Short Trade on MORPHO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 88.27 MORPHO at 2.476$ per unit. Take profit: 2.2497 (9.15 %) & Stop Loss: 2.5669 (3.66 %)
30 Sep 2026 at 16:10:35
hyperliquid
MORPHO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
30 Sep 2026 16:10
→ 04:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 2.4763$
Qty 88.2703 MORPHO
Size 218.5836$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 2.2497 (+9.15%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2.5669 (-3.66%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.09%
/ -0.19$
MAE -3.15%
MFE +0.46%
0.1R
expires
01 Oct 04:10
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 168027)
#65 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 16:00
score du 30/09/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2288
Quality Score
0.446
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 16:02
30/09 16:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#65 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-2
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-4
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.66 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#65 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-4
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.66 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.16×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 4.23×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.76×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 30/09 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 14:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4489
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic | bull | expansion | 0.90 | -2 |
| Operational | range | range | 0.25 | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | 0.25 | 0 |
| Micro | range | range | 0.25 |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
30.0%
Impulse :
+0.00
Participation :
mixed_dispersion
Leadership :
mixed
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 45.0% |
| 1h | 50.0% |
| 4h | 23.3% |
| 24h | 48.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 38.3% | -0.10% |
| 4h | 35.0% | -0.79% |
| 24h | 43.3% | -0.00% |
Dispersion :
0.165
Universe :
60
(≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
30/09 16:01
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
29/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4646
Score SMA
0.5642
Rank
#74
/ 83
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1098
Rank Norm SMA
0.3154
Calculé le
29/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5937 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.46% · r3d: -9.31% · ema21_slope: 0.8257% · dist_ema21: -2.045% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3533 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.66% · rs_3d: -8.37% · beta_24h: 1.066 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4475 | rvol_20: 1.04× · zscore_50: 0.575 · trend: 41.49% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7242 | ADX: 28.7 (trend) · Chop: 40.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.564% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
30/09/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4459
Score SMA
—
Rank
—
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2288
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
30/09/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3599 | r1h: -1.036% · r4h: -2.731% · r1d: 0.66% · r3d: -8.05% · ema21_slope: 0.0468% · dist_ema21: -2.329% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3818 | rs_1h: -0.632% · rs_4h: -2.096% · rs_1d: 0.63% · rs_3d: -6.73% · beta_24h: 1.498 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1788 | rvol_20: 0.52× · zscore_50: -0.461 · trend: -45.62% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5488 | ADX: 18.3 (weak) · Chop: 51.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.864% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
30/09/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3635
Score SMA
—
Rank
—
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0994
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
30/09/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2856 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.731% · r1d: 0.66% · r3d: -8.05% · ema21_slope: -0.3022% · dist_ema21: -3.562% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3945 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.096% · rs_1d: 0.63% · rs_3d: -6.73% · beta_24h: 2.640 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1620 | rvol_20: 0.26× · zscore_50: -0.882 · trend: -34.36% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4274 | ADX: 20.9 (weak) · Chop: 68.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6745 | ATR%: 3.976% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.659%
(0.0906)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.860% | 0.2R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.097% | 0.0R | -0.860% | 0.2R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.097% | 0.0R | -1.648% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.097% | 0.0R | -1.757% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.464% | 0.1R | -3.154% | 0.9R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.292% | 0.4R | -3.437% | 0.9R | 0.4× | 288 |
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.16
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.50 | bull_high | +12.90% | +0.04 | 28/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | range_high |
35%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | — | 0.39 | bull_high | +2.22% | -0.69 | 30/09 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.38 | range_medium | +0.17% | +0.02 | 30/09 14:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.59 | range_low | -0.24% | -0.11 | 30/09 15:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Regime | Tradability | Move | PAQ | Momentum | Near S/D | RVOL | Vol zone | POC dist | LVN | VP ref | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
177633 |
↑ up | bull_high |
60%
|
early 4b -0.2ATR | noisy_chop 37% | 0.701 |
— — |
1.04 | below_value | -6.08 ATR | — | #97285 |
28/09 20:00
upd 29/09 20:28
|
|
4h
184276 |
↓ down | range_high |
35%
|
early 9b -0.3ATR | noisy_chop 41% | 0.408 |
— — |
0.94 | below_value | -3.75 ATR | — | #100220 |
30/09 08:00
upd 30/09 12:17
|
|
1h
anchor
185432 |
↔ neutral | bear_high |
57%
|
mid 6b -0.8ATR | noisy_chop 39% | 0.527 |
near -0.2ATR — |
0.27 | below_value | -4.96 ATR | — | #100755 |
30/09 14:00
upd 30/09 15:11
|
|
15m
185750 |
↓ down | bear_high |
57%
|
late 12b -2.6ATR | noisy_chop 40% | 0.619 |
near 0.0ATR — |
1.86 | below_value | -4.96 ATR | — | #100755 |
30/09 15:45
upd 30/09 16:03
|
|
5m
|
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade | ||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 2.399×ATR | p5 | -0.221×ATR | p17 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 9b | — | 1.321×ATR | p0 | -0.309×ATR | p26 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 6b | — | 2.95×ATR | p57 | -0.801×ATR | p43 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 12b | — | 4.35×ATR | p82 | -2.564×ATR | p90 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8911
- reason: down_bo width=2.85×ATR dur=60b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 2.56693075
- tp_price: 2.24972312
- atr:
- score: 0.89108046933456
- expires_at: 2026-10-01T08:10:27.283428
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.89108046933456
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.066
- obi_top10 : 0.1703
- micro_price : 2.47435
- spread_pct : 0.052553
- mid_price : 2.47435
- bid_wall_price : 2.45
- bid_wall_size : 16763
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 2.48
- ask_wall_size : 11093.2
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1324
- obi_top5_std : 0.0605
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7093
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2.6243
- balance_zone_bottom:
2.5009
- balance_zone_mid:
2.5626
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790586000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790798400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.8494
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
60
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8911
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790794800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2.5009
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6667
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.568
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
13
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.04330751 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
60
inside_close_ratio
0.6667
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.568
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:10 | 2.47630000 | 0% |
| 2 | 16:22 | 2.47630000 | 0% |
| 3 | 16:33 | 2.47630000 | 0% |
| 4 | 16:44 | 2.48730000 | +0.444% |
| 5 | 16:55 | 2.48730000 | +0.444% |
| 6 | 17:07 | 2.48730000 | +0.444% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7093ms
Confidence avant OB :
89%
→
89%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.066
avg 0.132
± 0.061
OBI Top 10
0.170
Microstructure
Mid Price
2.4744
Micro Price
2.4744
Spread
0.0526%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
2.4500
Size
16,763.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
2.4800
Size
11,093.20
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.4763 | 2.5669 | 2.2497 | 2.5 | 2.3843 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.4763
- Stop Loss: 2.5669
- Take Profit: 2.2497
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.5669 - 2.4763 = 0.0906
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.4763 - 2.2497 = 0.2266
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2266 / 0.0906 = 2.5011
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 218.5836 | 100 | 88.2703 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0906
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0906 = 88.3
Taille de position USD = 88.3 x 2.4763 = 218.66
Donc, tu peux acheter 88.3 avec un stoploss a 2.5669
Avec un position size USD de 218.66$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 88.3 x 0.0906 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 88.3 x 0.2266 = 20.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$
Résumé
- Taille de position 88.3
- Taille de position USD 218.66
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.01
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5011
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.15 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.66 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.19 $ | -0.09 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.1539 % | 86.2 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.4763 | 2.5669 | 2.2497 | 2.5 | 2.3843 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.4763
- Stop Loss: 2.5669
- Take Profit: 2.2497
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.5669 - 2.4763 = 0.0906
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.4763 - 2.2497 = 0.2266
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2266 / 0.0906 = 2.5011
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.659%
(0.0906)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.860% | 0.2R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.097% | 0.0R | -0.860% | 0.2R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.097% | 0.0R | -1.648% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.097% | 0.0R | -1.757% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.464% | 0.1R | -3.154% | 0.9R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.292% | 0.4R | -3.437% | 0.9R | 0.4× | 288 |
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.