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Short Trade on XPL

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28 Sep 2026 at 23:15:07 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_score)

With 1078.28 XPL at 0.0946$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1021 (7.87 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 28 Sep 2026 23:15 → 02:15 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.09465$

Qty 1078.2848 XPL

Size 102.0618$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 102.06$

SL 0.1021 (-7.87%)

SL $ 8.03$

RR

Status loss PnL -2.60% / -2.66$ MAE -3.45% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 29 Sep 02:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 163754)
#88 / 90 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 23:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0467

Quality Score
0.324
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
98 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
42.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 23:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#88 / 90 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-5 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#88 / 90 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-5 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 2.87×ATR
4h clear 1.04×ATR
1d clear 0.72×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (+1)

24/09 15:01

Score : -1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

28/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/09 22:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4325
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical bear transition 0.55 +1
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 5.5%
Impulse : -0.00
Participation : alt_capitulation
Leadership : btc
% Positive (universe)
15m 58.9%
1h 4.1%
4h 2.7%
24h 17.8%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 61.6% +0.03%
4h 5.5% -2.59%
24h 17.8% -5.65%
Dispersion : 0.210
Universe : 73 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 28/09 23:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5036
Score SMA
0.6229
Rank
#72 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1932
Rank Norm SMA
0.4792
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5956 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -7.45% · r3d: -14.33% · ema21_slope: 1.1285% · dist_ema21: 2.343%
Force Relative 25% 0.3596 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -6.29% · rs_3d: -13.61% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume 20% 0.6607 rvol_20: 1.57× · zscore_50: 1.343 · trend: 134.12%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6859 ADX: 23.9 (weak) · Chop: 39.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 12.100% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.3244
Score SMA
0.5349
Rank
#88 / 90
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0467
Rank Norm SMA
0.3932
Calculé le
28/09/2026 23:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.1614 r1h: -1.336% · r4h: -2.979% · r1d: -10.06% · r3d: -16.70% · ema21_slope: -0.3238% · dist_ema21: -4.978%
Force Relative 25% 0.1582 rs_1h: -1.206% · rs_4h: -2.280% · rs_1d: -9.52% · rs_3d: -15.44% · beta_24h: 3.810
Volume 20% 0.3374 rvol_20: 1.15× · zscore_50: -0.067 · trend: -22.07%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6242 ADX: 29.6 (trend) · Chop: 53.4 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.751% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3444
Score SMA
0.5430
Rank
#86 / 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0455
Rank Norm SMA
0.3399
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4374 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.158% · r1d: -7.45% · r3d: -14.33% · ema21_slope: -0.3026% · dist_ema21: -6.109%
Force Relative 25% 0.3333 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.034% · rs_1d: -6.29% · rs_3d: -13.61% · beta_24h: 1.002
Volume 20% 0.1736 rvol_20: 0.23× · zscore_50: -1.047 · trend: -17.44%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6026 ADX: 22.4 (weak) · Chop: 48.6 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0478 ATR%: 5.857% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -7.871% (0.0075)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -2.985% 0.4R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -3.079% 0.4R 0.0× 24
3h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -3.451% 0.4R 0.0× 36
4h +0.000% 0.0R -6.772% 0.9R 0.0× 48
8h +0.000% 0.0R -8.315% 1.1R 0.0× 96
12h +0.000% 0.0R -8.505% 1.1R 0.0× 144

computed 1 day ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up range range moderate grind expansion_after_compression bull_high
56%
noisy_chop 40% early — near -0.4ATR 0.54 bull_high +12.96% -0.56 27/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bull_high
48%
noisy_chop 43% mid — — 0.48 bull_high +1.77% -0.80 28/09 16:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate explosive compression bear_high
56%
noisy_chop 44% late — — 0.41 bear_medium -1.13% -0.74 28/09 22:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind normal bear_high_confirmed
58%
noisy_chop 41% late — — 0.67 range_low -0.66% -0.22 28/09 22:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
167080 		↑ up bull_high
56%
early 3b 0.2ATR noisy_chop 40% 0.695

—

near -0.4ATR

1.57 below_value -5.08 ATR — #92664 27/09 20:00
upd 28/09 20:30
4h
167005 		↔ neutral bull_high
48%
mid 15b -1.2ATR noisy_chop 43% 0.561

—

—

0.23 below_value -5.08 ATR — #92664 28/09 16:00
upd 28/09 20:27
1h anchor
168345 		↓ down bear_high
56%
late 8b -1.8ATR noisy_chop 44% 0.410

—

—

1.15 below_value -6.57 ATR — #93297 28/09 22:00
upd 28/09 23:12
15m
168257 		↓ down bear_high_confirmed
58%
late 9b -1.9ATR noisy_chop 41% 0.514

—

—

0.63 below_value -6.01 ATR — #93116 28/09 22:45
upd 28/09 23:04
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 3b — 2.302×ATR p0 +0.179×ATR p10
4h ↓ down mid 15b — 4.196×ATR p63 -1.244×ATR p74
1h ↓ down late 8b — 2.93×ATR p53 -1.826×ATR p85
15m ↓ down late 9b — 4.128×ATR p93 -1.874×ATR p92

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.10207119
  2. atr: 0.00247306
  3. expires_at: 2026-09-29T06:15:07+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 88
  2. total: 90
  3. score: 0.15
  4. confidence: 0.978

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09465 0.1021 0.09648
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09465
  • Stop Loss: 0.1021
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1021 - 0.09465 = 0.00745

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09465 - = 0.09465

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.09465 / 0.00745 = 12.7047

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
102.0618 100 1078.2848 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00745

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00745 = 1073.83

Taille de position USD = 1073.83 x 0.09465 = 101.64

Donc, tu peux acheter 1073.83 avec un stoploss a 0.1021

Avec un position size USD de 101.64$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1073.83 x 0.00745 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1073.83 x 0.09465 = 101.64

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 101.64$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1073.83
  • Taille de position USD 101.64
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 101.64
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 12.7047

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 102.06 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
7.87 % 8.03 $
PNL PNL %
-2.66 $ -2.60
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.4506 % 43.84 % 0
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09465 0.1021 0.09648
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09465
  • Stop Loss: 0.1021
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1021 - 0.09465 = 0.00745

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09465 - = 0.09465

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.09465 / 0.00745 = 12.7047

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -7.871% (0.0075)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -2.985% 0.4R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -3.079% 0.4R 0.0× 24
3h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -3.451% 0.4R 0.0× 36
4h +0.000% 0.0R -6.772% 0.9R 0.0× 48
8h +0.000% 0.0R -8.315% 1.1R 0.0× 96
12h +0.000% 0.0R -8.505% 1.1R 0.0× 144

computed 1 day ago

Commentaires

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