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Short Trade on ARB

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28 Sep 2026 at 20:15:08 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ARB (momentum_rotation_score)

With 598.17 ARB at 0.202$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2153 (6.64 %)

ARB SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 28 Sep 2026 20:15 → 23:10 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.2019$

Qty 598.1693 ARB

Size 120.7883$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 120.77$

SL 0.2153 (-6.64%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR

Status win PnL +3.36% / +4.06$ MAE -0.41% MFE +4.98% 0.8R expires 28 Sep 23:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 163247)
#89 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 20:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1005

Quality Score
0.365
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
33.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 20:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#89 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.64 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#89 / 89 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
99 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.64 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.61×ATR
4h near -1.71×ATR
1d clear 4.32×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

26/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

28/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/09 19:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4313
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range transition 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 64.8%
Impulse : +0.00
Participation : broad_risk_on
Leadership : alts
% Positive (universe)
15m 53.4%
1h 89.0%
4h 84.9%
24h 16.4%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 53.4% +0.01%
4h 75.3% +0.98%
24h 19.2% -4.61%
Dispersion : 0.184
Universe : 73 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 28/09 20:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 27/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6279
Score SMA
0.6324
Rank
#44 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4416
Rank Norm SMA
0.5758
Calculé le
27/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.8507 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.88% · r3d: 4.58% · ema21_slope: 3.6318% · dist_ema21: 18.903%
Force Relative 25% 0.6848 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.85% · rs_3d: 4.52% · beta_24h: 1.704
Volume 20% 0.3102 rvol_20: 0.69× · zscore_50: 0.063 · trend: 6.31%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.9297 ADX: 51.6 (trend) · Chop: 30.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.550% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3645
Score SMA
0.5113
Rank
#89 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1005
Rank Norm SMA
0.3242
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2947 r1h: 0.368% · r4h: 0.418% · r1d: -10.77% · r3d: -10.92% · ema21_slope: -0.3291% · dist_ema21: -2.621%
Force Relative 25% 0.3188 rs_1h: 0.428% · rs_4h: 0.294% · rs_1d: -9.61% · rs_3d: -10.20% · beta_24h: 3.040
Volume 20% 0.1666 rvol_20: 0.13× · zscore_50: -1.071 · trend: -21.49%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5874 ADX: 26.7 (trend) · Chop: 54.9 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.268% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3671
Score SMA
0.4933
Rank
#83 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0682
Rank Norm SMA
0.2053
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4344 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.418% · r1d: -10.77% · r3d: -10.92% · ema21_slope: -0.2300% · dist_ema21: -6.448%
Force Relative 25% 0.2580 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.294% · rs_1d: -9.61% · rs_3d: -10.20% · beta_24h: 3.786
Volume 20% 0.2869 rvol_20: 0.90× · zscore_50: -0.545 · trend: -5.05%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6028 ADX: 21.4 (weak) · Chop: 47.5 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.3491 ATR%: 4.953% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -6.637% (0.0134)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.437% 0.4R -0.411% 0.1R 5.9× 12
2h +4.978% 0.8R -0.411% 0.1R 12.1× 24
3h ★ +4.978% 0.8R -0.411% 0.1R 12.1× 36
4h +4.978% 0.8R -0.411% 0.1R 12.1× 48
8h +4.978% 0.8R -1.669% 0.3R 3.0× 96
12h +4.978% 0.8R -7.103% 1.1R 0.7× 144

computed 2 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 5.49
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high
70%
noisy_chop 41% early — — 0.59 bull_high +14.58% +0.98 26/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading normal bull_high
51%
noisy_chop 39% mid near -1.7ATR — 0.32 bull_high +1.77% -0.69 28/09 16:00
1h ↓ down range range moderate balanced compression bear_high
53%
noisy_chop 43% mid — — 0.25 range_medium -0.56% -0.54 28/09 19:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind compression bear_high
60%
noisy_chop 41% early — near -1.4ATR 0.63 range_low -0.14% -0.18 28/09 19:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
156272 		↑ up bull_high
70%
early 12b 1.4ATR noisy_chop 41% 0.617

—

—

0.69 above_value +0.87 ATR — #88027 26/09 20:00
upd 27/09 20:17
4h
166759 		↔ neutral bull_high
51%
mid 9b -1.4ATR noisy_chop 39% 0.399

near -1.7ATR

—

0.90 below_value -3.59 ATR — #92602 28/09 16:00
upd 28/09 20:14
1h anchor
166758 		↓ down bear_high
53%
mid 6b -1.2ATR noisy_chop 43% 0.562

—

—

0.13 below_value -3.59 ATR — #92602 28/09 19:00
upd 28/09 20:14
15m
166669 		↓ down bear_high
60%
early 7b 0.1ATR noisy_chop 41% 0.487

—

near -1.4ATR

0.11 below_value -3.58 ATR — #92421 28/09 19:45
upd 28/09 20:01
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 12b — 4.399×ATR p42 +1.39×ATR p57
4h ↓ down mid 9b — 3.519×ATR p54 -1.353×ATR p61
1h ↓ down mid 6b — 1.515×ATR p0 -1.234×ATR p72
15m ↑ up early 7b — 2.792×ATR p49 +0.096×ATR p4

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.21530414
  2. atr: 0.00445805
  3. expires_at: 2026-09-29T03:15:08+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 89
  2. total: 90
  3. score: 0.2615
  4. confidence: 0.989

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2019 0.2153 0.1941
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2019
  • Stop Loss: 0.2153
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2153 - 0.2019 = 0.0134

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2019 - = 0.2019

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2019 / 0.0134 = 15.0672

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
120.7883 100 598.1693 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0134

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0134 = 597.01

Taille de position USD = 597.01 x 0.2019 = 120.54

Donc, tu peux acheter 597.01 avec un stoploss a 0.2153

Avec un position size USD de 120.54$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 597.01 x 0.0134 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 597.01 x 0.2019 = 120.54

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 120.54$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 597.01
  • Taille de position USD 120.54
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 120.54
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 15.0672

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 120.77 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
6.64 % 8.02 $
PNL PNL %
4.06 $ 3.36
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.4111 % 6.19 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2019 0.2153 0.1941
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2019
  • Stop Loss: 0.2153
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2153 - 0.2019 = 0.0134

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2019 - = 0.2019

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2019 / 0.0134 = 15.0672

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -6.637% (0.0134)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +2.437% 0.4R -0.411% 0.1R 5.9× 12
2h +4.978% 0.8R -0.411% 0.1R 12.1× 24
3h ★ +4.978% 0.8R -0.411% 0.1R 12.1× 36
4h +4.978% 0.8R -0.411% 0.1R 12.1× 48
8h +4.978% 0.8R -1.669% 0.3R 3.0× 96
12h +4.978% 0.8R -7.103% 1.1R 0.7× 144

computed 2 days ago

Commentaires

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