Short Trade on AR

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29 Sep 2026 at 15:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on AR (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 42.12 AR at 4.245$ per unit. Take profit: 4.1386 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.4346 (4.47 %)

AR SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 15:15 → 21:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 4.2447$

Qty 42.1238 AR

Size 178.8027$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 4.1386 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.47$

SL 4.4346 (-4.47%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.56

Status loss PnL -1.64% / -2.93$ MAE -1.80% MFE +1.51% 0.3R expires 29 Sep 21:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 165437)

#80 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 15:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2080

Quality Score

0.400

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

94 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

1.3M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 15:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#80 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

94 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.47 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#80 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

94 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.47 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.50×ATR
4h	near	-2.11×ATR
1d	clear	3.79×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	early	OK
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 29/09 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/09 14:00 Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

29/09 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/09 14:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4389

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 21.2%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : btc_led_risk_on

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	38.1%
1h	100.0%
4h	11.1%
24h	41.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	44.4%	-0.01%
4h	15.9%	-1.92%
24h	46.0%	-1.06%

Dispersion : 0.255

Universe : 63 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 29/09 15:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5754

Score SMA

0.6624

Rank

#48 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4659

Rank Norm SMA

0.6610

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6503	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -8.31% · r3d: -7.36% · ema21_slope: 4.4203% · dist_ema21: 12.933%
Force Relative	25%	0.4594	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -7.15% · rs_3d: -6.64% · beta_24h: 2.346
Volume	20%	0.6363	rvol_20: 1.54× · zscore_50: 1.258 · trend: 89.35%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.9211	ADX: 50.5 (trend) · Chop: 24.4 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 11.057% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 15:00

Score brut

0.4000

Score SMA

0.5233

Rank

#80 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2080

Rank Norm SMA

0.3924

Calculé le

29/09/2026 15:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3767	r1h: 1.571% · r4h: -2.357% · r1d: -0.91% · r3d: -10.66% · ema21_slope: -0.0046% · dist_ema21: -0.854%
Force Relative	25%	0.3997	rs_1h: 0.882% · rs_4h: -2.233% · rs_1d: -0.41% · rs_3d: -10.25% · beta_24h: 2.545
Volume	20%	0.3376	rvol_20: 1.29× · zscore_50: -0.208 · trend: -31.75%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5004	ADX: 22.9 (weak) · Chop: 61.8 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.885% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.3912

Score SMA

0.5078

Rank

#78 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0717

Rank Norm SMA

0.2644

Calculé le

29/09/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3782	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -3.130% · r1d: -1.45% · r3d: -13.44% · ema21_slope: -0.4224% · dist_ema21: -5.024%
Force Relative	25%	0.3589	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.631% · rs_1d: -1.07% · rs_3d: -12.15% · beta_24h: 3.102
Volume	20%	0.2744	rvol_20: 0.95× · zscore_50: -0.135 · trend: -41.25%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6325	ADX: 18.4 (weak) · Chop: 40.8 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.3822	ATR%: 4.853% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.474% (0.1899)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.510%	0.3R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+1.510%	0.3R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+1.510%	0.3R	-0.563%	0.1R	2.7×	48
6h ★	+1.510%	0.3R	-1.798%	0.4R	0.8×	72
8h	+1.510%	0.3R	-2.233%	0.5R	0.7×	96
12h	+1.583%	0.4R	-2.233%	0.5R	0.7×	144

computed 2 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.41

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high_confirmed	60%	noisy_chop 46%	early	—	—	0.55	bull_high	+12.96%	+1.00	27/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	52%	noisy_chop 40%	mid	near -2.1ATR	—	0.33	bull_high	+1.12%	-0.64	29/09 08:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	compression	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 40%	early	near -0.5ATR	—	0.14	range_medium	-0.24%	-0.18	29/09 14:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	normal	bear_high	64%	noisy_chop 45%	early	near 0.5ATR	—	0.57	range_low	+0.04%	-0.14	29/09 14:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 166980	↑ up	bull_high_confirmed	60%	early 13b 0.8ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.595	— —	1.54	value	-2.67 ATR	—	#92640	27/09 20:00 upd 28/09 20:26
4h 174089	↔ neutral	bull_high	52%	mid 11b -1.0ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.637	near -2.1ATR —	0.95	below_value	-4.37 ATR	—	#95777	29/09 08:00 upd 29/09 12:16
1h anchor 175332	↓ down	bear_high	54%	early 9b -0.5ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.431	near -0.5ATR —	1.29	below_value	-4.21 ATR	—	#96366	29/09 14:00 upd 29/09 15:11
15m 175259	↓ down	bear_high	64%	early 4b -0.2ATR	noisy_chop 45%	0.425	near 0.5ATR —	1.95	below_value	-5.06 ATR	—	#96197	29/09 14:45 upd 29/09 15:02
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	13b	—	3.951×ATR	p29	+0.785×ATR	p48
4h	↓ down	mid	11b	—	4.558×ATR	p66	-1.048×ATR	p50
1h	↓ down	early	9b	—	1.832×ATR	p19	-0.518×ATR	p33
15m	↑ up	early	4b	—	2.168×ATR	p36	-0.155×ATR	p7

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 4.43461661
tp_price: 4.1385825
atr: 0.07596664
expires_at: 2026-09-30T01:15:06+00:00

Details

rank: 79
total: 84
score: 0.3413
delta_2h: -0.0043
extension_atr: -0.31
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.193
confidence: 0.94

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
4.2447	4.4346	4.1386	0.56	4.731

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 4.2447
Stop Loss: 4.4346
Take Profit: 4.1386

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.4346 - 4.2447 = 0.1899
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 4.2447 - 4.1386 = 0.1061
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1061 / 0.1899 = 0.5587

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
178.8027	100	42.1238	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.1899

Taille de position = 8 / 0.1899 = 42.13

Taille de position USD = 42.13 x 4.2447 = 178.83

Donc, tu peux acheter 42.13 avec un stoploss a 4.4346

Avec un position size USD de 178.83$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 42.13 x 0.1899 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 42.13 x 0.1061 = 4.47

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.47$

Résumé

Taille de position 42.13
Taille de position USD 178.83
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 4.47
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5587

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	4.47 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.47 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-2.93 $	-1.64

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.7975 %	40.18 %	7

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
4.2447	4.4346	4.1386	0.56	4.731

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 4.2447
Stop Loss: 4.4346
Take Profit: 4.1386

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.4346 - 4.2447 = 0.1899
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 4.2447 - 4.1386 = 0.1061
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1061 / 0.1899 = 0.5587

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.474% (0.1899)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.510%	0.3R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+1.510%	0.3R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+1.510%	0.3R	-0.563%	0.1R	2.7×	48
6h ★	+1.510%	0.3R	-1.798%	0.4R	0.8×	72
8h	+1.510%	0.3R	-2.233%	0.5R	0.7×	96
12h	+1.583%	0.4R	-2.233%	0.5R	0.7×	144

computed 2 days ago

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