Short Trade on CHIP

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30 Sep 2026 at 15:13:48 hyperliquid

Short Trade on CHIP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 7988.82 CHIP at 0.0435$ per unit. Take profit: 0.04104 (5.76 %) & Stop Loss: 0.04455 (2.3 %)

CHIP SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 15:13 → 03:10 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.04355$

Qty 7988.8157 CHIP

Size 347.8969$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.04104 (+5.76%)

TP $ 20.05$

SL 0.04455 (-2.3%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 2.51

Status loss PnL -1.19% / -4.13$ MAE -1.74% MFE +2.61% 1.1R expires 01 Oct 03:13 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167972)

#69 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 15:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5373

Quality Score

0.416

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

86 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

2.4M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 15:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#69 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

86 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.30 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#69 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

86 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.30 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.25×ATR
4h	near	0.28×ATR
1d	clear	2.55×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 30/09 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 14:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

30/09 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 14:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4485

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 31.6%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	57.6%
1h	8.5%
4h	37.3%
24h	44.1%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	62.7%	+0.05%
4h	35.6%	-0.25%
24h	39.0%	-0.29%

Dispersion : 0.148

Universe : 59 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 15:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4190

Score SMA

0.4981

Rank

#79 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0488

Rank Norm SMA

0.1728

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6665	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.21% · r3d: -9.74% · ema21_slope: 0.4223% · dist_ema21: -1.928%
Force Relative	25%	0.4332	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.02% · rs_3d: -8.80% · beta_24h: 2.692
Volume	20%	0.1566	rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -0.907 · trend: -37.18%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5294	ADX: 24.9 (weak) · Chop: 60.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.961% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 15:00

Score brut

0.4160

Score SMA

0.5249

Rank

#69 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.5373

Rank Norm SMA

0.4174

Calculé le

30/09/2026 15:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3619	r1h: -1.305% · r4h: -2.315% · r1d: -3.09% · r3d: -8.77% · ema21_slope: 0.0566% · dist_ema21: -2.373%
Force Relative	25%	0.2905	rs_1h: -1.204% · rs_4h: -2.478% · rs_1d: -3.45% · rs_3d: -7.74% · beta_24h: 1.776
Volume	20%	0.3955	rvol_20: 0.91× · zscore_50: 0.147 · trend: 40.15%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5225	ADX: 12.4 (weak) · Chop: 48.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.216% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.5132

Score SMA

0.4692

Rank

#48 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2492

Rank Norm SMA

0.2149

Calculé le

30/09/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3963	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.927% · r1d: 1.72% · r3d: -4.95% · ema21_slope: -0.2832% · dist_ema21: -0.776%
Force Relative	25%	0.4729	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.217% · rs_1d: 0.43% · rs_3d: -4.58% · beta_24h: 2.745
Volume	20%	0.7952	rvol_20: 3.61× · zscore_50: 1.672 · trend: 12.83%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3789	ADX: 13.5 (weak) · Chop: 67.1 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.6017	ATR%: 4.195% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.296% (0.0010)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+2.606%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+2.606%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+2.606%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	48
8h	+2.606%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	96
12h ★	+2.606%	1.1R	-1.743%	0.8R	1.5×	144
24h	+5.630%	2.5R	-1.743%	0.8R	3.2×	288

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.46

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	50%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	—	bull_high	+12.90%	-0.98	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	50%	noisy_chop 39%	early	near 0.3ATR	—	0.36	bull_high	+2.22%	-0.72	30/09 08:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	strong	balanced	expansion	bear_high	56%	noisy_chop 38%	mid	near -0.3ATR	—	0.35	range_medium	+0.17%	-0.26	30/09 14:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	strong	balanced	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 52%	late	near -1.1ATR	—	0.65	range_low	+0.16%	-0.53	30/09 14:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177691	↔ neutral	bull_high	50%	early 13b -0.2ATR	noisy_chop 37%	0.656	— —	0.45	below_value	-5.56 ATR	—	#97310	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:31
4h 184345	↔ neutral	bear_high	50%	early 9b -0.2ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.658	near 0.3ATR —	3.61	below_value	-4.86 ATR	—	#100243	30/09 08:00 upd 30/09 12:20
1h anchor 185454	↓ down	bear_high	56%	mid 2b -1.0ATR	noisy_chop 38%	0.498	near -0.3ATR —	0.91	below_value	-5.84 ATR	—	#100778	30/09 14:00 upd 30/09 15:12
15m 185378	↓ down	bear_high	57%	late 11b -2.2ATR	noisy_chop 52%	0.505	near -1.1ATR —	0.51	below_value	-5.30 ATR	—	#100622	30/09 14:45 upd 30/09 15:04
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	13b	—	1.562×ATR	p0	-0.157×ATR	p5
4h	↑ up	early	9b	—	1.423×ATR	p0	-0.202×ATR	p12
1h	↓ down	mid	2b	—	1.927×ATR	p25	-1.029×ATR	p62
15m	↓ down	late	11b	—	4.119×ATR	p82	-2.164×ATR	p92

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.8555
reason: down_bo width=1.97×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.0445494
tp_price: 0.04104449
atr:
score: 0.85545854328384
expires_at: 2026-10-01T07:13:40.610518
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.85545854328384

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.0104
obi_top10 : 0.0366
micro_price : 0.04344376
spread_pct : 0.069077
mid_price : 0.043445
bid_wall_price :
bid_wall_size :
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price :
ask_wall_size :
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.005
obi_top5_std : 0.0197
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7059
aggregation_tick : 0.0001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.0453555
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.0435615
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.0444585
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790679600
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790794800
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
1.9735
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
33
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8555
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790791200
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.0435615
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.8182
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.0149
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
6
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
9
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.00090903

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.8182

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.0149

Signaux confirmants (5)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	15:13	0.04354800	-0.005%
2	15:25	0.04354800	-0.005%
3	15:36	0.04354800	-0.005%
4	15:48	0.04343100	-0.273%
5	15:59	0.04343100	-0.273%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7059ms Confidence avant OB : 86% → 86%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.010

avg 0.005 ± 0.020

OBI Top 10 0.037

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0434

Micro Price

0.0434

Spread

0.0691%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.04355	0.04455	0.04104	2.51	0.04848

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.04355
Stop Loss: 0.04455
Take Profit: 0.04104

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.04455 - 0.04355 = 0.001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.04355 - 0.04104 = 0.00251
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00251 / 0.001 = 2.51

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
347.8969	100	7988.8157	3.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.001

Taille de position = 8 / 0.001 = 8000

Taille de position USD = 8000 x 0.04355 = 348.4

Donc, tu peux acheter 8000 avec un stoploss a 0.04455

Avec un position size USD de 348.4$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 8000 x 0.001 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 8000 x 0.00251 = 20.08

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.08$

Résumé

Taille de position 8000
Taille de position USD 348.4
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20.08
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.51

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
5.76 %	20.05 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.3 %	7.99 $

PNL	PNL %
-4.13 $	-1.19

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.7428 %	75.9 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.04355	0.04455	0.04104	2.51	0.04848

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.04355
Stop Loss: 0.04455
Take Profit: 0.04104

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.04455 - 0.04355 = 0.001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.04355 - 0.04104 = 0.00251
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00251 / 0.001 = 2.51

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.296% (0.0010)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+2.606%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+2.606%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+2.606%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	48
8h	+2.606%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	96
12h ★	+2.606%	1.1R	-1.743%	0.8R	1.5×	144
24h	+5.630%	2.5R	-1.743%	0.8R	3.2×	288

computed 2 weeks ago

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