Long Trade on PENGU

Previous Trade Next Trade

30 Sep 2026 at 08:43:02 hyperliquid

Long Trade on PENGU (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 15224.76 PENGU at 0.0102$ per unit. Take profit: 0.01154 (12.92 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0097 (5.09 %)

PENGU LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 08:43 → 14:45 · 6 hours

Position

Entry 0.01022$

Qty 15224.7555 PENGU

Size 155.6731$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.01154 (+12.92%)

TP $ 20.1$

SL 0.0097 (-5.09%)

SL $ 7.92$

RR 2.54

Status loss PnL -5.09% / -7.92$ MAE -7.54% MFE +4.17% 0.8R expires 30 Sep 20:42

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167251)

#28 / 81 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 08:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7568

Quality Score

0.529

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

92 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

5.7M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 08:31

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#28 / 81 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

92 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.09 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#28 / 81 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

92 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.09 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

3/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-1.02×ATR
4h	near	0.14×ATR
1d	near	-0.77×ATR

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	early	OK
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↑ up	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : +2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : +2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/09 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 30/09 07:00 Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

30/09 07:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4459

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	+2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 65.5%

Impulse : -0.01

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	60.0%
1h	27.3%
4h	74.6%
24h	34.6%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	29.1%	+0.07%
4h	47.3%	+0.88%
24h	41.8%	-1.08%

Dispersion : 0.147

Universe : 55 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 08:31 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5987

Score SMA

0.6229

Rank

#37 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.5610

Rank Norm SMA

0.5220

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.8147	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 5.30% · r3d: 0.47% · ema21_slope: 1.6119% · dist_ema21: 11.501%
Force Relative	25%	0.6241	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 5.11% · rs_3d: 1.41% · beta_24h: 1.603
Volume	20%	0.3863	rvol_20: 0.89× · zscore_50: -0.032 · trend: 45.01%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8069	ADX: 36.8 (trend) · Chop: 30.1 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 8.866% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.5288

Score SMA

0.5399

Rank

#28 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.7568

Rank Norm SMA

0.5117

Calculé le

30/09/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5587	r1h: -1.970% · r4h: 2.288% · r1d: 2.55% · r3d: -1.93% · ema21_slope: 0.1136% · dist_ema21: 1.985%
Force Relative	25%	0.4819	rs_1h: -1.976% · rs_4h: 1.543% · rs_1d: 3.06% · rs_3d: -0.75% · beta_24h: 2.968
Volume	20%	0.2852	rvol_20: 0.98× · zscore_50: -0.336 · trend: -26.53%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5581	ADX: 25.3 (trend) · Chop: 57.0 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.202% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.5103

Score SMA

0.5720

Rank

#34 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.5098

Rank Norm SMA

0.5524

Calculé le

30/09/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6426	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 2.288% · r1d: 2.55% · r3d: -1.93% · ema21_slope: -0.0842% · dist_ema21: 3.053%
Force Relative	25%	0.5715	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.543% · rs_1d: 3.06% · rs_3d: -0.75% · beta_24h: 2.803
Volume	20%	0.1536	rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -0.829 · trend: -43.33%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6133	ADX: 33.7 (trend) · Chop: 58.9 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.5197	ATR%: 4.441% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -5.088% (0.0005)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+4.168%	0.8R	-0.597%	0.1R	7.0×	12
2h	+4.168%	0.8R	-3.963%	0.8R	1.1×	24
4h	+4.168%	0.8R	-4.335%	0.9R	1.0×	48
8h	+4.168%	0.8R	-6.204%	1.2R	0.7×	96
12h ★	+4.168%	0.8R	-7.544%	1.5R	0.6×	144
24h	+4.168%	0.8R	-7.544%	1.5R	0.6×	288

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.44

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high_confirmed	59%	noisy_chop 40%	mid	—	near -0.8ATR	0.72	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.96	28/09 20:00
4h	↑ up	range	range	moderate	balanced	normal	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 32%	early	—	near 0.1ATR	0.57	bull_high	+1.97%	+0.36	30/09 04:00
1h	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_high	62%	noisy_chop 40%	early	—	near -1.0ATR	0.49	range_medium	+0.20%	+0.27	30/09 07:00
15m	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 44%	mid	—	—	0.73	range_low	+0.51%	+0.10	30/09 08:15
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177627	↑ up	bull_high_confirmed	59%	mid 14b 1.0ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.682	— near -0.8ATR	0.89	above_value	+0.34 ATR	—	#97282	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:27
4h 182609	↑ up	bull_high	58%	early 8b 0.7ATR	noisy_chop 32%	0.615	— near 0.1ATR	0.45	above_value	+1.09 ATR	—	#99502	30/09 04:00 upd 30/09 08:18
1h anchor 182608	↑ up	bull_high	62%	early 4b 0.9ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.696	— near -1.0ATR	0.98	above_value	+1.09 ATR	—	#99502	30/09 07:00 upd 30/09 08:18
15m 182786	↑ up	bull_high	63%	mid 6b 0.1ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.716	— —	1.97	above_value	+1.09 ATR	—	#99502	30/09 08:15 upd 30/09 08:32
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	mid	14b	—	3.736×ATR	p53	+1.044×ATR	p58
4h	↑ up	early	8b	—	2.496×ATR	p16	+0.66×ATR	p29
1h	↑ up	early	4b	—	2.001×ATR	p24	+0.919×ATR	p54
15m	↓ down	mid	6b	—	2.955×ATR	p60	+0.115×ATR	p5

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.9159
reason: up_bo width=2.90×ATR dur=52b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.00969954
tp_price: 0.01153864
atr:
score: 0.91594091780545
expires_at: 2026-10-01T00:42:54.182188
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.91594091780545

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.0053
obi_top10 : 0.0157
micro_price : 0.01021671
spread_pct : 0.039166
mid_price : 0.010215
bid_wall_price : 0.0101
bid_wall_size : 49433173.2
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price :
ask_wall_size :
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : -0.0187
obi_top5_std : 0.016
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7017
aggregation_tick : 0.0001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.010055
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.00939
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.0097225
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790586000
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790769600
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.8969
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
52
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.9159
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790762400
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.010055
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.75
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
2
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.7406
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
9
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
7
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 0.00022955

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.75

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.7406

Signaux confirmants (8)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	08:43	0.01022500	+0.049%
2	08:53	0.01022500	+0.049%
3	09:04	0.01022500	+0.049%
4	09:40	0.01026400	+0.431%
5	09:51	0.01026400	+0.431%
6	10:03	0.01026400	+0.431%
7	10:17	0.01021800	-0.02%
8	10:29	0.01021800	-0.02%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7017ms Confidence avant OB : 92% → 92%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.005

avg -0.019 ± 0.016

OBI Top 10 0.016

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0102

Micro Price

0.0102

Spread

0.0392%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.0101

Size

49,433,173.20

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.01022	0.0097	0.01154	2.54	0.008158

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.01022
Stop Loss: 0.0097
Take Profit: 0.01154

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.0097 - 0.01022 = -0.00052
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.01022 - 0.01154 = -0.00132
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00132 / -0.00052 = 2.5385

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
155.6731	100	15224.7555	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -0.00052

Taille de position = 8 / -0.00052 = -15384.62

Taille de position USD = -15384.62 x 0.01022 = -157.23

Donc, tu peux acheter -15384.62 avec un stoploss a 0.0097

Avec un position size USD de -157.23$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -15384.62 x -0.00052 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -15384.62 x -0.00132 = 20.31

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.31$

Résumé

Taille de position -15384.62
Taille de position USD -157.23
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20.31
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5385

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
12.92 %	20.1 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.09 %	7.92 $

PNL	PNL %
-7.92 $	-5.09

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-5.137 %	100.96 %	5

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.01022	0.0097	0.01154	2.54	0.008158

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.01022
Stop Loss: 0.0097
Take Profit: 0.01154

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.0097 - 0.01022 = -0.00052
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.01022 - 0.01154 = -0.00132
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00132 / -0.00052 = 2.5385

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -5.088% (0.0005)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+4.168%	0.8R	-0.597%	0.1R	7.0×	12
2h	+4.168%	0.8R	-3.963%	0.8R	1.1×	24
4h	+4.168%	0.8R	-4.335%	0.9R	1.0×	48
8h	+4.168%	0.8R	-6.204%	1.2R	0.7×	96
12h ★	+4.168%	0.8R	-7.544%	1.5R	0.6×	144
24h	+4.168%	0.8R	-7.544%	1.5R	0.6×	288

computed 1 week ago

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