Long Trade on FIL

Previous Trade Next Trade

30 Sep 2026 at 06:10:53 hyperliquid

Long Trade on FIL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 284.77 FIL at 1.075$ per unit. Take profit: 1.1455 (6.53 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0472 (2.61 %)

FIL LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 06:10 → 10:30 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 1.0753$

Qty 284.7682 FIL

Size 306.2113$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 1.1455 (+6.53%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 1.0472 (-2.61%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.61% / -8$ MAE -4.71% MFE +1.74% 0.7R expires 30 Sep 18:10

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167065)

#45 / 81 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 06:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4164

Quality Score

0.472

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

89 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

1.4M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 06:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#45 / 81 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

89 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+7 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.61 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#45 / 81 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

89 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+7 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.61 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	3.68×ATR
4h	clear	3.51×ATR
1d	clear	2.40×ATR

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	early	OK
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : +2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : +2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/09 00:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 30/09 04:00 Score : +5 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 00:00

Tactical (1H) : range_high (0)

30/09 04:00

Score : +5 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4449

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	+2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	compression	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 79.6%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : broad_risk_on

Leadership : alts

% Positive (universe)

15m	68.5%
1h	92.6%
4h	87.0%
24h	46.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	29.6%	+0.03%
4h	70.4%	+0.69%
24h	51.9%	-0.38%

Dispersion : 0.114

Universe : 54 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 06:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5445

Score SMA

0.6243

Rank

#53 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3659

Rank Norm SMA

0.5093

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7427	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.48% · r3d: -6.74% · ema21_slope: 1.5950% · dist_ema21: 9.786%
Force Relative	25%	0.5959	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.67% · rs_3d: -5.80% · beta_24h: 1.524
Volume	20%	0.2926	rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: 0.002 · trend: 9.45%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7612	ADX: 31.3 (trend) · Chop: 34.9 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 9.135% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 06:00

Score brut

0.4723

Score SMA

0.5686

Rank

#45 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4164

Rank Norm SMA

0.5775

Calculé le

30/09/2026 06:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5017	r1h: 0.524% · r4h: 0.561% · r1d: 0.07% · r3d: -6.11% · ema21_slope: -0.0312% · dist_ema21: 0.821%
Force Relative	25%	0.4711	rs_1h: -0.158% · rs_4h: 0.260% · rs_1d: 0.81% · rs_3d: -4.54% · beta_24h: 0.856
Volume	20%	0.1514	rvol_20: 0.35× · zscore_50: -0.728 · trend: -54.48%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3285	ADX: 13.8 (weak) · Chop: 73.6 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.649% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 04:00

Score brut

0.4795

Score SMA

0.5850

Rank

#46 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3827

Rank Norm SMA

0.5591

Calculé le

30/09/2026 04:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5417	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.521% · r1d: 0.11% · r3d: -8.03% · ema21_slope: -0.1490% · dist_ema21: -0.756%
Force Relative	25%	0.5091	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.537% · rs_1d: 0.92% · rs_3d: -6.25% · beta_24h: 1.668
Volume	20%	0.1621	rvol_20: 0.59× · zscore_50: -0.780 · trend: -51.30%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5522	ADX: 22.8 (weak) · Chop: 55.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.7443	ATR%: 3.767% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.613% (0.0281)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.149%	0.1R	-1.283%	0.5R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.149%	0.1R	-1.283%	0.5R	0.1×	24
4h	+1.739%	0.7R	-1.813%	0.7R	1.0×	48
8h	+1.739%	0.7R	-3.701%	1.4R	0.5×	96
12h ★	+1.739%	0.7R	-4.706%	1.8R	0.4×	143
24h	+1.739%	0.7R	-6.296%	2.4R	0.3×	288

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.55

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high	59%	noisy_chop 44%	early	—	—	0.61	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.96	28/09 20:00
4h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 39%	early	—	—	0.38	bull_high	+1.26%	-0.49	30/09 00:00
1h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	range_high	39%	noisy_chop 39%	early	—	—	0.37	bear_medium	-0.81%	+0.09	30/09 04:00
15m	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	balanced	expansion	bull_medium	58%	noisy_chop 44%	mid	—	near 0.2ATR	0.62	range_low	+0.23%	+0.08	30/09 05:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177539	↑ up	bull_high	59%	early 6b 0.9ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.610	— —	0.58	above_value	+1.24 ATR	—	#97259	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:23
4h 180846	↑ up	bull_high	57%	early 7b -0.2ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.702	— —	0.59	above_value	+1.50 ATR	—	#98741	30/09 00:00 upd 30/09 04:15
1h anchor 181303	↔ neutral	range_high	39%	early 12b 0.2ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.578	— —	0.53	above_value	+2.00 ATR	—	#98987	30/09 04:00 upd 30/09 05:10
15m 181632	↔ neutral	bull_medium	58%	mid 12b 1.0ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.627	— near 0.2ATR	0.22	above_value	+2.00 ATR	—	#98987	30/09 05:45 upd 30/09 06:02
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	6b	—	1.631×ATR	p0	+0.875×ATR	p59
4h	↑ up	early	7b	—	1.236×ATR	p3	-0.199×ATR	p10
1h	↓ down	early	12b	—	0.98×ATR	p2	+0.246×ATR	p16
15m	↑ up	mid	12b	—	3.53×ATR	p70	+1.039×ATR	p58

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.8945
reason: up_bo width=2.99×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
stop_price: 1.04720698
tp_price: 1.14553254
atr:
score: 0.894468983703
expires_at: 2026-09-30T22:10:45.461849
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.894468983703

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.0158
obi_top10 : 0.0262
micro_price : 1.07212266
spread_pct : 0.009327
mid_price : 1.07215
bid_wall_price : 1.07
bid_wall_size : 841929.82
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 1.08
ask_wall_size : 1003108.52
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : -0.0194
obi_top5_std : 0.0021
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7174
aggregation_tick : 0.01
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
1.07385
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
1.0239
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
1.048875
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790596800
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790762400
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.9946
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
47
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8945
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790758800
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
1.07385
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.7234
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.0869
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
12
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
4
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 0.01668016

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.7234

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.0869

Signaux confirmants (10)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	06:10	1.07530000	0%
2	06:22	1.07530000	0%
3	06:33	1.07530000	0%
4	06:44	1.07570000	+0.037%
5	06:56	1.07570000	+0.037%
6	08:17	1.07000000	-0.493%
7	08:28	1.07000000	-0.493%
8	08:39	1.08420000	+0.828%
9	08:50	1.08420000	+0.828%
10	09:00	1.08420000	+0.828%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7174ms Confidence avant OB : 89% → 89%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.016

avg -0.019 ± 0.002

OBI Top 10 0.026

Microstructure

Mid Price

1.0722

Micro Price

1.0721

Spread

0.0093%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

1.0700

Size

841,929.82

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

1.0800

Size

1,003,108.52

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
1.0753	1.0472	1.1455	2.5	1.0811

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 1.0753
Stop Loss: 1.0472
Take Profit: 1.1455

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 1.0472 - 1.0753 = -0.0281
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 1.0753 - 1.1455 = -0.0702
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0702 / -0.0281 = 2.4982

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
306.2113	100	284.7682	3.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -0.0281

Taille de position = 8 / -0.0281 = -284.7

Taille de position USD = -284.7 x 1.0753 = -306.14

Donc, tu peux acheter -284.7 avec un stoploss a 1.0472

Avec un position size USD de -306.14$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -284.7 x -0.0281 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -284.7 x -0.0702 = 19.99

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$

Résumé

Taille de position -284.7
Taille de position USD -306.14
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 19.99
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4982

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
6.53 %	19.99 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.61 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-2.61

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.9852 %	114.24 %	7

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
1.0753	1.0472	1.1455	2.5	1.0811

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 1.0753
Stop Loss: 1.0472
Take Profit: 1.1455

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 1.0472 - 1.0753 = -0.0281
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 1.0753 - 1.1455 = -0.0702
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0702 / -0.0281 = 2.4982

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.1455
            [entry_price] => 1.0753
            [stop_loss] => 1.04439
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 14:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.613% (0.0281)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.149%	0.1R	-1.283%	0.5R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.149%	0.1R	-1.283%	0.5R	0.1×	24
4h	+1.739%	0.7R	-1.813%	0.7R	1.0×	48
8h	+1.739%	0.7R	-3.701%	1.4R	0.5×	96
12h ★	+1.739%	0.7R	-4.706%	1.8R	0.4×	143
24h	+1.739%	0.7R	-6.296%	2.4R	0.3×	288

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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