Short Trade on AR

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30 Sep 2026 at 22:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on AR (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 43.39 AR at 4.039$ per unit. Take profit: 3.9378 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.2232 (4.57 %)

AR SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 22:15 → 04:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 4.0388$

Qty 43.3886 AR

Size 175.2377$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 3.9378 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.38$

SL 4.2232 (-4.57%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.55

Status loss PnL -2.62% / -4.59$ MAE -4.13% MFE +0.25% 0.1R expires 01 Oct 04:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168703)

#73 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1934

Quality Score

0.423

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

2.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 22:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 168703)

#73 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1934

Quality Score

0.423

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#73 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.57 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#73 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.57 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	0.98×ATR
4h	near	-2.90×ATR
1d	clear	2.57×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

2.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 22:01

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 30/09 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 21:00 Score : -4 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

30/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 21:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4513

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	range 0.25	range 0
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	compression

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 70.4%

Macro broad_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	45.2%
1h	64.5%
4h	79.0%
24h	54.8%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	33.9%	-0.01%
4h	80.7%	+0.80%
24h	54.8%	+0.42%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.128

Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 22:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5421

Score SMA

0.6368

Rank

#50 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3467

Rank Norm SMA

0.5431

Calculé le

30/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6494	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.64% · r3d: -12.75% · ema21_slope: 2.9697% · dist_ema21: 5.835%
Force Relative	25%	0.4701	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.63% · rs_3d: -11.77% · beta_24h: 2.348
Volume	20%	0.4697	rvol_20: 1.06× · zscore_50: 0.700 · trend: 50.36%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.9056	ADX: 48.7 (trend) · Chop: 28.8 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 11.210% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 22:00

Score brut

0.4233

Score SMA

0.5144

Rank

#73 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1934

Rank Norm SMA

0.3853

Calculé le

30/09/2026 22:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3272	r1h: -1.333% · r4h: -0.114% · r1d: -5.42% · r3d: -7.79% · ema21_slope: -0.2173% · dist_ema21: -2.936%
Force Relative	25%	0.3149	rs_1h: -1.351% · rs_4h: 0.181% · rs_1d: -5.53% · rs_3d: -7.61% · beta_24h: 1.659
Volume	20%	0.2007	rvol_20: 0.39× · zscore_50: -0.131 · trend: -42.89%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6604	ADX: 19.7 (weak) · Chop: 38.7 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.948% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3477

Score SMA

0.4878

Rank

#75 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1251

Rank Norm SMA

0.2605

Calculé le

30/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3502	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.110% · r1d: -2.64% · r3d: -12.75% · ema21_slope: -0.3841% · dist_ema21: -4.636%
Force Relative	25%	0.3677	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.086% · rs_1d: -2.63% · rs_3d: -11.77% · beta_24h: 3.098
Volume	20%	0.2461	rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -0.675 · trend: 18.34%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3367	ADX: 12.5 (weak) · Chop: 71.2 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.5099	ATR%: 4.470% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.566% (0.1844)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.248%	0.1R	-1.790%	0.4R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.248%	0.1R	-2.417%	0.5R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.248%	0.1R	-3.642%	0.8R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.248%	0.1R	-4.130%	0.9R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.248%	0.1R	-13.209%	2.9R	0.0×	96
12h	+0.248%	0.1R	-13.209%	2.9R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.248%	0.1R	-13.209%	2.9R	0.0×	288
48h	+0.248%	0.1R	-13.209%	2.9R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.248%	0.1R	-18.355%	4.0R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 9 min MAE in 454 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.11

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 45%	early	—	—	0.55	bull_high	+12.59%	+1.00	29/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	49%	noisy_chop 41%	late	near -2.9ATR	—	0.32	bull_high	+1.53%	-0.93	30/09 16:00
1h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high	52%	noisy_chop 42%	late	—	—	0.21	range_medium	-0.32%	-0.55	30/09 21:00
15m	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 42%	late	near -1.1ATR	—	0.58	range_low	-0.27%	+0.04	30/09 21:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #187671	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.822	volatile_reversal	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 45%	early 10b 0.4ATR	—	—	1.06	94%	↑ +0.83	below_value	-5.80	—	#101597	0.55	bull_high	+12.59%	+1.00	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 20:23
4h #187498	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.611	compression	bull_high	49%	noisy_chop 41%	late 19b -1.3ATR	near -2.9ATR	—	0.29	54%	↓ -0.54	below_value	-5.80	—	#101597	0.32	bull_high	+1.53%	-0.93	30/09 16:00 upd 30/09 20:15
1h anchor #188440	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.551	expansion	bear_high	52%	noisy_chop 42%	late 12b -1.2ATR	—	—	0.39	49%	↑ +0.16	below_value	-7.05	—	#101983	0.21	range_medium	-0.32%	-0.55	30/09 21:00 upd 30/09 22:11
15m #188365	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	0.391	compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 42%	late 9b -1.8ATR	near -1.1ATR	—	1.87	74%	↑ +0.25	below_value	-6.24	—	#101828	0.58	range_low	-0.27%	+0.04	30/09 21:45 upd 30/09 22:02
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	10b	—	2.541×ATR	p0	+0.352×ATR	p24
4h	↓ down	late	19b	—	5.621×ATR	p87	-1.265×ATR	p59
1h	↓ down	late	12b	—	5.14×ATR	p94	-1.243×ATR	p71
15m	↓ down	late	9b	—	2.779×ATR	p56	-1.82×ATR	p83

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 4.22318043
tp_price: 3.93783
atr: 0.07375217
expires_at: 2026-10-01T08:15:06+00:00

Details

rank: 76
total: 77
score: 0.3433
delta_2h: -0.0776
extension_atr: -1.48
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1917
confidence: 0.987

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
4.0388	4.2232	3.9378	0.55	3.534

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 4.0388
Stop Loss: 4.2232
Take Profit: 3.9378

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.2232 - 4.0388 = 0.1844
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 4.0388 - 3.9378 = 0.101
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.101 / 0.1844 = 0.5477

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
175.2377	100	43.3886	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.1844

Taille de position = 8 / 0.1844 = 43.38

Taille de position USD = 43.38 x 4.0388 = 175.2

Donc, tu peux acheter 43.38 avec un stoploss a 4.2232

Avec un position size USD de 175.2$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 43.38 x 0.1844 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 43.38 x 0.101 = 4.38

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.38$

Résumé

Taille de position 43.38
Taille de position USD 175.2
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 4.38
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5477

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	4.38 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.57 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-4.59 $	-2.62

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.6422 %	79.77 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
4.0388	4.2232	3.9378	0.55	3.534

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 4.0388
Stop Loss: 4.2232
Take Profit: 3.9378

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.2232 - 4.0388 = 0.1844
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 4.0388 - 3.9378 = 0.101
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.101 / 0.1844 = 0.5477

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.566% (0.1844)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.248%	0.1R	-1.790%	0.4R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.248%	0.1R	-2.417%	0.5R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.248%	0.1R	-3.642%	0.8R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.248%	0.1R	-4.130%	0.9R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.248%	0.1R	-13.209%	2.9R	0.0×	96
12h	+0.248%	0.1R	-13.209%	2.9R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.248%	0.1R	-13.209%	2.9R	0.0×	288
48h	+0.248%	0.1R	-13.209%	2.9R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.248%	0.1R	-18.355%	4.0R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 9 min MAE in 454 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 days ago

Commentaires

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