Short Trade on CHIP

Previous Trade Next Trade

30 Sep 2026 at 18:41:03 hyperliquid

Short Trade on CHIP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 6739.62 CHIP at 0.0434$ per unit. Take profit: 0.04039 (6.85 %) & Stop Loss: 0.04455 (2.74 %)

CHIP SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 18:41 → 06:40 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.04336$

Qty 6739.6231 CHIP

Size 292.2368$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.04039 (+6.85%)

TP $ 20.02$

SL 0.04455 (-2.74%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR 2.5

Status win PnL +1.98% / +5.78$ MAE -2.19% MFE +3.05% 1.1R expires 01 Oct 06:40 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168280)

#56 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 18:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3689

Quality Score

0.425

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

81 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

2.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 18:32

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#56 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

81 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.74 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#56 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

81 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.74 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.91×ATR
4h	near	-0.54×ATR
1d	clear	2.55×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 30/09 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 17:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

30/09 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 17:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4499

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 28.9%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	78.3%
1h	8.3%
4h	30.0%
24h	41.7%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	78.3%	+0.28%
4h	38.3%	-0.68%
24h	36.7%	-0.32%

Dispersion : 0.141

Universe : 60 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 18:31 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4190

Score SMA

0.4981

Rank

#79 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0488

Rank Norm SMA

0.1728

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6665	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.21% · r3d: -9.74% · ema21_slope: 0.4223% · dist_ema21: -1.928%
Force Relative	25%	0.4332	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.02% · rs_3d: -8.80% · beta_24h: 2.692
Volume	20%	0.1566	rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -0.907 · trend: -37.18%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5294	ADX: 24.9 (weak) · Chop: 60.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.961% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 18:00

Score brut

0.4254

Score SMA

0.5253

Rank

#56 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3689

Rank Norm SMA

0.4206

Calculé le

30/09/2026 18:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3407	r1h: 0.180% · r4h: -2.612% · r1d: -3.84% · r3d: -8.16% · ema21_slope: -0.0229% · dist_ema21: -2.810%
Force Relative	25%	0.3440	rs_1h: 0.078% · rs_4h: -2.299% · rs_1d: -4.18% · rs_3d: -7.10% · beta_24h: 1.741
Volume	20%	0.2395	rvol_20: 0.19× · zscore_50: -0.618 · trend: 10.48%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5952	ADX: 14.4 (weak) · Chop: 41.2 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.095% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.3369

Score SMA

0.4688

Rank

#72 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2196

Rank Norm SMA

0.2162

Calculé le

30/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2518	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -3.487% · r1d: -2.32% · r3d: -8.30% · ema21_slope: -0.2616% · dist_ema21: -3.866%
Force Relative	25%	0.3795	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.853% · rs_1d: -2.35% · rs_3d: -6.98% · beta_24h: 2.771
Volume	20%	0.2874	rvol_20: 0.84× · zscore_50: -0.440 · trend: -3.20%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3758	ADX: 12.9 (weak) · Chop: 66.9 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.5266	ATR%: 4.420% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.745% (0.0012)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.540%	0.2R	-0.233%	0.1R	2.3×	12
2h	+0.973%	0.4R	-0.309%	0.1R	3.2×	24
4h	+1.326%	0.5R	-0.309%	0.1R	4.3×	48
8h	+1.326%	0.5R	-1.864%	0.7R	0.7×	96
12h ★	+3.054%	1.1R	-2.189%	0.8R	1.4×	144
24h	+5.217%	1.9R	-2.189%	0.8R	2.4×	288

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 3.25

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	50%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	—	bull_high	+12.90%	-0.98	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	49%	noisy_chop 39%	early	near -0.5ATR	—	0.36	bull_high	+1.54%	-0.82	30/09 12:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	strong	balanced	expansion	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 41%	mid	near -0.9ATR	—	0.35	range_medium	-0.04%	-0.37	30/09 17:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 39%	early	—	—	0.62	range_low	+0.08%	-0.18	30/09 18:15
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177691	↔ neutral	bull_high	50%	early 13b -0.2ATR	noisy_chop 37%	0.656	— —	0.45	below_value	-5.56 ATR	—	#97310	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:31
4h 185967	↔ neutral	bear_high	49%	early 10b -0.9ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.658	near -0.5ATR —	0.84	below_value	-6.01 ATR	—	#100934	30/09 12:00 upd 30/09 16:20
1h anchor 186712	↓ down	bear_high	55%	mid 5b -1.3ATR	noisy_chop 41%	0.506	near -0.9ATR —	0.19	below_value	-6.66 ATR	—	#101324	30/09 17:00 upd 30/09 18:13
15m 186866	↓ down	bear_high	61%	early 9b -0.3ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.373	— —	0.23	below_value	-6.66 ATR	—	#101324	30/09 18:15 upd 30/09 18:33
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	13b	—	1.562×ATR	p0	-0.157×ATR	p5
4h	↑ up	early	10b	—	0.582×ATR	p0	-0.948×ATR	p53
1h	↓ down	mid	5b	—	2.707×ATR	p59	-1.268×ATR	p68
15m	↑ up	early	9b	—	2.015×ATR	p15	-0.332×ATR	p18

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.8054
reason: down_bo width=2.00×ATR dur=36b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.04454801
tp_price: 0.04039348
atr:
score: 0.80541257155645
expires_at: 2026-10-01T10:40:55.135304
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.80541257155645

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.0334
obi_top10 : -0.0223
micro_price : 0.04336286
spread_pct : 0.138536
mid_price : 0.04334
bid_wall_price : 0.0432
bid_wall_size : 496340.2
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.044
ask_wall_size : 808547
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : -0.0089
obi_top5_std : 0.0357
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7055
aggregation_tick : 0.0001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.0453555
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.0435615
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.0444585
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790679600
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790805600
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.0043
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
36
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8054
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790791200
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.0435615
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.75
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
4
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.224
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
2
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
6
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
8
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.0008951

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.75

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.224

Signaux confirmants (9)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	18:41	0.04336100	+0.002%
2	18:51	0.04336100	+0.002%
3	19:02	0.04336100	+0.002%
4	19:14	0.04321900	-0.325%
5	19:25	0.04321900	-0.325%
6	19:35	0.04321900	-0.325%
7	19:46	0.04331900	-0.095%
8	19:56	0.04331900	-0.095%
9	20:10	0.04331900	-0.095%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7055ms Confidence avant OB : 81% → 81%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.033

avg -0.009 ± 0.036

OBI Top 10 -0.022

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0433

Micro Price

0.0434

Spread

0.1385%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.0432

Size

496,340.20

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.0440

Size

808,547.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.04336	0.04455	0.04039	2.5	0.04517

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.04336
Stop Loss: 0.04455
Take Profit: 0.04039

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.04455 - 0.04336 = 0.00119
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.04336 - 0.04039 = 0.00297
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00297 / 0.00119 = 2.4958

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
292.2368	100	6739.6231	3.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00119

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00119 = 6722.69

Taille de position USD = 6722.69 x 0.04336 = 291.5

Donc, tu peux acheter 6722.69 avec un stoploss a 0.04455

Avec un position size USD de 291.5$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 6722.69 x 0.00119 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 6722.69 x 0.00297 = 19.97

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$

Résumé

Taille de position 6722.69
Taille de position USD 291.5
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 19.97
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4958

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
6.85 %	20.02 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.74 %	8.02 $

PNL	PNL %
5.78 $	1.98

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.1887 %	79.75 %	21

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.04336	0.04455	0.04039	2.5	0.04517

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.04336
Stop Loss: 0.04455
Take Profit: 0.04039

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.04455 - 0.04336 = 0.00119
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.04336 - 0.04039 = 0.00297
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00297 / 0.00119 = 2.4958

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.745% (0.0012)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.540%	0.2R	-0.233%	0.1R	2.3×	12
2h	+0.973%	0.4R	-0.309%	0.1R	3.2×	24
4h	+1.326%	0.5R	-0.309%	0.1R	4.3×	48
8h	+1.326%	0.5R	-1.864%	0.7R	0.7×	96
12h ★	+3.054%	1.1R	-2.189%	0.8R	1.4×	144
24h	+5.217%	1.9R	-2.189%	0.8R	2.4×	288

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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