Long Trade on AERO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 520.31 AERO at 0.823$ per unit. Take profit: 0.8619 (4.66 %) & Stop Loss: 0.8081 (1.87 %)
30 Sep 2026 at 20:23:17
hyperliquid
AERO
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
30 Sep 2026 20:23
→ 04:05
· 7 hours
Position
Entry 0.8235$
Qty 520.3066 AERO
Size 428.4621$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.8619 (+4.66%)
TP $ 19.98$
SL 0.8081 (-1.87%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.49
Status
loss
PnL
-1.87%
/ -8.01$
MAE -3.32%
MFE +3.38%
1.8R
expires
01 Oct 08:23
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 168428)
#22 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 20:00
score du 30/09/2026 20:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4548
Quality Score
0.524
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 20:18
30/09 20:18
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 168428)
#22 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 20:00
score du 30/09/2026 20:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4548
Quality Score
0.524
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#22 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#22 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.09×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.54×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.86×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
4.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 20:18
30/09 20:18
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/09 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 30/09 19:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4506
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
65.0%
Macro
broad_risk_on
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 18.0% |
| 1h | 24.6% |
| 4h | 70.5% |
| 24h | 60.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 50.8% | -0.19% |
| 4h | 80.3% | +0.44% |
| 24h | 57.4% | +0.44% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.107
Universe :
61
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
30/09 20:16
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6568
Score SMA
0.7271
Rank
#23
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7067
Rank Norm SMA
0.7763
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.8669 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.67% · r3d: -2.07% · ema21_slope: 2.4208% · dist_ema21: 16.995% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.7620 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.69% · rs_3d: -1.09% · beta_24h: 1.122 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3681 | rvol_20: 0.69× · zscore_50: -0.047 · trend: 55.90% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8844 | ADX: 46.1 (trend) · Chop: 26.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.829% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5243
Score SMA
0.5702
Rank
#22
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4548
Rank Norm SMA
0.5511
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6184 | r1h: 1.144% · r4h: 2.346% · r1d: 1.67% · r3d: -2.07% · ema21_slope: 0.0287% · dist_ema21: 1.383% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6119 | rs_1h: 1.235% · rs_4h: 2.322% · rs_1d: 1.69% · rs_3d: -1.09% · beta_24h: 1.749 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1503 | rvol_20: 0.51× · zscore_50: -0.789 · trend: -49.05% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4765 | ADX: 14.7 (weak) · Chop: 56.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.601% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5157
Score SMA
0.6220
Rank
#28
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6164
Rank Norm SMA
0.6682
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6875 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 2.346% · r1d: 1.67% · r3d: -2.07% · ema21_slope: 0.0130% · dist_ema21: 1.237% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6854 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 2.322% · rs_1d: 1.69% · rs_3d: -1.09% · beta_24h: 2.457 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1556 | rvol_20: 0.37× · zscore_50: -0.768 · trend: -44.91% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3684 | ADX: 16.8 (weak) · Chop: 71.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7668 | ATR%: 3.700% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.870%
(0.0154)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.194% | 0.6R | -0.370% | 0.2R | 3.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.194% | 0.6R | -1.594% | 0.9R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.194% | 0.6R | -1.755% | 0.9R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.381% | 1.8R | -2.690% | 1.4R | 1.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.381% | 1.8R | -3.321% | 1.8R | 1.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.381% | 1.8R | -6.441% | 3.4R | 0.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +3.381% | 1.8R | -6.441% | 3.4R | 0.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +3.381% | 1.8R | -7.305% | 3.9R | 0.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.638% | 2.5R | -7.305% | 3.9R | 0.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 346 min
MAE in 1161 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 2 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.83
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
72%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | 0.65 | bull_high | +12.90% | +1.00 | 28/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.53 | bull_high | +1.53% | +0.06 | 30/09 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.50 | range_medium | -0.21% | +0.22 | 30/09 19:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | near -2.3ATR | 0.62 | range_low | -0.17% | +0.27 | 30/09 19:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#177676
|
↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.730 | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
72%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid 3b 1.6ATR | — | — | 1.35 | 96% | ↑ +0.81 | above_value | -0.83 | — | #97305 | 0.65 | bull_high | +12.90% | +1.00 |
28/09 20:00
upd 29/09 20:30
|
|
4h
#187634
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.551 | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 10b 0.3ATR | — | — | 0.37 | 49% | ↓ -0.43 | above_value | -0.50 | — | #101628 | 0.53 | bull_high | +1.53% | +0.06 |
30/09 16:00
upd 30/09 20:22
|
|
1h
anchor #187633
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.513 | compression | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 5b 0.8ATR | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.51 | 21% | ↔ -0.05 | above_value | -0.50 | — | #101628 | 0.50 | range_medium | -0.21% | +0.22 |
30/09 19:00
upd 30/09 20:22
|
|
15m
#187405
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.573 | compression | bull_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late 20b 2.0ATR | — | near -2.3ATR | 0.70 | 25% | ↑ +0.35 | above_value | -0.93 | — | #101474 | 0.62 | range_low | -0.17% | +0.27 |
30/09 19:45
upd 30/09 20:04
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 1.841×ATR | p0 | +1.569×ATR | p73 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 1.146×ATR | p0 | +0.329×ATR | p18 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 5b | — | 2.016×ATR | p27 | +0.792×ATR | p51 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 20b | — | 5.12×ATR | p89 | +2.033×ATR | p90 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.9396
- reason: up_bo width=2.01×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.80810445
- tp_price: 0.86191888
- atr:
- score: 0.93960240008675
- expires_at: 2026-10-01T12:23:09.812988
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.93960240008675
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0097
- obi_top10 : 0.015
- micro_price : 0.82342176
- spread_pct : 0.060753
- mid_price : 0.82325
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.83
- ask_wall_size : 53286
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0107
- obi_top5_std : 0.0012
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7065
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.8219
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.79681
- balance_zone_mid:
0.809355
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790647200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790812800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.0063
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
47
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9396
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790809200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.8219
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6383
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1263
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
12
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.01250553 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
47
inside_close_ratio
0.6383
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1263
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20:23 | 0.82348000 | -0.002% |
| 2 | 20:34 | 0.82348000 | -0.002% |
| 3 | 20:45 | 0.82197000 | -0.186% |
| 4 | 20:56 | 0.82197000 | -0.186% |
| 5 | 21:08 | 0.82197000 | -0.186% |
| 6 | 21:18 | 0.82919000 | +0.691% |
| 7 | 21:28 | 0.82919000 | +0.691% |
| 8 | 01:16 | 0.83438000 | +1.321% |
| 9 | 01:27 | 0.83438000 | +1.321% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7065ms
Confidence avant OB :
94%
→
94%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.010
avg -0.011
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.015
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.8233
Micro Price
0.8234
Spread
0.0608%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.8300
Size
53,286.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8235 | 0.8081 | 0.8619 | 2.49 | 0.7823 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.8235
- Stop Loss: 0.8081
- Take Profit: 0.8619
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.8081 - 0.8235 = -0.0154
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.8235 - 0.8619 = -0.0384
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0384 / -0.0154 = 2.4935
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 428.4621 | 100 | 520.3066 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.0154
Taille de position = 8 / -0.0154 = -519.48
Taille de position USD = -519.48 x 0.8235 = -427.79
Donc, tu peux acheter -519.48 avec un stoploss a 0.8081
Avec un position size USD de -427.79$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -519.48 x -0.0154 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -519.48 x -0.0384 = 19.95
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.95$
Résumé
- Taille de position -519.48
- Taille de position USD -427.79
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.95
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4935
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.66 % | 19.98 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.87 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -1.87 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.1226 % | 113.5 % | 11 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8235 | 0.8081 | 0.8619 | 2.49 | 0.7823 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.8235
- Stop Loss: 0.8081
- Take Profit: 0.8619
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.8081 - 0.8235 = -0.0154
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.8235 - 0.8619 = -0.0384
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0384 / -0.0154 = 2.4935
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.870%
(0.0154)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.194% | 0.6R | -0.370% | 0.2R | 3.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.194% | 0.6R | -1.594% | 0.9R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.194% | 0.6R | -1.755% | 0.9R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.381% | 1.8R | -2.690% | 1.4R | 1.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.381% | 1.8R | -3.321% | 1.8R | 1.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.381% | 1.8R | -6.441% | 3.4R | 0.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +3.381% | 1.8R | -6.441% | 3.4R | 0.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +3.381% | 1.8R | -7.305% | 3.9R | 0.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.638% | 2.5R | -7.305% | 3.9R | 0.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 346 min
MAE in 1161 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 2 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.