Short Trade on NIL

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28 Sep 2026 at 23:15:13 hyperliquid

Short Trade on NIL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1140.93 NIL at 0.0812$ per unit. Take profit: 0.0792 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08825 (8.64 %)

NIL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 28 Sep 2026 23:15 → 05:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.08123$

Qty 1140.9306 NIL

Size 92.6824$ (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.0792 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2.32$

SL 0.08825 (-8.64%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 0.29

Status loss PnL -0.78% / -0.72$ MAE -2.54% MFE +1.51% 0.2R expires 29 Sep 05:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 163751)

#90 / 90 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 28/09/2026 23:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0297

Quality Score

0.280

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

3.0M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
28/09 23:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#90 / 90 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-1

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-5 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

8.64 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#90 / 90 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-5 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

8.64 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.74×ATR
4h	near	-0.77×ATR
1d	clear	2.80×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (+1) 24/09 15:01 Score : -1

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (+1)

24/09 15:01

Score : -1

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 28/09 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 28/09 22:00 Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

28/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

28/09 22:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4325

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	bear	transition	0.55	+1
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -1

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 5.5%

Impulse : -0.00

Participation : alt_capitulation

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	58.9%
1h	4.1%
4h	2.7%
24h	17.8%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	61.6%	+0.03%
4h	5.5%	-2.59%
24h	17.8%	-5.65%

Dispersion : 0.210

Universe : 73 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 28/09 23:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5750

Score SMA

0.6900

Rank

#49 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4545

Rank Norm SMA

0.7101

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7143	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -11.25% · r3d: -24.58% · ema21_slope: 6.8745% · dist_ema21: 17.106%
Force Relative	25%	0.5000	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -10.09% · rs_3d: -23.85% · beta_24h: 0.671
Volume	20%	0.5018	rvol_20: 0.96× · zscore_50: 0.420 · trend: 129.64%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.9021	ADX: 48.2 (trend) · Chop: 4.7 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 17.707% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 28/09/2026 23:00

Score brut

0.2802

Score SMA

0.5089

Rank

#90 / 90

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0297

Rank Norm SMA

0.3648

Calculé le

28/09/2026 23:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1139	r1h: -3.628% · r4h: -6.692% · r1d: -7.32% · r3d: -30.08% · ema21_slope: -0.2813% · dist_ema21: -6.873%
Force Relative	25%	0.0403	rs_1h: -3.497% · rs_4h: -5.993% · rs_1d: -6.79% · rs_3d: -28.82% · beta_24h: 1.669
Volume	20%	0.3738	rvol_20: 1.46× · zscore_50: -0.128 · trend: -28.72%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6450	ADX: 39.2 (trend) · Chop: 60.6 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.8057	ATR%: 3.583% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3384

Score SMA

0.5828

Rank

#88 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0398

Rank Norm SMA

0.5132

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4337	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.470% · r1d: -11.25% · r3d: -24.58% · ema21_slope: -0.8264% · dist_ema21: -9.698%
Force Relative	25%	0.3822	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.346% · rs_1d: -10.09% · rs_3d: -23.85% · beta_24h: 7.743
Volume	20%	0.1415	rvol_20: 0.16× · zscore_50: -0.878 · trend: -64.13%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5629	ADX: 25.0 (trend) · Chop: 56.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 9.673% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -8.642% (0.0070)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.514%	0.2R	-1.320%	0.2R	1.2×	12
2h	+1.514%	0.2R	-1.325%	0.2R	1.1×	24
4h	+1.514%	0.2R	-2.537%	0.3R	0.6×	48
6h ★	+1.514%	0.2R	-2.537%	0.3R	0.6×	72
8h	+1.514%	0.2R	-2.537%	0.3R	0.6×	96
12h	+4.356%	0.5R	-4.979%	0.6R	0.9×	144

computed 1 day ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.22

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bull_high	64%	noisy_chop 46%	early	—	—	0.31	bull_high	+12.96%	+1.00	27/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	strong	grind	compression	bull_high	50%	noisy_chop 50%	mid	near -0.8ATR	—	0.12	bull_high	+1.77%	-1.00	28/09 16:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	49%	noisy_chop 40%	late	—	—	0.09	bear_medium	-1.13%	-0.69	28/09 22:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	balanced	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	48%	noisy_chop 43%	late	near -1.9ATR	—	0.28	range_low	-0.66%	-0.47	28/09 22:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 167062	↑ up	bull_high	64%	early 4b 0.7ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.824	— —	0.96	below_value	-9.44 ATR	—	#92660	27/09 20:00 upd 28/09 20:29
4h 166989	↔ neutral	bull_high	50%	mid 20b -1.3ATR	noisy_chop 50%	0.625	near -0.8ATR —	0.16	below_value	-9.44 ATR	—	#92660	28/09 16:00 upd 28/09 20:26
1h anchor 168341	↓ down	bear_high	49%	late 6b -2.3ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.511	— —	1.46	below_value	-11.21 ATR	—	#93293	28/09 22:00 upd 28/09 23:12
15m 168254	↓ down	bear_high_confirmed	48%	late 13b -2.9ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.581	near -1.9ATR —	1.31	below_value	-10.54 ATR	—	#93112	28/09 22:45 upd 28/09 23:04
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	4b	—	3.947×ATR	p42	+0.673×ATR	p49
4h	↓ down	mid	20b	—	6.113×ATR	p78	-1.275×ATR	p64
1h	↓ down	late	6b	—	2.652×ATR	p53	-2.307×ATR	p80
15m	↓ down	late	13b	—	5.516×ATR	p93	-2.929×ATR	p93

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.08824582
tp_price: 0.07920315
atr: 0.00280473
expires_at: 2026-09-29T09:15:13+00:00

Details

rank: 89
total: 90
score: 0.1169
delta_2h: -0.0982
extension_atr: -2.01
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0297
confidence: 0.989

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (3)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	23:15	0.08123400	+0.005%
2	00:15	0.08149800	+0.33%
3	01:15	0.08108600	-0.177%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.08123	0.08825	0.0792	0.29	0.08612

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.08123
Stop Loss: 0.08825
Take Profit: 0.0792

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.08825 - 0.08123 = 0.00702
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.08123 - 0.0792 = 0.00203
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00203 / 0.00702 = 0.2892

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
92.6824	92.6824	1140.9306	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00702

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00702 = 1139.6

Taille de position USD = 1139.6 x 0.08123 = 92.57

Donc, tu peux acheter 1139.6 avec un stoploss a 0.08825

Avec un position size USD de 92.57$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1139.6 x 0.00702 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1139.6 x 0.00203 = 2.31

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.31$

Résumé

Taille de position 1139.6
Taille de position USD 92.57
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 2.31
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.2892

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	2.32 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
8.64 %	8.01 $

PNL	PNL %
-0.72 $	-0.78

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.5372 %	29.36 %	12

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.08123	0.08825	0.0792	0.29	0.08612

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.08123
Stop Loss: 0.08825
Take Profit: 0.0792

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.08825 - 0.08123 = 0.00702
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.08123 - 0.0792 = 0.00203
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00203 / 0.00702 = 0.2892

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -8.642% (0.0070)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.514%	0.2R	-1.320%	0.2R	1.2×	12
2h	+1.514%	0.2R	-1.325%	0.2R	1.1×	24
4h	+1.514%	0.2R	-2.537%	0.3R	0.6×	48
6h ★	+1.514%	0.2R	-2.537%	0.3R	0.6×	72
8h	+1.514%	0.2R	-2.537%	0.3R	0.6×	96
12h	+4.356%	0.5R	-4.979%	0.6R	0.9×	144

computed 1 day ago

Commentaires

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