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Short Trade on AR

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30 Sep 2026 at 17:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on AR (momentum_rotation_score)

With 31.71 AR at 4.067$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 4.3193 (6.2 %)

AR SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 17:15 → 20:15 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 4.067$

Qty 31.7055 AR

Size 128.9464$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 128.95$

SL 4.3193 (-6.2%)

SL $ 8$

RR

Status loss PnL -0.72% / -0.93$ MAE -1.55% MFE +1.00% 0.2R expires 30 Sep 20:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168168)
#68 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 17:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2911

Quality Score
0.424
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 17:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#68 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.20 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#68 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.20 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.88×ATR
4h near -3.04×ATR
1d clear 2.79×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

30/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

30/09 16:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4493
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range range 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 25.6%
Impulse : +0.00
Participation : btc_led_risk_on
Leadership : btc
% Positive (universe)
15m 51.7%
1h 85.0%
4h 11.7%
24h 46.7%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 33.3% +0.01%
4h 30.0% -1.62%
24h 45.0% -0.36%
Dispersion : 0.234
Universe : 60 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 30/09 17:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5263
Score SMA
0.6488
Rank
#57 / 83
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3171
Rank Norm SMA
0.6196
Calculé le
29/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6710 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.26% · r3d: -10.53% · ema21_slope: 3.7241% · dist_ema21: 9.345%
Force Relative 25% 0.4903 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.46% · rs_3d: -9.59% · beta_24h: 2.344
Volume 20% 0.3267 rvol_20: 0.46× · zscore_50: -0.105 · trend: 50.30%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.9142 ADX: 49.7 (trend) · Chop: 26.3 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 10.984% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.4237
Score SMA
0.5170
Rank
#68 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2911
Rank Norm SMA
0.3941
Calculé le
30/09/2026 17:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2339 r1h: -0.460% · r4h: -6.267% · r1d: -3.98% · r3d: -17.48% · ema21_slope: -0.0796% · dist_ema21: -4.088%
Force Relative 25% 0.1874 rs_1h: -0.551% · rs_4h: -5.462% · rs_1d: -4.07% · rs_3d: -16.48% · beta_24h: 1.619
Volume 20% 0.3783 rvol_20: 0.40× · zscore_50: -0.153 · trend: 91.38%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6603 ADX: 19.2 (weak) · Chop: 35.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.247% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4051
Score SMA
0.4918
Rank
#59 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1309
Rank Norm SMA
0.2672
Calculé le
30/09/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2557 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -6.139% · r1d: -3.18% · r3d: -17.89% · ema21_slope: -0.3823% · dist_ema21: -6.118%
Force Relative 25% 0.1775 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -5.504% · rs_1d: -3.21% · rs_3d: -16.57% · beta_24h: 2.991
Volume 20% 0.9450 rvol_20: 3.69× · zscore_50: 3.030 · trend: 58.76%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3384 ADX: 13.2 (weak) · Chop: 71.8 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.4429 ATR%: 4.671% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -6.204% (0.2523)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.998% 0.2R -0.290% 0.1R 3.4× 12
2h +0.998% 0.2R -1.082% 0.2R 0.9× 24
3h ★ +0.998% 0.2R -1.549% 0.3R 0.6× 36
4h +0.998% 0.2R -1.549% 0.3R 0.6× 48
8h +0.998% 0.2R -1.706% 0.3R 0.6× 96
12h +0.998% 0.2R -5.436% 0.9R 0.2× 144

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.04
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
63%
noisy_chop 46% early — — 0.55 bull_high +12.90% +1.00 28/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind compression bull_high
49%
noisy_chop 42% late near -3.0ATR — 0.32 bull_high +1.54% -0.90 30/09 12:00
1h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate balanced volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
42%
noisy_chop 41% late — — 0.17 range_medium -0.14% -0.52 30/09 16:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading compression bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 44% mid near -0.8ATR — 0.58 range_low -0.13% -0.51 30/09 16:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
177575 		↑ up bull_high_confirmed
63%
early 9b 0.6ATR noisy_chop 46% 0.823

—

—

0.46 below_value -4.91 ATR — #97268 28/09 20:00
upd 29/09 20:25
4h
185858 		↔ neutral bull_high
49%
late 18b -1.6ATR noisy_chop 42% 0.611

near -3.0ATR

—

3.69 below_value -5.82 ATR — #100898 30/09 12:00
upd 30/09 16:15
1h anchor
186284 		↔ neutral bear_high_confirmed
42%
late 7b -1.8ATR noisy_chop 41% 0.590

—

—

0.40 below_value -6.08 ATR — #101132 30/09 16:00
upd 30/09 17:10
15m
186208 		↓ down bear_high
55%
mid 6b -1.3ATR noisy_chop 44% 0.742

near -0.8ATR

—

0.03 below_value -5.82 ATR — #100898 30/09 16:45
upd 30/09 17:02
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 9b — 2.284×ATR p0 +0.581×ATR p36
4h ↓ down late 18b — 5.676×ATR p87 -1.617×ATR p76
1h ↓ down late 7b — 4.424×ATR p89 -1.765×ATR p86
15m ↑ up mid 6b — 0.995×ATR p0 -1.301×ATR p67

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 4.31932183
  2. atr: 0.08410728
  3. expires_at: 2026-10-01T00:15:06+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 74
  2. total: 77
  3. score: 0.2803
  4. confidence: 0.961

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
4.067 4.3193 3.7179
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 4.067
  • Stop Loss: 4.3193
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 4.3193 - 4.067 = 0.2523

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 4.067 - = 4.067

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.067 / 0.2523 = 16.1197

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
128.9464 100 31.7055 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.2523

Taille de position = 8 / 0.2523 = 31.71

Taille de position USD = 31.71 x 4.067 = 128.96

Donc, tu peux acheter 31.71 avec un stoploss a 4.3193

Avec un position size USD de 128.96$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 31.71 x 0.2523 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 31.71 x 4.067 = 128.96

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 128.96$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 31.71
  • Taille de position USD 128.96
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 128.96
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 16.1197

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 128.95 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
6.2 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-0.93 $ -0.72
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.5491 % 24.97 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
4.067 4.3193 3.7179
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 4.067
  • Stop Loss: 4.3193
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 4.3193 - 4.067 = 0.2523

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 4.067 - = 4.067

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.067 / 0.2523 = 16.1197

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -6.204% (0.2523)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.998% 0.2R -0.290% 0.1R 3.4× 12
2h +0.998% 0.2R -1.082% 0.2R 0.9× 24
3h ★ +0.998% 0.2R -1.549% 0.3R 0.6× 36
4h +0.998% 0.2R -1.549% 0.3R 0.6× 48
8h +0.998% 0.2R -1.706% 0.3R 0.6× 96
12h +0.998% 0.2R -5.436% 0.9R 0.2× 144

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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