Short Trade on ONDO

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30 Sep 2026 at 16:15:10 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ONDO (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 289.47 ONDO at 0.493$ per unit. Take profit: 0.4803 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.5202 (5.6 %)

ONDO SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 16:15 → 22:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.4926$

Qty 289.4654 ONDO

Size 142.5936$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.4803 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.56$

SL 0.5202 (-5.6%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 0.45

Status loss PnL -2.16% / -3.07$ MAE -4.17% MFE +0.24% 0.0R expires 30 Sep 22:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168010)

#56 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 16:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3862

Quality Score

0.451

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

40.0M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 16:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#56 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.60 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#56 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.60 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.60×ATR
4h	clear	2.26×ATR
1d	clear	3.61×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 30/09 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 15:00 Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

30/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 15:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4489

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 30.0%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	45.0%
1h	50.0%
4h	23.3%
24h	48.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	38.3%	-0.10%
4h	35.0%	-0.79%
24h	43.3%	-0.00%

Dispersion : 0.165

Universe : 60 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 16:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.6202

Score SMA

0.7084

Rank

#29 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.6585

Rank Norm SMA

0.7121

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7351	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.44% · r3d: -6.77% · ema21_slope: 2.3727% · dist_ema21: 11.033%
Force Relative	25%	0.6348	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.63% · rs_3d: -5.83% · beta_24h: 1.525
Volume	20%	0.6077	rvol_20: 1.40× · zscore_50: 0.968 · trend: 151.89%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7960	ADX: 35.5 (trend) · Chop: 17.5 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 8.802% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.4511

Score SMA

0.5675

Rank

#56 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3862

Rank Norm SMA

0.5321

Calculé le

30/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3415	r1h: 0.284% · r4h: -2.223% · r1d: -4.14% · r3d: -11.89% · ema21_slope: -0.0394% · dist_ema21: -2.688%
Force Relative	25%	0.3554	rs_1h: 0.688% · rs_4h: -1.588% · rs_1d: -4.17% · rs_3d: -10.57% · beta_24h: 1.740
Volume	20%	0.4820	rvol_20: 1.22× · zscore_50: 0.337 · trend: 57.85%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5818	ADX: 12.1 (weak) · Chop: 40.5 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.388% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.3918

Score SMA

0.6249

Rank

#63 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2580

Rank Norm SMA

0.6622

Calculé le

30/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4039	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.223% · r1d: -4.14% · r3d: -11.89% · ema21_slope: -0.2607% · dist_ema21: -4.386%
Force Relative	25%	0.4518	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.588% · rs_1d: -4.17% · rs_3d: -10.57% · beta_24h: 2.502
Volume	20%	0.4100	rvol_20: 1.28× · zscore_50: 0.234 · trend: 2.32%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4859	ADX: 23.6 (weak) · Chop: 64.3 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.3568	ATR%: 4.930% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.603% (0.0276)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.226%	0.2R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.244%	0.0R	-1.251%	0.2R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.244%	0.0R	-2.180%	0.4R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.244%	0.0R	-4.168%	0.7R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.244%	0.0R	-4.168%	0.7R	0.1×	96
12h	+0.244%	0.0R	-4.235%	0.8R	0.1×	144

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.19

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	72%	noisy_chop 46%	mid	—	—	0.58	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.99	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high	41%	noisy_chop 36%	late	—	—	0.54	bull_high	+1.54%	-0.73	30/09 12:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bear_high	46%	noisy_chop 39%	mid	near -0.6ATR	—	0.43	range_medium	-0.23%	-0.23	30/09 15:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	grind	compression	bear_high	63%	noisy_chop 45%	mid	—	—	0.67	range_low	-0.24%	-0.19	30/09 15:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177559	↑ up	bull_high	72%	mid 1b 1.0ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.714	— —	1.40	value	-1.33 ATR	—	#97264	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:24
4h 185847	↔ neutral	bull_high	41%	late 15b -1.0ATR	noisy_chop 36%	0.555	— —	1.28	below_value	-2.18 ATR	—	#100894	30/09 12:00 upd 30/09 16:15
1h anchor 185846	↓ down	bear_high	46%	mid 3b -1.1ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.382	near -0.6ATR —	1.22	below_value	-2.18 ATR	—	#100894	30/09 15:00 upd 30/09 16:15
15m 185733	↓ down	bear_high	63%	mid 5b -1.3ATR	noisy_chop 45%	0.477	— —	0.33	below_value	-2.25 ATR	—	#100738	30/09 15:45 upd 30/09 16:02
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	1b	—	2.415×ATR	p0	+0.953×ATR	p61
4h	↓ down	late	15b	—	4.907×ATR	p85	-1.019×ATR	p58
1h	↓ down	mid	3b	—	2.019×ATR	p27	-1.124×ATR	p71
15m	↑ up	mid	5b	—	2.028×ATR	p17	-1.339×ATR	p79

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.52024715
tp_price: 0.48029475
atr: 0.01105486
expires_at: 2026-10-01T02:15:10+00:00

Details

rank: 72
total: 77
score: 0.3317
delta_2h: -0.0272
extension_atr: -0.87
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.3582
confidence: 0.934

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.4926	0.5202	0.4803	0.45	0.4369

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.4926
Stop Loss: 0.5202
Take Profit: 0.4803

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.5202 - 0.4926 = 0.0276
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.4926 - 0.4803 = 0.0123
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0123 / 0.0276 = 0.4457

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
142.5936	100	289.4654	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.0276

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0276 = 289.86

Taille de position USD = 289.86 x 0.4926 = 142.79

Donc, tu peux acheter 289.86 avec un stoploss a 0.5202

Avec un position size USD de 142.79$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 289.86 x 0.0276 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 289.86 x 0.0123 = 3.57

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.57$

Résumé

Taille de position 289.86
Taille de position USD 142.79
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.57
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4457

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.56 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.6 %	7.99 $

PNL	PNL %
-3.07 $	-2.16

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-4.1677 %	74.38 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.4926	0.5202	0.4803	0.45	0.4369

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.4926
Stop Loss: 0.5202
Take Profit: 0.4803

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.5202 - 0.4926 = 0.0276
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.4926 - 0.4803 = 0.0123
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0123 / 0.0276 = 0.4457

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.603% (0.0276)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.226%	0.2R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.244%	0.0R	-1.251%	0.2R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.244%	0.0R	-2.180%	0.4R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.244%	0.0R	-4.168%	0.7R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.244%	0.0R	-4.168%	0.7R	0.1×	96
12h	+0.244%	0.0R	-4.235%	0.8R	0.1×	144

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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