Short Trade on LIT

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30 Sep 2026 at 03:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 21.38 LIT at 3.792$ per unit. Take profit: 3.6974 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.1664 (9.87 %)

LIT SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 03:15 → 04:15 · 59 minutes

Position

Entry 3.7922$

Qty 21.3804 LIT

Size 81.0787$ (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 3.6974 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2.03$

SL 4.1664 (-9.87%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.25

Status win PnL +2.50% / +2.03$ MAE -6.23% MFE +3.18% 0.3R expires 30 Sep 09:15

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 166785)

#81 / 81 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 03:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0548

Quality Score

0.341

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

100 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

150.3M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 03:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#81 / 81 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

100 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

9.87 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#81 / 81 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

100 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

9.87 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	—
4h	near	-0.19×ATR
1d	clear	3.43×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 29/09 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 30/09 02:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

29/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

30/09 02:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4437

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	compression	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 28.7%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : btc_led_risk_on

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	15.5%
1h	3.5%
4h	25.9%
24h	43.1%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	29.3%	-0.13%
4h	34.5%	-0.69%
24h	53.5%	-0.59%

Dispersion : 0.136

Universe : 58 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 03:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4075

Score SMA

0.5207

Rank

#80 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0366

Rank Norm SMA

0.2242

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3850	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -11.51% · r3d: -18.78% · ema21_slope: 0.6205% · dist_ema21: -13.228%
Force Relative	25%	0.1446	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -11.70% · rs_3d: -17.84% · beta_24h: 0.389
Volume	20%	0.6717	rvol_20: 2.00× · zscore_50: 1.844 · trend: 31.45%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8100	ADX: 43.8 (trend) · Chop: 45.0 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.102% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 03:00

Score brut

0.3412

Score SMA

0.4898

Rank

#81 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0548

Rank Norm SMA

0.3185

Calculé le

30/09/2026 03:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1697	r1h: 1.098% · r4h: 0.667% · r1d: -13.31% · r3d: -20.08% · ema21_slope: -0.6362% · dist_ema21: -7.071%
Force Relative	25%	0.3346	rs_1h: 1.496% · rs_4h: 1.071% · rs_1d: -12.17% · rs_3d: -18.32% · beta_24h: 0.656
Volume	20%	0.3725	rvol_20: 0.76× · zscore_50: 0.141 · trend: 40.66%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8224	ADX: 38.7 (trend) · Chop: 20.1 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.6212	ATR%: 4.136% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 00:00

Score brut

0.3127

Score SMA

0.4314

Rank

#81 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0182

Rank Norm SMA

0.1737

Calculé le

30/09/2026 00:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.0154	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -6.251% · r1d: -15.31% · r3d: -22.25% · ema21_slope: -0.6183% · dist_ema21: -16.947%
Force Relative	25%	0.0035	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -5.833% · rs_1d: -15.60% · rs_3d: -20.94% · beta_24h: 2.305
Volume	20%	0.9615	rvol_20: 3.62× · zscore_50: 2.423 · trend: 191.21%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7662	ADX: 31.9 (trend) · Chop: 31.9 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 6.461% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -9.868% (0.3742)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+3.180%	0.3R	-0.216%	0.0R	14.7×	12
2h	+3.180%	0.3R	-1.722%	0.2R	1.9×	24
4h	+3.180%	0.3R	-4.087%	0.4R	0.8×	48
6h ★	+3.180%	0.3R	-6.234%	0.6R	0.5×	72
8h	+3.180%	0.3R	-7.813%	0.8R	0.4×	96
12h	+3.180%	0.3R	-8.934%	0.9R	0.4×	144

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 1.77

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_high	52%	noisy_chop 35%	mid	—	—	—	bull_high	+12.90%	-0.97	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	40%	noisy_chop 45%	late	near -0.2ATR	—	0.33	bull_high	+1.30%	-0.98	29/09 20:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	45%	noisy_chop 45%	mid	—	—	0.28	bear_medium	-0.86%	-0.87	30/09 02:00
15m	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	near -0.5ATR	0.28	range_low	-0.52%	-0.04	30/09 02:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177678	↑ up	bull_high	52%	mid 5b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 35%	0.588	— —	2.00	below_value	-4.17 ATR	inside	#97306	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:30
4h 179311	↔ neutral	bear_high_confirmed	40%	late 32b -3.3ATR	noisy_chop 45%	0.417	near -0.2ATR —	3.62	below_value	-3.76 ATR	—	#98051	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 00:20
1h anchor 180464	↓ down	bear_high_confirmed	45%	mid 6b -1.4ATR	noisy_chop 45%	0.295	— —	0.76	below_value	-3.44 ATR	—	#98625	30/09 02:00 upd 30/09 03:12
15m 180381	↔ neutral	bear_high	55%	early 6b 0.2ATR	noisy_chop 37%	0.525	— near -0.5ATR	0.54	below_value	-3.77 ATR	—	#98461	30/09 02:45 upd 30/09 03:04
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	5b	—	3.47×ATR	p44	-1.219×ATR	p67
4h	↓ down	late	32b	—	7.67×ATR	p100	-3.268×ATR	p100
1h	↑ up	mid	6b	—	0.854×ATR	p0	-1.431×ATR	p79
15m	↑ up	early	6b	—	1.939×ATR	p19	+0.232×ATR	p15

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 4.16637487
tp_price: 3.697395
atr: 0.14966995
expires_at: 2026-09-30T13:15:06+00:00

Details

rank: 81
total: 81
score: 0.1058
delta_2h: -0.0148
extension_atr: -1.84
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0286
confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.7922	4.1664	3.6974	0.25	3.5863

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.7922
Stop Loss: 4.1664
Take Profit: 3.6974

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.1664 - 3.7922 = 0.3742
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.7922 - 3.6974 = 0.0948
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0948 / 0.3742 = 0.2533

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
81.0787	81.0787	21.3804	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.3742

Taille de position = 8 / 0.3742 = 21.38

Taille de position USD = 21.38 x 3.7922 = 81.08

Donc, tu peux acheter 21.38 avec un stoploss a 4.1664

Avec un position size USD de 81.08$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 21.38 x 0.3742 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 21.38 x 0.0948 = 2.03

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.03$

Résumé

Taille de position 21.38
Taille de position USD 81.08
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 2.03
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.2533

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	2.03 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
9.87 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
2.03 $	2.50

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-0.2162 %	2.19 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.7922	4.1664	3.6974	0.25	3.5863

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.7922
Stop Loss: 4.1664
Take Profit: 3.6974

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.1664 - 3.7922 = 0.3742
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.7922 - 3.6974 = 0.0948
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0948 / 0.3742 = 0.2533

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -9.868% (0.3742)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+3.180%	0.3R	-0.216%	0.0R	14.7×	12
2h	+3.180%	0.3R	-1.722%	0.2R	1.9×	24
4h	+3.180%	0.3R	-4.087%	0.4R	0.8×	48
6h ★	+3.180%	0.3R	-6.234%	0.6R	0.5×	72
8h	+3.180%	0.3R	-7.813%	0.8R	0.4×	96
12h	+3.180%	0.3R	-8.934%	0.9R	0.4×	144

computed 1 week ago

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