Long Trade on RENDER

Previous Trade Next Trade

30 Sep 2026 at 09:15:46 hyperliquid

Long Trade on RENDER (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 118.32 RENDER at 1.987$ per unit. Take profit: 2.1556 (8.51 %) & Stop Loss: 1.919 (3.4 %)

RENDER LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 09:15 → 10:20 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 1.9866$

Qty 118.3238 RENDER

Size 235.0621$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 2.1556 (+8.51%)

TP $ 20$

SL 1.919 (-3.4%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.40% / -8$ MAE -4.71% MFE +0.67% 0.2R expires 30 Sep 21:15

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167404)

#46 / 79 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 09:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3828

Quality Score

0.530

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

1.1M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 09:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#46 / 79 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.40 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#46 / 79 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.40 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.56×ATR
4h	clear	1.69×ATR
1d	clear	2.47×ATR

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↑ up	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : +2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : +2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/09 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 30/09 08:00 Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

30/09 08:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4461

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	+2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	bull	exhaustion	0.90

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 88.5%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : broad_risk_on

Leadership : alts

% Positive (universe)

15m	50.9%
1h	92.7%
4h	94.6%
24h	45.5%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	41.8%	+0.01%
4h	72.7%	+2.21%
24h	47.3%	-0.11%

Dispersion : 0.198

Universe : 55 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 09:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5542

Score SMA

0.6440

Rank

#48 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4268

Rank Norm SMA

0.6056

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7349	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.07% · r3d: -4.07% · ema21_slope: 1.9954% · dist_ema21: 10.536%
Force Relative	25%	0.6050	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.27% · rs_3d: -3.14% · beta_24h: 1.439
Volume	20%	0.3375	rvol_20: 0.73× · zscore_50: 0.002 · trend: 24.84%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7664	ADX: 32.0 (trend) · Chop: 24.1 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 6.809% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 09:00

Score brut

0.5300

Score SMA

0.5562

Rank

#46 / 79

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3828

Rank Norm SMA

0.5838

Calculé le

30/09/2026 09:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5954	r1h: 1.312% · r4h: 1.702% · r1d: 1.14% · r3d: -3.02% · ema21_slope: 0.0601% · dist_ema21: 2.213%
Force Relative	25%	0.4353	rs_1h: -0.338% · rs_4h: -0.995% · rs_1d: 0.01% · rs_3d: -3.60% · beta_24h: 0.965
Volume	20%	0.7071	rvol_20: 2.63× · zscore_50: 1.553 · trend: -3.00%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4806	ADX: 12.1 (weak) · Chop: 53.0 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.547% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.5034

Score SMA

0.6182

Rank

#36 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.5714

Rank Norm SMA

0.7242

Calculé le

30/09/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6130	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.272% · r1d: -0.95% · r3d: -4.08% · ema21_slope: -0.0780% · dist_ema21: 0.872%
Force Relative	25%	0.5509	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.528% · rs_1d: -0.43% · rs_3d: -2.89% · beta_24h: 2.157
Volume	20%	0.1503	rvol_20: 0.35× · zscore_50: -0.745 · trend: -53.46%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4079	ADX: 18.7 (weak) · Chop: 68.8 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.9050	ATR%: 3.285% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.403% (0.0676)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.675%	0.2R	-2.547%	0.8R	0.3×	12
2h	+0.675%	0.2R	-3.690%	1.1R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.675%	0.2R	-3.700%	1.1R	0.2×	48
8h	+0.675%	0.2R	-4.002%	1.2R	0.2×	96
12h ★	+0.675%	0.2R	-4.707%	1.4R	0.1×	143
24h	+0.675%	0.2R	-5.275%	1.6R	0.1×	288

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.29

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	balanced	expansion_after_compression	bull_high_confirmed	66%	noisy_chop 49%	mid	—	—	0.65	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.96	28/09 20:00
4h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 38%	early	—	—	0.57	bull_high	+1.97%	-0.17	30/09 04:00
1h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	weak	grind	normal	bull_high	59%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	—	0.43	bull_medium_confirmed	+1.82%	+0.12	30/09 08:00
15m	↔ neutral	range	range	strong	explosive	expansion	bull_medium_confirmed	61%	noisy_chop 46%	late	—	near -0.8ATR	0.67	bull_low_confirmed	+2.06%	+0.02	30/09 08:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177592	↔ neutral	bull_high_confirmed	66%	mid 13b 1.2ATR	noisy_chop 49%	0.500	— —	0.73	value	+4.58 ATR	—	#97272	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:25
4h 182582	↑ up	bull_high	60%	early 18b 0.3ATR	noisy_chop 38%	0.693	— —	0.35	above_value	+1.02 ATR	—	#99493	30/09 04:00 upd 30/09 08:16
1h anchor 183014	↑ up	bull_high	59%	late 5b 1.5ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.539	— —	2.63	value	+1.77 ATR	—	#99737	30/09 08:00 upd 30/09 09:10
15m 182938	↔ neutral	bull_medium_confirmed	61%	late 2b 2.3ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.684	— near -0.8ATR	1.35	above_value	+1.02 ATR	—	#99493	30/09 08:45 upd 30/09 09:02
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	mid	13b	—	4.825×ATR	p68	+1.199×ATR	p62
4h	↓ down	early	18b	—	2.131×ATR	p12	+0.26×ATR	p14
1h	↑ up	late	5b	—	2.479×ATR	p49	+1.479×ATR	p80
15m	↑ up	late	2b	—	3.543×ATR	p63	+2.294×ATR	p97

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.9259
reason: up_bo width=2.54×ATR dur=45b phase=fresh
stop_price: 1.91898892
tp_price: 2.15562769
atr:
score: 0.92587362408924
expires_at: 2026-10-01T01:15:38.457712
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.92587362408924

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.0115
obi_top10 : -0.0224
micro_price : 1.99048584
spread_pct : 0.035178
mid_price : 1.99025
bid_wall_price : 1.98
bid_wall_size : 113842.4
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 2
ask_wall_size : 122918.12
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.0032
obi_top5_std : 0.0069
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7005
aggregation_tick : 0.01
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
1.9588
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
1.885
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
1.9219
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790614800
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790773200
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.5351
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
45
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.9259
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790769600
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
1.9588
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.8444
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.955
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
0
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
13
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
4
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 0.02911078

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.8444

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.955

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	09:15	1.98660000	0%
2	09:26	1.98660000	0%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7005ms Confidence avant OB : 93% → 93%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.012

avg 0.003 ± 0.007

OBI Top 10 -0.022

Microstructure

Mid Price

1.9903

Micro Price

1.9905

Spread

0.0352%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

1.9800

Size

113,842.40

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

2.0000

Size

122,918.12

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
1.9866	1.919	2.1556	2.5	1.9079

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 1.9866
Stop Loss: 1.919
Take Profit: 2.1556

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 1.919 - 1.9866 = -0.0676
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 1.9866 - 2.1556 = -0.169
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.169 / -0.0676 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
235.0621	100	118.3238	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -0.0676

Taille de position = 8 / -0.0676 = -118.34

Taille de position USD = -118.34 x 1.9866 = -235.09

Donc, tu peux acheter -118.34 avec un stoploss a 1.919

Avec un position size USD de -235.09$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -118.34 x -0.0676 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -118.34 x -0.169 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

Taille de position -118.34
Taille de position USD -235.09
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
8.51 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.4 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-3.40

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.4431 %	101.18 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
1.9866	1.919	2.1556	2.5	1.9079

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 1.9866
Stop Loss: 1.919
Take Profit: 2.1556

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 1.919 - 1.9866 = -0.0676
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 1.9866 - 2.1556 = -0.169
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.169 / -0.0676 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 2.1556
            [entry_price] => 1.9866
            [stop_loss] => 1.91224
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 18:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.403% (0.0676)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.675%	0.2R	-2.547%	0.8R	0.3×	12
2h	+0.675%	0.2R	-3.690%	1.1R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.675%	0.2R	-3.700%	1.1R	0.2×	48
8h	+0.675%	0.2R	-4.002%	1.2R	0.2×	96
12h ★	+0.675%	0.2R	-4.707%	1.4R	0.1×	143
24h	+0.675%	0.2R	-5.275%	1.6R	0.1×	288

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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