Short Trade on XPL

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28 Sep 2026 at 22:15:07 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1291.01 XPL at 0.0954$ per unit. Take profit: 0.093 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1016 (6.52 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 28 Sep 2026 22:15 → 04:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.09538$

Qty 1291.0056 XPL

Size 123.1387$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.093 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.07$

SL 0.1016 (-6.52%)

SL $ 8.03$

RR 0.38

Status loss PnL -5.73% / -7.06$ MAE -6.45% MFE +1.60% 0.3R expires 29 Sep 04:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 163664)

#88 / 90 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1220

Quality Score

0.329

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

97 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

42.1M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 22:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#88 / 90 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

97 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-1

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-5 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

6.52 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#88 / 90 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

97 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-5 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

6.52 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	3.33×ATR
4h	clear	1.04×ATR
1d	clear	0.72×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (+1) 24/09 15:01 Score : -1

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (+1)

24/09 15:01

Score : -1

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 28/09 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 28/09 21:00 Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

28/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/09 21:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4321

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	bear	transition	0.55	+1
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -1

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 23.6%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : btc_led_risk_on

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	66.7%
1h	2.8%
4h	25.0%
24h	16.7%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	65.3%	+0.10%
4h	33.3%	-0.83%
24h	22.2%	-4.81%

Dispersion : 0.204

Universe : 72 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 28/09 22:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5036

Score SMA

0.6229

Rank

#72 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1932

Rank Norm SMA

0.4792

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5956	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -7.45% · r3d: -14.33% · ema21_slope: 1.1285% · dist_ema21: 2.343%
Force Relative	25%	0.3596	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -6.29% · rs_3d: -13.61% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume	20%	0.6607	rvol_20: 1.57× · zscore_50: 1.343 · trend: 134.12%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6859	ADX: 23.9 (weak) · Chop: 39.8 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.100% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 28/09/2026 22:00

Score brut

0.3288

Score SMA

0.5356

Rank

#88 / 90

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1220

Rank Norm SMA

0.3946

Calculé le

28/09/2026 22:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1851	r1h: -2.068% · r4h: -1.242% · r1d: -7.62% · r3d: -15.88% · ema21_slope: -0.3299% · dist_ema21: -4.168%
Force Relative	25%	0.1888	rs_1h: -1.937% · rs_4h: -1.065% · rs_1d: -6.88% · rs_3d: -14.68% · beta_24h: 3.500
Volume	20%	0.4113	rvol_20: 1.57× · zscore_50: 0.269 · trend: -33.34%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5866	ADX: 29.1 (trend) · Chop: 57.5 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.744% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3444

Score SMA

0.5430

Rank

#86 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0455

Rank Norm SMA

0.3399

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4374	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.158% · r1d: -7.45% · r3d: -14.33% · ema21_slope: -0.3026% · dist_ema21: -6.109%
Force Relative	25%	0.3333	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.034% · rs_1d: -6.29% · rs_3d: -13.61% · beta_24h: 1.002
Volume	20%	0.1736	rvol_20: 0.23× · zscore_50: -1.047 · trend: -17.44%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6026	ADX: 22.4 (weak) · Chop: 48.6 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0478	ATR%: 5.857% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -6.521% (0.0062)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.601%	0.3R	-0.581%	0.1R	2.8×	12
2h	+1.601%	0.3R	-2.197%	0.3R	0.7×	24
4h	+1.601%	0.3R	-2.659%	0.4R	0.6×	48
6h ★	+1.601%	0.3R	-6.448%	1.0R	0.3×	72
8h	+1.601%	0.3R	-7.486%	1.2R	0.2×	96
12h	+1.601%	0.3R	-7.675%	1.2R	0.2×	144

computed 1 day ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.77

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	56%	noisy_chop 40%	early	—	near -0.4ATR	0.54	bull_high	+12.96%	-0.56	27/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	48%	noisy_chop 43%	mid	—	—	0.48	bull_high	+1.77%	-0.80	28/09 16:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	balanced	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 44%	mid	—	—	0.41	bear_medium	-1.03%	-0.69	28/09 21:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	balanced	normal	bear_high_confirmed	59%	noisy_chop 46%	late	—	—	0.67	range_low	-0.58%	-0.29	28/09 21:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 167080	↑ up	bull_high	56%	early 3b 0.2ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.695	— near -0.4ATR	1.57	below_value	-5.08 ATR	—	#92664	27/09 20:00 upd 28/09 20:30
4h 167005	↔ neutral	bull_high	48%	mid 15b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.561	— —	0.23	below_value	-5.08 ATR	—	#92664	28/09 16:00 upd 28/09 20:27
1h anchor 167893	↓ down	bear_high	57%	mid 7b -1.5ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.534	— —	1.57	below_value	-6.01 ATR	—	#93116	28/09 21:00 upd 28/09 22:14
15m 167804	↓ down	bear_high_confirmed	59%	late 5b -1.6ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.575	— —	1.60	below_value	-5.44 ATR	—	#92934	28/09 21:45 upd 28/09 22:04
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	3b	—	2.302×ATR	p0	+0.179×ATR	p10
4h	↓ down	mid	15b	—	4.196×ATR	p63	-1.244×ATR	p74
1h	↓ down	mid	7b	—	2.411×ATR	p40	-1.517×ATR	p76
15m	↓ down	late	5b	—	3.054×ATR	p60	-1.646×ATR	p88

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.10157872
tp_price: 0.09299745
atr: 0.00247869
expires_at: 2026-09-29T08:15:07+00:00

Details

rank: 87
total: 90
score: 0.1729
delta_2h: -0.1428
extension_atr: -1.6
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1164
confidence: 0.966

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	22:15	0.09538200	+0.002%
2	23:15	0.09465200	-0.763%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09538	0.1016	0.093	0.38	0.09714

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09538
Stop Loss: 0.1016
Take Profit: 0.093

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.1016 - 0.09538 = 0.00622
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09538 - 0.093 = 0.00238
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00238 / 0.00622 = 0.3826

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
123.1387	100	1291.0056	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00622

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00622 = 1286.17

Taille de position USD = 1286.17 x 0.09538 = 122.67

Donc, tu peux acheter 1286.17 avec un stoploss a 0.1016

Avec un position size USD de 122.67$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1286.17 x 0.00622 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1286.17 x 0.00238 = 3.06

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.06$

Résumé

Taille de position 1286.17
Taille de position USD 122.67
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.06
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3826

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.07 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
6.52 %	8.03 $

PNL	PNL %
-7.06 $	-5.73

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-6.4479 %	98.87 %	3

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09538	0.1016	0.093	0.38	0.09714

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09538
Stop Loss: 0.1016
Take Profit: 0.093

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.1016 - 0.09538 = 0.00622
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09538 - 0.093 = 0.00238
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00238 / 0.00622 = 0.3826

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -6.521% (0.0062)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.601%	0.3R	-0.581%	0.1R	2.8×	12
2h	+1.601%	0.3R	-2.197%	0.3R	0.7×	24
4h	+1.601%	0.3R	-2.659%	0.4R	0.6×	48
6h ★	+1.601%	0.3R	-6.448%	1.0R	0.3×	72
8h	+1.601%	0.3R	-7.486%	1.2R	0.2×	96
12h	+1.601%	0.3R	-7.675%	1.2R	0.2×	144

computed 1 day ago

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