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Long Trade on SPX

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30 Sep 2026 at 12:15:09 hyperliquid

Long Trade on SPX (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 379.24 SPX at 0.449$ per unit. Take profit: 0.4598 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4275 (4.7 %)

SPX LONG momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 12:15 → 18:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.4486$

Qty 379.2375 SPX

Size 170.1297$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.4598 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.25$

SL 0.4275 (-4.7%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.53

Status loss PnL -2.59% / -4.41$ MAE -4.21% MFE +0.95% 0.2R expires 30 Sep 18:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167647)
#6 / 76 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 12:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7804

Quality Score
0.613
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 12:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#6 / 76 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.70 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#6 / 76 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.70 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.10×ATR
4h clear 0.84×ATR
1d clear 3.73×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : +2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (-2)

30/09 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1)

30/09 10:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4473
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 +2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range range 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 28.1%
Impulse : +0.00
Participation : btc_led_risk_on
Leadership : btc
% Positive (universe)
15m 64.9%
1h 64.9%
4h 24.6%
24h 56.1%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 63.2% +0.10%
4h 21.1% -1.16%
24h 36.8% +0.44%
Dispersion : 0.197
Universe : 57 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 30/09 12:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2473
Score SMA
0.2888
Rank
#82 / 83
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0122
Rank Norm SMA
0.0035
Calculé le
29/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.1967 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.91% · r3d: -8.85% · ema21_slope: -0.5444% · dist_ema21: -11.001%
Force Relative 25% 0.1880 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.11% · rs_3d: -7.92% · beta_24h: 1.938
Volume 20% 0.3226 rvol_20: 0.92× · zscore_50: -0.035 · trend: -6.24%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5115 ADX: 18.1 (weak) · Chop: 55.4 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 10.664% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.6132
Score SMA
0.4728
Rank
#6 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7804
Rank Norm SMA
0.2731
Calculé le
30/09/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7312 r1h: 1.121% · r4h: 3.308% · r1d: 8.01% · r3d: 0.88% · ema21_slope: 0.2044% · dist_ema21: 3.349%
Force Relative 25% 0.6875 rs_1h: 0.724% · rs_4h: 3.019% · rs_1d: 6.72% · rs_3d: 1.25% · beta_24h: 1.531
Volume 20% 0.2493 rvol_20: 0.44× · zscore_50: -0.411 · trend: 7.49%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6559 ADX: 23.3 (weak) · Chop: 42.9 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.934% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5292
Score SMA
0.3666
Rank
#35 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3550
Rank Norm SMA
0.0425
Calculé le
30/09/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4882 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 3.308% · r1d: 8.01% · r3d: 0.88% · ema21_slope: -0.2955% · dist_ema21: 3.060%
Force Relative 25% 0.6345 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 3.019% · rs_1d: 6.72% · rs_3d: 1.25% · beta_24h: 2.410
Volume 20% 0.3478 rvol_20: 1.35× · zscore_50: -0.209 · trend: -30.25%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6332 ADX: 31.2 (trend) · Chop: 53.9 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.7828 ATR%: 3.652% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.704% (0.0211)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.945% 0.2R -1.179% 0.3R 0.8× 12
2h +0.945% 0.2R -2.490% 0.5R 0.4× 24
4h +0.945% 0.2R -4.209% 0.9R 0.2× 48
6h ★ +0.945% 0.2R -4.209% 0.9R 0.2× 72
8h +0.945% 0.2R -4.209% 0.9R 0.2× 96
12h +1.313% 0.3R -4.209% 0.9R 0.3× 144

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.47
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
45%
noisy_chop 38% mid — — 0.73 bull_high +12.90% -0.97 28/09 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 39% early — — 0.63 bull_high +1.97% -0.35 30/09 04:00
1h ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high_confirmed
64%
noisy_chop 39% mid — near -0.1ATR 0.58 range_medium +0.03% +0.47 30/09 10:00
15m ↑ up transition bullish_transition weak fading volatile_reversal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 43% early — near 0.0ATR 0.72 range_medium +0.52% +0.24 30/09 11:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
177631 		↔ neutral bear_high
45%
mid 25b -1.2ATR noisy_chop 38% 0.554

—

—

0.92 value -3.72 ATR — #97284 28/09 20:00
upd 29/09 20:28
4h
182615 		↓ down bear_high
57%
early 8b 0.0ATR noisy_chop 39% 0.488

—

—

0.90 value -2.21 ATR — #99504 30/09 04:00
upd 30/09 08:18
1h anchor
183816 		↑ up bull_high_confirmed
64%
mid 1b 1.4ATR noisy_chop 39% 0.685

—

near -0.1ATR

1.06 above_value -0.68 ATR — #100064 30/09 10:00
upd 30/09 11:11
15m
184134 		↑ up bull_high
54%
early 5b 0.9ATR noisy_chop 43% 0.345

—

near 0.0ATR

0.18 above_value -0.68 ATR — #100064 30/09 11:45
upd 30/09 12:03
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 25b — 5.843×ATR p67 -1.168×ATR p68
4h ↑ up early 8b — 2.307×ATR p10 +0.019×ATR p2
1h ↓ down mid 1b — 1.573×ATR p7 +1.36×ATR p75
15m ↑ up early 5b — 1.922×ATR p20 +0.917×ATR p58

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - BUY

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.42751504
  2. tp_price: 0.45982525
  3. atr: 0.00843798
  4. expires_at: 2026-09-30T22:15:09+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 4
  2. total: 78
  3. score: 0.6869
  4. delta_2h: 0.1214
  5. extension_atr: 2.19
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.7837
  9. confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.4486 0.4275 0.4598 0.53 0.3502
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.4486
  • Stop Loss: 0.4275
  • Take Profit: 0.4598

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.4275 - 0.4486 = -0.0211

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.4486 - 0.4598 = -0.0112

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0112 / -0.0211 = 0.5308

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
170.1297 100 379.2375 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.0211

Taille de position = 8 / -0.0211 = -379.15

Taille de position USD = -379.15 x 0.4486 = -170.09

Donc, tu peux acheter -379.15 avec un stoploss a 0.4275

Avec un position size USD de -170.09$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -379.15 x -0.0211 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -379.15 x -0.0112 = 4.25

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.25$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -379.15
  • Taille de position USD -170.09
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 4.25
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5308

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 4.25 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
4.7 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-4.41 $ -2.59
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-4.2086 % 89.48 % 4
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.4486 0.4275 0.4598 0.53 0.3502
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.4486
  • Stop Loss: 0.4275
  • Take Profit: 0.4598

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.4275 - 0.4486 = -0.0211

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.4486 - 0.4598 = -0.0112

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0112 / -0.0211 = 0.5308

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.704% (0.0211)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.945% 0.2R -1.179% 0.3R 0.8× 12
2h +0.945% 0.2R -2.490% 0.5R 0.4× 24
4h +0.945% 0.2R -4.209% 0.9R 0.2× 48
6h ★ +0.945% 0.2R -4.209% 0.9R 0.2× 72
8h +0.945% 0.2R -4.209% 0.9R 0.2× 96
12h +1.313% 0.3R -4.209% 0.9R 0.3× 144

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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