | range | 0.25 | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | 0.25 | 0 |
| Micro | range | range | 0.25 |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
19.4%
Impulse :
+0.01
Participation :
btc_led_risk_on
Leadership :
btc
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 62.2% |
| 1h | 66.2% |
| 4h | 8.1% |
| 24h | 17.6% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 62.2% | +0.02% |
| 4h | 27.0% | -1.84% |
| 24h | 20.3% | -5.06% |
Dispersion :
0.214
Universe :
74
(≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
28/09 19:01
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
27/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6765
Score SMA
0.6151
Rank
#31
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6104
Rank Norm SMA
0.4922
Calculé le
27/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.8893 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 3.47% · r3d: 5.60% · ema21_slope: 1.4741% · dist_ema21: 16.992% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.7272 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 3.44% · rs_3d: 5.54% · beta_24h: 1.568 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5401 | rvol_20: 1.46× · zscore_50: 0.549 · trend: 62.20% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7991 | ADX: 35.9 (trend) · Chop: 27.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.077% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
28/09/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3597
Score SMA
0.5872
Rank
#88
/ 90
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3975
Rank Norm SMA
0.5799
Calculé le
28/09/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2742 | r1h: 0.485% · r4h: -3.529% · r1d: -7.36% · r3d: -9.38% · ema21_slope: -0.2050% · dist_ema21: -3.107% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2882 | rs_1h: 0.091% · rs_4h: -2.898% · rs_1d: -6.59% · rs_3d: -8.75% · beta_24h: 3.821 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2009 | rvol_20: 0.11× · zscore_50: -0.815 · trend: -8.60% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5766 | ADX: 21.6 (weak) · Chop: 51.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.766% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
28/09/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4590
Score SMA
0.6407
Rank
#66
/ 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4034
Rank Norm SMA
0.6537
Calculé le
28/09/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4328 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.474% · r1d: -8.16% · r3d: -9.21% · ema21_slope: -0.0541% · dist_ema21: -5.603% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3415 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.462% · rs_1d: -6.57% · rs_3d: -8.46% · beta_24h: 3.484 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4981 | rvol_20: 1.60× · zscore_50: 0.211 · trend: 30.61% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7526 | ADX: 40.1 (trend) · Chop: 48.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.3132 | ATR%: 5.061% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -6.507%
(0.0006)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.333% | 0.2R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.059% | 0.3R | -1.333% | 0.2R | 1.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +4.171% | 0.6R | -1.333% | 0.2R | 3.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +4.171% | 0.6R | -1.333% | 0.2R | 3.1× | 72 |
| 8h | +4.171% | 0.6R | -1.717% | 0.3R | 2.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +4.171% | 0.6R | -3.701% | 0.6R | 1.1× | 144 |
computed 3 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.46
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
58%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.73 | bull_high | +14.58% | +0.86 | 26/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion | bull_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | — | — | 0.57 | bull_high | +1.68% | -0.55 | 28/09 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.49 | range_medium | -0.51% | -0.61 | 28/09 18:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 50% | early | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.78 | range_low | -0.09% | -0.33 | 28/09 18:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Regime | Tradability | Move | PAQ | Momentum | Near S/D | RVOL | Vol zone | POC dist | LVN | VP ref | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
156484 |
↑ up | bull_high_confirmed |
58%
|
late 12b 1.7ATR | noisy_chop 43% | 0.690 |
— — |
1.46 | above_value | -0.33 ATR | — | #88075 |
26/09 20:00
upd 27/09 20:25
|
|
4h
165022 |
↔ neutral | bull_high |
49%
|
mid 7b -1.2ATR | noisy_chop 34% | 0.421 |
— — |
1.60 | below_value | -3.19 ATR | — | #91840 |
28/09 12:00
upd 28/09 16:20
|
|
1h
anchor
166355 |
↓ down | bear_high |
53%
|
early 5b -1.1ATR | noisy_chop 39% | 0.494 |
— — |
0.11 | below_value | -3.16 ATR | — | #92474 |
28/09 18:00
upd 28/09 19:12
|
|
15m
166268 |
↓ down | bear_high |
64%
|
early 7b -0.9ATR | noisy_chop 50% | 0.549 |
near -0.4ATR — |
0.05 | below_value | -3.21 ATR | — | #92292 |
28/09 18:45
upd 28/09 19:03
|
|
5m
|
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade | ||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | late | 12b | — | 4.34×ATR | p53 | +1.706×ATR | p82 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 3.599×ATR | p50 | -1.201×ATR | p54 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 5b | — | 1.924×ATR | p27 | -1.074×ATR | p54 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 1.716×ATR | p7 | -0.857×ATR | p43 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.00998456
- tp_price: 0.00914062
- atr: 0.00024383
- expires_at: 2026-09-29T05:15:09+00:00
Details
- rank: 86
- total: 90
- score: 0.2432
- delta_2h: -0.1193
- extension_atr: -0.87
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.3947
- confidence: 0.955
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.009375 | 0.009985 | 0.009141 | 0.38 | 0.008952 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.009375
- Stop Loss: 0.009985
- Take Profit: 0.009141
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.009985 - 0.009375 = 0.00061
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.009375 - 0.009141 = 0.000234
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000234 / 0.00061 = 0.3836
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123.0396 | 100 | 13124.2207 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00061
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00061 = 13114.75
Taille de position USD = 13114.75 x 0.009375 = 122.95
Donc, tu peux acheter 13114.75 avec un stoploss a 0.009985
Avec un position size USD de 122.95$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 13114.75 x 0.00061 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 13114.75 x 0.000234 = 3.07
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.07$
Résumé
- Taille de position 13114.75
- Taille de position USD 122.95
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 3.07
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3836
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 3.07 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.51 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.07 $ | 2.50 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3333 % | 20.49 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.009375 | 0.009985 | 0.009141 | 0.38 | 0.008952 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.009375
- Stop Loss: 0.009985
- Take Profit: 0.009141
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.009985 - 0.009375 = 0.00061
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.009375 - 0.009141 = 0.000234
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000234 / 0.00061 = 0.3836
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -6.507%
(0.0006)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.333% | 0.2R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.059% | 0.3R | -1.333% | 0.2R | 1.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +4.171% | 0.6R | -1.333% | 0.2R | 3.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +4.171% | 0.6R | -1.333% | 0.2R | 3.1× | 72 |
| 8h | +4.171% | 0.6R | -1.717% | 0.3R | 2.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +4.171% | 0.6R | -3.701% | 0.6R | 1.1× | 144 |
computed 3 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.