Long Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 12.33 AVAX at 11.222$ per unit. Take profit: 12.8443 (14.46 %) & Stop Loss: 10.5731 (5.78 %)
29 Sep 2026 at 11:42:42
hyperliquid
AVAX
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Sep 2026 11:42
→ 23:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 11.222$
Qty 12.3278 AVAX
Size 138.3428$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 12.8443 (+14.46%)
TP $ 20$
SL 10.5731 (-5.78%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.53%
/ +0.74$
MAE -1.64%
MFE +3.05%
0.5R
expires
29 Sep 23:42
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 164981)
#14 / 84
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 11:00
score du 29/09/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.9342
Quality Score
0.705
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
30.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 11:30
29/09 11:30
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#14 / 84
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#14 / 84
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 1.04×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high_confirmed (+2) 29/09 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 29/09 10:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4375
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic | bull | expansion | 0.90 | +2 |
| Operational | range | range | 0.25 | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | 0.25 | 0 |
| Micro | range | range | 0.25 |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
44.8%
Impulse :
+0.01
Participation :
mixed_dispersion
Leadership :
mixed
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 35.9% |
| 1h | 3.1% |
| 4h | 29.7% |
| 24h | 76.6% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 32.8% | -0.45% |
| 4h | 43.8% | -1.12% |
| 24h | 75.0% | +2.36% |
Dispersion :
0.237
Universe :
64
(≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
29/09 11:31
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5758
Score SMA
0.6295
Rank
#47
/ 89
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4773
Rank Norm SMA
0.5488
Calculé le
28/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7268 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.79% · r3d: -0.47% · ema21_slope: 2.6407% · dist_ema21: 11.714% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5943 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.63% · rs_3d: 0.26% · beta_24h: 0.944 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3807 | rvol_20: 0.85× · zscore_50: 0.314 · trend: 28.35% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8872 | ADX: 46.5 (trend) · Chop: 20.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 6.586% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/09/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.7049
Score SMA
0.5341
Rank
#14
/ 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.9342
Rank Norm SMA
0.4168
Calculé le
29/09/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7244 | r1h: -1.074% · r4h: -0.492% · r1d: 12.62% · r3d: 4.33% · ema21_slope: 0.4736% · dist_ema21: 3.595% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6382 | rs_1h: -0.521% · rs_4h: -0.181% · rs_1d: 11.75% · rs_3d: 4.65% · beta_24h: 2.836 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5430 | rvol_20: 1.25× · zscore_50: 0.825 · trend: 76.18% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7965 | ADX: 35.6 (trend) · Chop: 24.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.202% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/09/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.7992
Score SMA
0.5673
Rank
#6
/ 86
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.9412
Rank Norm SMA
0.4381
Calculé le
29/09/2026 08:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.8554 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 3.367% · r1d: 12.89% · r3d: 8.13% · ema21_slope: 0.0775% · dist_ema21: 9.709% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.8213 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 2.919% · rs_1d: 11.39% · rs_3d: 7.93% · beta_24h: 3.802 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7952 | rvol_20: 2.71× · zscore_50: 1.418 · trend: 60.50% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7082 | ADX: 27.1 (trend) · Chop: 40.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7199 | ATR%: 3.840% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -5.782%
(0.6489)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.945% | 0.2R | -1.078% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.945% | 0.2R | -1.479% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.559% | 0.3R | -1.640% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.048% | 0.5R | -1.640% | 0.3R | 1.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.048% | 0.5R | -1.640% | 0.3R | 1.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.048% | 0.5R | -3.725% | 0.6R | 0.8× | 288 |
computed 8 hours ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.47
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
63%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | 0.72 | bull_high | +12.96% | +0.98 | 27/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
64%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.52 | bull_high | +2.69% | +0.78 | 29/09 04:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
72%
|
noisy_chop 49% | mid | — | — | 0.42 | range_medium | -0.18% | +0.74 | 29/09 10:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.71 | bear_low_confirmed | -0.90% | -0.30 | 29/09 11:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Regime | Tradability | Move | PAQ | Momentum | Near S/D | RVOL | Vol zone | POC dist | LVN | VP ref | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
166807 |
↑ up | bull_high_confirmed |
63%
|
mid 7b 1.3ATR | noisy_chop 44% | 0.844 |
— — |
0.85 | value | +1.33 ATR | — | #92598 |
27/09 20:00
upd 28/09 20:17
|
|
4h
172295 |
↑ up | bull_high_confirmed |
64%
|
late 5b 2.3ATR | noisy_chop 39% | 0.489 |
— — |
2.71 | above_value | +5.87 ATR | — | #94976 |
29/09 04:00
upd 29/09 08:13
|
|
1h
anchor
173595 |
↑ up | bull_high_confirmed |
72%
|
mid 2b 1.4ATR | noisy_chop 49% | 0.683 |
— — |
1.25 | above_value | +4.56 ATR | — | #95570 |
29/09 10:00
upd 29/09 11:09
|
|
15m
173768 |
↔ neutral | bull_high |
58%
|
late 13b -2.6ATR | noisy_chop 43% | 0.628 |
— — |
2.44 | above_value | +4.56 ATR | — | #95570 |
29/09 11:15
upd 29/09 11:30
|
|
5m
|
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade | ||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 1.725×ATR | p0 | +1.258×ATR | p70 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 3.751×ATR | p58 | +2.3×ATR | p87 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 1.976×ATR | p32 | +1.414×ATR | p62 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 13b | — | 5.985×ATR | p94 | -2.608×ATR | p90 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.7702
- reason: up_bo width=2.30×ATR dur=40b phase=extending
- stop_price: 10.57306141
- tp_price: 12.84434647
- atr:
- score: 0.770223455763
- expires_at: 2026-09-30T03:42:34.663694
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.770223455763
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0165
- obi_top10 : 0.0165
- micro_price : 11.25094215
- spread_pct : 0.017778
- mid_price : 11.251
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0116
- obi_top5_std : 0.0047
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6948
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
10.9
- balance_zone_bottom:
10.2985
- balance_zone_mid:
10.59925
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790553600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790694000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2968
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
40
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7702
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790661600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
10.9
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.725
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
9
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.2295
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.26188587 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
40
inside_close_ratio
0.725
bars_since_breakout
9
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2295
Signaux confirmants (20)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:42 | 11.22200000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:51 | 11.22200000 | 0% |
| 3 | 12:00 | 11.22200000 | 0% |
| 4 | 12:13 | 11.17400000 | -0.428% |
| 5 | 12:24 | 11.17400000 | -0.428% |
| 6 | 12:33 | 11.17400000 | -0.428% |
| 7 | 12:43 | 11.11000000 | -0.998% |
| 8 | 12:53 | 11.11000000 | -0.998% |
| 9 | 13:04 | 11.11000000 | -0.998% |
| 10 | 13:14 | 11.14300000 | -0.704% |
| 11 | 13:24 | 11.14300000 | -0.704% |
| 12 | 13:34 | 11.12200000 | -0.891% |
| 13 | 13:44 | 11.12200000 | -0.891% |
| 14 | 13:54 | 11.12200000 | -0.891% |
| 15 | 14:06 | 11.16000000 | -0.552% |
| 16 | 14:18 | 11.16000000 | -0.552% |
| 17 | 14:28 | 11.16000000 | -0.552% |
| 18 | 14:38 | 11.23600000 | +0.125% |
| 19 | 14:47 | 11.23600000 | +0.125% |
| 20 | 14:56 | 11.23600000 | +0.125% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6948ms
Confidence avant OB :
77%
→
77%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.017
avg 0.012
± 0.005
OBI Top 10
0.017
Microstructure
Mid Price
11.2510
Micro Price
11.2509
Spread
0.0178%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.222 | 10.5731 | 12.8443 | 2.5 | 11.055 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.222
- Stop Loss: 10.5731
- Take Profit: 12.8443
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 10.5731 - 11.222 = -0.6489
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.222 - 12.8443 = -1.6223
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -1.6223 / -0.6489 = 2.5001
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138.3428 | 100 | 12.3278 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.6489
Taille de position = 8 / -0.6489 = -12.33
Taille de position USD = -12.33 x 11.222 = -138.37
Donc, tu peux acheter -12.33 avec un stoploss a 10.5731
Avec un position size USD de -138.37$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -12.33 x -0.6489 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -12.33 x -1.6223 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position -12.33
- Taille de position USD -138.37
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5001
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 14.46 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.78 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.74 $ | 0.53 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6396 % | 28.36 % | 14 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.222 | 10.5731 | 12.8443 | 2.5 | 11.055 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.222
- Stop Loss: 10.5731
- Take Profit: 12.8443
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 10.5731 - 11.222 = -0.6489
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.222 - 12.8443 = -1.6223
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -1.6223 / -0.6489 = 2.5001
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -5.782%
(0.6489)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.945% | 0.2R | -1.078% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.945% | 0.2R | -1.479% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.559% | 0.3R | -1.640% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.048% | 0.5R | -1.640% | 0.3R | 1.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.048% | 0.5R | -1.640% | 0.3R | 1.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.048% | 0.5R | -3.725% | 0.6R | 0.8× | 288 |
computed 8 hours ago
Commentaires
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