Short Trade on AR

Previous Trade Next Trade

30 Sep 2026 at 16:15:10 hyperliquid

Short Trade on AR (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 37.03 AR at 4.073$ per unit. Take profit: 3.9712 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.2891 (5.31 %)

AR SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 16:15 → 22:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 4.073$

Qty 37.0271 AR

Size 150.8113$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 3.9712 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.77$

SL 4.2891 (-5.31%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.47

Status win PnL +0.94% / +1.41$ MAE -1.40% MFE +1.14% 0.2R expires 30 Sep 22:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168014)

#72 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 16:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2924

Quality Score

0.420

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

96 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

2.5M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 16:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#72 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-2

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-4 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.31 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#72 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-4 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.31 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.23×ATR
4h	clear	—
1d	clear	2.79×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	—	—	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3) 28/09 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 30/09 14:00 Score : -2 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3)

28/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

30/09 14:00

Score : -2 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4489

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 30.0%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	45.0%
1h	50.0%
4h	23.3%
24h	48.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	38.3%	-0.10%
4h	35.0%	-0.79%
24h	43.3%	-0.00%

Dispersion : 0.165

Universe : 60 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 16:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5263

Score SMA

0.6488

Rank

#57 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3171

Rank Norm SMA

0.6196

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6710	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.26% · r3d: -10.53% · ema21_slope: 3.7241% · dist_ema21: 9.345%
Force Relative	25%	0.4903	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.46% · rs_3d: -9.59% · beta_24h: 2.344
Volume	20%	0.3267	rvol_20: 0.46× · zscore_50: -0.105 · trend: 50.30%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.9142	ADX: 49.7 (trend) · Chop: 26.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 10.984% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.4200

Score SMA

0.5190

Rank

#72 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2924

Rank Norm SMA

0.3990

Calculé le

30/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2477	r1h: -0.409% · r4h: -6.139% · r1d: -3.18% · r3d: -17.89% · ema21_slope: -0.0480% · dist_ema21: -4.037%
Force Relative	25%	0.2200	rs_1h: -0.005% · rs_4h: -5.504% · rs_1d: -3.21% · rs_3d: -16.57% · beta_24h: 1.628
Volume	20%	0.4211	rvol_20: 0.63× · zscore_50: -0.005 · trend: 159.36%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6551	ADX: 18.6 (weak) · Chop: 34.9 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.256% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.3996

Score SMA

0.4917

Rank

#61 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1309

Rank Norm SMA

0.2666

Calculé le

30/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2557	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -6.139% · r1d: -3.18% · r3d: -17.89% · ema21_slope: -0.3823% · dist_ema21: -6.118%
Force Relative	25%	0.1775	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -5.504% · rs_1d: -3.21% · rs_3d: -16.57% · beta_24h: 2.991
Volume	20%	0.9450	rvol_20: 3.69× · zscore_50: 3.030 · trend: 58.76%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3384	ADX: 13.2 (weak) · Chop: 71.8 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.4429	ATR%: 4.671% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.306% (0.2161)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.034%	0.2R	-0.948%	0.2R	1.1×	12
2h	+1.144%	0.2R	-0.948%	0.2R	1.2×	24
4h	+1.144%	0.2R	-1.400%	0.3R	0.8×	48
6h ★	+1.144%	0.2R	-1.400%	0.3R	0.8×	72
8h	+1.144%	0.2R	-1.557%	0.3R	0.7×	96
12h	+1.144%	0.2R	-3.256%	0.6R	0.4×	144

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 1.35

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bull_high_confirmed	63%	noisy_chop 46%	early	—	—	0.55	bull_high	+12.90%	+1.00	28/09 20:00
4h	—
1h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	42%	noisy_chop 38%	late	—	—	0.16	range_medium	+0.17%	-0.40	30/09 14:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	normal	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 42%	late	near -0.8ATR	—	0.59	range_low	-0.24%	-0.49	30/09 15:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177575	↑ up	bull_high_confirmed	63%	early 9b 0.6ATR	noisy_chop 46%	0.823	— —	0.46	below_value	-4.91 ATR	—	#97268	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:25
4h	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
1h anchor 185419	↔ neutral	bear_high_confirmed	42%	late 5b -1.8ATR	noisy_chop 38%	0.587	— —	2.07	below_value	-5.52 ATR	—	#100742	30/09 14:00 upd 30/09 15:10
15m 185737	↓ down	bear_high	54%	late 7b -1.9ATR	noisy_chop 42%	0.494	near -0.8ATR —	0.13	below_value	-5.52 ATR	—	#100742	30/09 15:45 upd 30/09 16:02
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	9b	—	2.284×ATR	p0	+0.581×ATR	p36
1h	↓ down	late	5b	—	3.898×ATR	p82	-1.778×ATR	p86
15m	↓ down	late	7b	—	2.025×ATR	p21	-1.905×ATR	p84

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 4.28905803
tp_price: 3.971175
atr: 0.08642321
expires_at: 2026-10-01T02:15:10+00:00

Details

rank: 74
total: 77
score: 0.2666
delta_2h: -0.0451
extension_atr: -1.65
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.2874
confidence: 0.961

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	16:15	4.07300000	0%
2	17:15	4.06700000	-0.147%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
4.073	4.2891	3.9712	0.47	3.7792

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 4.073
Stop Loss: 4.2891
Take Profit: 3.9712

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.2891 - 4.073 = 0.2161
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 4.073 - 3.9712 = 0.1018
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1018 / 0.2161 = 0.4711

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
150.8113	100	37.0271	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.2161

Taille de position = 8 / 0.2161 = 37.02

Taille de position USD = 37.02 x 4.073 = 150.78

Donc, tu peux acheter 37.02 avec un stoploss a 4.2891

Avec un position size USD de 150.78$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 37.02 x 0.2161 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 37.02 x 0.1018 = 3.77

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.77$

Résumé

Taille de position 37.02
Taille de position USD 150.78
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.77
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4711

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.77 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.31 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
1.41 $	0.94

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.3995 %	26.38 %	5

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
4.073	4.2891	3.9712	0.47	3.7792

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 4.073
Stop Loss: 4.2891
Take Profit: 3.9712

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.2891 - 4.073 = 0.2161
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 4.073 - 3.9712 = 0.1018
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1018 / 0.2161 = 0.4711

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.306% (0.2161)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.034%	0.2R	-0.948%	0.2R	1.1×	12
2h	+1.144%	0.2R	-0.948%	0.2R	1.2×	24
4h	+1.144%	0.2R	-1.400%	0.3R	0.8×	48
6h ★	+1.144%	0.2R	-1.400%	0.3R	0.8×	72
8h	+1.144%	0.2R	-1.557%	0.3R	0.7×	96
12h	+1.144%	0.2R	-3.256%	0.6R	0.4×	144

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.