Short Trade on XPL

Previous Trade Next Trade

30 Sep 2026 at 17:41:18 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1799.63 XPL at 0.0929$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08183 (11.95 %) & Stop Loss: 0.09738 (4.78 %)

XPL SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 17:41 → 23:40 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.09294$

Qty 1799.6333 XPL

Size 167.2561$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.08183 (+11.95%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 0.09738 (-4.78%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -4.78% / -7.99$ MAE -6.25% MFE +0.08% 0.0R expires 01 Oct 05:41

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168188)

#67 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 17:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1481

Quality Score

0.421

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

70 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

31.7M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 17:32

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#67 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

70 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.78 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#67 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

70 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.78 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	2.00×ATR
4h	near	-0.10×ATR
1d	clear	0.51×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 30/09 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 30/09 16:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

30/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

30/09 16:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4495

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 35.6%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	50.0%
1h	68.3%
4h	31.7%
24h	48.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	50.0%	+0.00%
4h	41.7%	-0.63%
24h	46.7%	-0.12%

Dispersion : 0.158

Universe : 60 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 17:31 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4974

Score SMA

0.6233

Rank

#65 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2195

Rank Norm SMA

0.4935

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6287	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.58% · r3d: -14.17% · ema21_slope: 1.0559% · dist_ema21: -0.266%
Force Relative	25%	0.3953	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.77% · rs_3d: -13.23% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume	20%	0.5490	rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: 0.721 · trend: 100.05%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6679	ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 41.2 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.192% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 17:00

Score brut

0.4214

Score SMA

0.5185

Rank

#67 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1481

Rank Norm SMA

0.3621

Calculé le

30/09/2026 17:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2703	r1h: 0.950% · r4h: -3.455% · r1d: -4.25% · r3d: -13.15% · ema21_slope: -0.1347% · dist_ema21: -3.024%
Force Relative	25%	0.3250	rs_1h: 0.859% · rs_4h: -2.650% · rs_1d: -4.34% · rs_3d: -12.15% · beta_24h: 1.442
Volume	20%	0.3413	rvol_20: 0.79× · zscore_50: -0.190 · trend: 30.47%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6052	ADX: 19.5 (weak) · Chop: 45.3 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.555% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.2868

Score SMA

0.4932

Rank

#75 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0132

Rank Norm SMA

0.2952

Calculé le

30/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1621	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -3.906% · r1d: -5.13% · r3d: -14.13% · ema21_slope: -0.4739% · dist_ema21: -7.642%
Force Relative	25%	0.2899	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.271% · rs_1d: -5.15% · rs_3d: -12.82% · beta_24h: 2.049
Volume	20%	0.4124	rvol_20: 1.36× · zscore_50: 0.221 · trend: -5.26%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4707	ADX: 24.9 (weak) · Chop: 67.5 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.1265	ATR%: 5.621% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.777% (0.0044)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.075%	0.0R	-1.965%	0.4R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.075%	0.0R	-2.197%	0.5R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.075%	0.0R	-2.902%	0.6R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.075%	0.0R	-5.884%	1.2R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.075%	0.0R	-6.255%	1.3R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.075%	0.0R	-6.255%	1.3R	0.0×	288

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.04

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 41%	early	—	near -0.2ATR	0.54	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.05	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	47%	noisy_chop 42%	late	near -0.1ATR	—	0.48	bull_high	+1.54%	-0.94	30/09 12:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	balanced	normal	bear_high_confirmed	57%	noisy_chop 43%	mid	—	—	0.44	range_medium	-0.14%	-0.43	30/09 16:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	grind	compression	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 42%	early	—	—	0.62	range_low	-0.05%	-0.23	30/09 17:15
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177653	↔ neutral	bull_high	60%	early 4b 0.0ATR	noisy_chop 41%	0.674	— near -0.2ATR	1.13	below_value	-6.68 ATR	—	#97294	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:29
4h 185921	↔ neutral	bear_high	47%	late 26b -1.6ATR	noisy_chop 42%	0.421	near -0.1ATR —	1.36	below_value	-8.09 ATR	—	#100919	30/09 12:00 upd 30/09 16:18
1h anchor 186305	↓ down	bear_high_confirmed	57%	mid 4b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.568	— —	0.79	below_value	-7.99 ATR	—	#101153	30/09 16:00 upd 30/09 17:11
15m 186460	↓ down	bear_high	61%	early 11b -0.3ATR	noisy_chop 42%	0.463	— —	0.17	below_value	-7.99 ATR	—	#101153	30/09 17:15 upd 30/09 17:33
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	4b	—	2.562×ATR	p8	-0.02×ATR	p2
4h	↓ down	late	26b	—	5.954×ATR	p87	-1.602×ATR	p86
1h	↓ down	mid	4b	—	1.654×ATR	p12	-1.165×ATR	p71
15m	↑ up	early	11b	—	2.615×ATR	p16	-0.295×ATR	p23

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.696
reason: down_bo width=2.72×ATR dur=55b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.09738435
tp_price: 0.08182563
atr:
score: 0.69597723398674
expires_at: 2026-10-01T09:41:10.559675
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.69597723398674

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.0453
obi_top10 : 0.0259
micro_price : 0.09315163
spread_pct : 0.053688
mid_price : 0.093155
bid_wall_price : 0.0929
bid_wall_size : 1871204.4
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.094
ask_wall_size : 2434984
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.0503
obi_top5_std : 0.0046
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7099
aggregation_tick : 0.0001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.10023
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.094087
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.0971585
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790607600
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790802000
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.72
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
55
```
balance_zone_quality: loose
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.696
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790787600
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.094087
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.7818
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
4
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.5083
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
11
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
5
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.00225849

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.7818

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.5083

Signaux confirmants (3)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	17:41	0.09293900	-0.001%
2	17:51	0.09293900	-0.001%
3	18:03	0.09293900	-0.001%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7099ms Confidence avant OB : 70% → 70%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.045

avg 0.050 ± 0.005

OBI Top 10 0.026

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0932

Micro Price

0.0932

Spread

0.0537%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.0929

Size

1,871,204.40

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.0940

Size

2,434,984.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09294	0.09738	0.08183	2.5	0.07514

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09294
Stop Loss: 0.09738
Take Profit: 0.08183

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.09738 - 0.09294 = 0.00444
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09294 - 0.08183 = 0.01111
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01111 / 0.00444 = 2.5023

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
167.2561	100	1799.6333	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00444

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00444 = 1801.8

Taille de position USD = 1801.8 x 0.09294 = 167.46

Donc, tu peux acheter 1801.8 avec un stoploss a 0.09738

Avec un position size USD de 167.46$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1801.8 x 0.00444 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1801.8 x 0.01111 = 20.02

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$

Résumé

Taille de position 1801.8
Taille de position USD 167.46
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20.02
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5023

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
11.95 %	19.99 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.78 %	7.99 $

PNL	PNL %
-7.99 $	-4.78

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-4.8408 %	101.33 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09294	0.09738	0.08183	2.5	0.07514

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09294
Stop Loss: 0.09738
Take Profit: 0.08183

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.09738 - 0.09294 = 0.00444
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09294 - 0.08183 = 0.01111
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01111 / 0.00444 = 2.5023

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.777% (0.0044)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.075%	0.0R	-1.965%	0.4R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.075%	0.0R	-2.197%	0.5R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.075%	0.0R	-2.902%	0.6R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.075%	0.0R	-5.884%	1.2R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.075%	0.0R	-6.255%	1.3R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.075%	0.0R	-6.255%	1.3R	0.0×	288

computed 2 weeks ago

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