Short Trade on MORPHO

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29 Sep 2026 at 16:14:01 hyperliquid

Short Trade on MORPHO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 67.51 MORPHO at 2.449$ per unit. Take profit: 2.1526 (12.1 %) & Stop Loss: 2.5674 (4.84 %)

MORPHO SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 16:14 → 00:25 · 8 hours

Position

Entry 2.4489$

Qty 67.5098 MORPHO

Size 165.3247$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 2.1526 (+12.1%)

TP $ 20$

SL 2.5674 (-4.84%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -4.84% / -8$ MAE -6.14% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 30 Sep 04:13

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 165537)

#77 / 82 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 16:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2783

Quality Score

0.426

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

64 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

3.3M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 16:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#77 / 82 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

64 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.84 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#77 / 82 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

64 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.84 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	3.62×ATR
4h	clear	3.46×ATR
1d	clear	2.15×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	mid	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/09 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/09 14:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/09 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/09 14:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4393

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 59.3%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	38.1%
1h	63.5%
4h	71.4%
24h	69.8%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	46.0%	-0.04%
4h	54.0%	+0.80%
24h	69.8%	+1.09%

Dispersion : 0.174

Universe : 63 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 29/09 16:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5039

Score SMA

0.5683

Rank

#71 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2045

Rank Norm SMA

0.3150

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5985	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -6.93% · r3d: -6.86% · ema21_slope: 0.9697% · dist_ema21: 0.223%
Force Relative	25%	0.3657	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.77% · rs_3d: -6.14% · beta_24h: 1.065
Volume	20%	0.6096	rvol_20: 1.54× · zscore_50: 1.601 · trend: 52.52%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7402	ADX: 30.1 (trend) · Chop: 39.5 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 8.358% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.4264

Score SMA

0.5206

Rank

#77 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2783

Rank Norm SMA

0.3801

Calculé le

29/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3416	r1h: -1.545% · r4h: -0.907% · r1d: -2.23% · r3d: -9.78% · ema21_slope: -0.0007% · dist_ema21: -2.374%
Force Relative	25%	0.2981	rs_1h: -1.478% · rs_4h: -1.529% · rs_1d: -2.49% · rs_3d: -9.29% · beta_24h: 2.459
Volume	20%	0.1963	rvol_20: 0.28× · zscore_50: -0.743 · trend: -15.69%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5683	ADX: 18.9 (weak) · Chop: 49.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.970% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.4144

Score SMA

0.5398

Rank

#76 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0796

Rank Norm SMA

0.3846

Calculé le

29/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2754	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.907% · r1d: -2.23% · r3d: -9.78% · ema21_slope: -0.4105% · dist_ema21: -5.265%
Force Relative	25%	0.3409	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.529% · rs_1d: -2.49% · rs_3d: -9.29% · beta_24h: 2.984
Volume	20%	0.2709	rvol_20: 0.79× · zscore_50: -0.432 · trend: -9.51%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5924	ADX: 25.1 (trend) · Chop: 52.6 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.6432	ATR%: 4.071% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.839% (0.1185)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-0.772%	0.2R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.217%	0.3R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.038%	0.4R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.000%	0.0R	-4.418%	0.9R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.000%	0.0R	-6.137%	1.3R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.000%	0.0R	-7.808%	1.6R	0.0×	288

computed 2 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	weak	grind	expansion	bull_high	55%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	0.50	bull_high	+12.96%	+0.07	27/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 43%	mid	—	—	0.40	bull_high	+1.12%	-0.70	29/09 08:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	balanced	expansion_after_compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 39%	mid	—	—	0.36	range_medium	-0.24%	-0.10	29/09 14:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	explosive	compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 45%	mid	near -1.5ATR	—	0.59	range_low	-0.03%	-0.42	29/09 15:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 167050	↑ up	bull_high	55%	early 12b 0.0ATR	noisy_chop 37%	0.547	— —	1.54	below_value	-4.45 ATR	—	#92657	27/09 20:00 upd 28/09 20:28
4h 174140	↓ down	bear_high	55%	mid 3b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.410	— —	1.53	below_value	-5.18 ATR	—	#95794	29/09 08:00 upd 29/09 12:18
1h anchor 175349	↓ down	bear_high	58%	mid 6b -0.6ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.424	— —	1.27	below_value	-4.88 ATR	—	#96383	29/09 14:00 upd 29/09 15:11
15m 175675	↓ down	bear_high	58%	mid 6b -1.9ATR	noisy_chop 45%	0.426	near -1.5ATR —	0.06	below_value	-4.88 ATR	—	#96383	29/09 15:45 upd 29/09 16:03
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	12b	—	2.372×ATR	p5	+0.025×ATR	p2
4h	↑ up	mid	3b	—	0.657×ATR	p0	-1.206×ATR	p68
1h	↓ down	mid	6b	—	2.606×ATR	p59	-0.55×ATR	p25
15m	↓ down	mid	6b	—	2.523×ATR	p40	-1.921×ATR	p72

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.6424
reason: down_bo width=2.57×ATR dur=36b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)|ob:obi_bullish(-0.05)
stop_price: 2.56740134
tp_price: 2.15264664
atr:
score: 0.7923713187356
expires_at: 2026-09-30T08:13:53.628915
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.7923713187356

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.4714
obi_top10 : 0.3735
micro_price : 2.45265507
spread_pct : 0.138798
mid_price : 2.4513
bid_wall_price : 2.44
bid_wall_size : 54281
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 2.46
ask_wall_size : 12354.6
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.4717
obi_top5_std : 0.0016
pressure_side : bid
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7050
aggregation_tick : 0.01
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
2.6243
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
2.5009
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
2.5626
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790586000
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790712000
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.5701
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
36
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.7924
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790694000
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
2.5009
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.6389
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
5
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
1.083
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
2
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
2
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
7
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.04801343

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.6389

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

1.083

Signaux confirmants (6)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	16:14	2.44890000	0%
2	16:24	2.44890000	0%
3	16:34	2.44890000	0%
4	16:43	2.46300000	+0.576%
5	16:53	2.46300000	+0.576%
6	17:02	2.46300000	+0.576%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7050ms Confidence avant OB : 79% → 64%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.471

avg 0.472 ± 0.002

OBI Top 10 0.374

Microstructure

Mid Price

2.4513

Micro Price

2.4527

Spread

0.1388%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

2.4400

Size

54,281.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

2.4600

Size

12,354.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
2.4489	2.5674	2.1526	2.5	2.7442

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 2.4489
Stop Loss: 2.5674
Take Profit: 2.1526

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 2.5674 - 2.4489 = 0.1185
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 2.4489 - 2.1526 = 0.2963
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2963 / 0.1185 = 2.5004

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
165.3247	100	67.5098	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.1185

Taille de position = 8 / 0.1185 = 67.51

Taille de position USD = 67.51 x 2.4489 = 165.33

Donc, tu peux acheter 67.51 avec un stoploss a 2.5674

Avec un position size USD de 165.33$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 67.51 x 0.1185 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 67.51 x 0.2963 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

Taille de position 67.51
Taille de position USD 165.33
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5004

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
12.1 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.84 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-4.84

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-5.9619 %	123.21 %	0

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
2.4489	2.5674	2.1526	2.5	2.7442

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 2.4489
Stop Loss: 2.5674
Take Profit: 2.1526

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 2.5674 - 2.4489 = 0.1185
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 2.4489 - 2.1526 = 0.2963
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2963 / 0.1185 = 2.5004

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.839% (0.1185)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-0.772%	0.2R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.217%	0.3R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.038%	0.4R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.000%	0.0R	-4.418%	0.9R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.000%	0.0R	-6.137%	1.3R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.000%	0.0R	-7.808%	1.6R	0.0×	288

computed 2 days ago

Commentaires

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