01 Oct 2026 at 00:14:54 hyperliquid

Long Trade on ADA (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1450.92 ADA at 0.251$ per unit. Take profit: 0.2647 (5.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2454 (2.19 %)

ADA LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 00:14 → 04:35 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 0.2509$

Qty 1450.9208 ADA

Size 364.1086$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 0.2647 (+5.5%)

TP $ 20.02$

SL 0.2454 (-2.19%)

SL $ 7.98$

RR 2.51

Status loss PnL -2.19% / -7.98$ MAE -3.27% MFE +1.38% 0.6R expires 01 Oct 12:14

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168844)
#33 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 00:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5645

Quality Score
0.489
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
10.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 00:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 168844)
#33 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 00:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5645

Quality Score
0.489
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#33 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.19 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#33 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.19 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.85×ATR
4h near -0.51×ATR
1d clear 1.42×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
10.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 00:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

30/09 23:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4521
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

compression

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 69.9%
Macro broad_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 50.8%
1h 57.4%
4h 68.9%
24h 75.4%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 37.7% +0.00%
4h 72.1% +0.31%
24h 72.1% +0.93%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.143
Universe : 61 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 01/10 00:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5779
Score SMA
0.5965
Rank
#41 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4667
Rank Norm SMA
0.4047
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7628 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.00% · r3d: -3.33% · ema21_slope: 1.1237% · dist_ema21: 5.283%
Force Relative 25% 0.5968 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.02% · rs_3d: -2.35% · beta_24h: 1.515
Volume 20% 0.4216 rvol_20: 1.14× · zscore_50: 0.312 · trend: 23.80%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7702 ADX: 34.4 (trend) · Chop: 40.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 6.310% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4889
Score SMA
0.5329
Rank
#33 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5645
Rank Norm SMA
0.4922
Calculé le
01/10/2026 00:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5954 r1h: 0.730% · r4h: 1.784% · r1d: 3.10% · r3d: 0.42% · ema21_slope: 0.0055% · dist_ema21: 1.634%
Force Relative 25% 0.5821 rs_1h: 0.412% · rs_4h: 1.633% · rs_1d: 2.54% · rs_3d: -0.10% · beta_24h: 1.675
Volume 20% 0.1580 rvol_20: 0.09× · zscore_50: -0.630 · trend: -66.94%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4388 ADX: 13.9 (weak) · Chop: 60.1 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.408% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.5110
Score SMA
0.5720
Rank
#34 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5362
Rank Norm SMA
0.5641
Calculé le
01/10/2026 00:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6266 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.784% · r1d: 3.10% · r3d: 0.42% · ema21_slope: -0.0562% · dist_ema21: 1.469%
Force Relative 25% 0.5988 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.633% · rs_1d: 2.54% · rs_3d: -0.10% · beta_24h: 2.370
Volume 20% 0.1813 rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -0.774 · trend: -25.35%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4031 ADX: 15.6 (weak) · Chop: 66.2 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.942% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.192% (0.0055)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.383% 0.6R -0.427% 0.2R 3.2× 12
2h +1.383% 0.6R -0.427% 0.2R 3.2× 24
4h +1.383% 0.6R -1.706% 0.8R 0.8× 48
8h +1.383% 0.6R -3.117% 1.4R 0.4× 96
12h ★ +1.383% 0.6R -3.272% 1.5R 0.4× 144
24h +1.383% 0.6R -3.272% 1.5R 0.4× 288
36h +3.193% 1.5R -3.272% 1.5R 1.0× 432
48h +3.193% 1.5R -5.632% 2.6R 0.6× 576
72h +3.193% 1.5R -5.632% 2.6R 0.6× 864
⏱ MFE in 1935 min MAE in 655 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 3 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 3.02
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up range range moderate grind expansion bull_high
65%
noisy_chop 40% early — — 0.79 bull_high +12.59% +0.76 29/09 20:00
4h ↑ up range range moderate grind expansion bull_high
58%
noisy_chop 35% early — near -0.5ATR 0.69 bull_high +1.65% -0.05 30/09 20:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong balanced normal bull_high
61%
noisy_chop 43% mid — near -0.8ATR 0.68 range_medium -0.04% +0.21 30/09 23:00
15m ↑ up range range moderate grind normal bull_medium
57%
noisy_chop 42% late — — 0.80 range_low +0.05% +0.12 30/09 23:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187616
↑ up range range moderate grind 0.619 expansion bull_high
65%
noisy_chop 40% early 14b 0.7ATR — — 1.14 87% ↑ +0.47 above_value -0.34 — #101584 0.79 bull_high +12.59% +0.76
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:21
4h
#189242
↑ up range range moderate grind 0.586 expansion bull_high
58%
noisy_chop 35% early 3b 0.5ATR — near -0.5ATR 0.29 21% ↔ -0.05 value +0.88 — #102282 0.69 bull_high +1.65% -0.05
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 00:14
1h anchor
#189241
↔ neutral range range strong balanced 0.543 normal bull_high
61%
noisy_chop 43% mid 8b 1.1ATR — near -0.8ATR 0.09 4% ↓ -0.85 value +0.88 — #102282 0.68 range_medium -0.04% +0.21
30/09 23:00
upd 01/10 00:14
15m
#189137
↑ up range range moderate grind 0.573 normal bull_medium
57%
noisy_chop 42% late 6b 2.2ATR — — 0.48 20% ↓ -0.18 above_value +0.36 — #102126 0.80 range_low +0.05% +0.12
30/09 23:45
upd 01/10 00:02
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 14b — 3.628×ATR p48 +0.71×ATR p43
4h ↓ down early 3b — 0.796×ATR p0 +0.485×ATR p28
1h ↑ up mid 8b — 2.735×ATR p59 +1.123×ATR p69
15m ↑ up late 6b — 3.418×ATR p76 +2.191×ATR p89

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.9033
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.63×ATR dur=59b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.24543626
  5. tp_price: 0.26473434
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.90331868125772
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T16:14:46.045620
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.90331868125772
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.0522
  14. obi_top10 : -0.0463
  15. micro_price : 0.25020559
  16. spread_pct : 0.039968
  17. mid_price : 0.25025
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.249
  19. bid_wall_size : 5002115
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.251
  22. ask_wall_size : 5136512
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.0517
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0012
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7041
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.25016
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.24138
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.24577
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790618400
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790827200
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.6308
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    59
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.9033
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790823600
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.25016
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.7797
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.2367
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    7
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    9
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00333737
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
59
inside_close_ratio
0.7797
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2367

Signaux confirmants (18)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 00:14 0.25095000 +0.02%
2 00:26 0.25095000 +0.02%
3 00:37 0.25154000 +0.255%
4 00:48 0.25154000 +0.255%
5 00:58 0.25154000 +0.255%
6 01:10 0.25314000 +0.893%
7 01:21 0.25314000 +0.893%
8 01:31 0.25314000 +0.893%
9 01:42 0.25381000 +1.16%
10 01:53 0.25381000 +1.16%
11 02:05 0.25381000 +1.16%
12 02:18 0.25330000 +0.957%
13 02:29 0.25330000 +0.957%
14 02:40 0.25307000 +0.865%
15 02:51 0.25307000 +0.865%
16 03:02 0.25307000 +0.865%
17 03:14 0.25389000 +1.192%
18 03:25 0.25389000 +1.192%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7041ms Confidence avant OB : 90% → 90%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.052
avg 0.052 ± 0.001
OBI Top 10 -0.046

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.2503
Micro Price
0.2502
Spread
0.0400%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.2490
Size
5,002,115.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.2510
Size
5,136,512.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2509 0.2454 0.2647 2.51 0.2062
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2509
  • Stop Loss: 0.2454
  • Take Profit: 0.2647

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2454 - 0.2509 = -0.0055

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2509 - 0.2647 = -0.0138

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0138 / -0.0055 = 2.5091

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
364.1086 100 1450.9208 4.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.0055

Taille de position = 8 / -0.0055 = -1454.55

Taille de position USD = -1454.55 x 0.2509 = -364.95

Donc, tu peux acheter -1454.55 avec un stoploss a 0.2454

Avec un position size USD de -364.95$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -1454.55 x -0.0055 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -1454.55 x -0.0138 = 20.07

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.07$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -1454.55
  • Taille de position USD -364.95
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.07
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5091

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
5.5 % 20.02 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.19 % 7.98 $
PNL PNL %
-7.98 $ -2.19
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.1921 % 100 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2509 0.2454 0.2647 2.51 0.2062
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2509
  • Stop Loss: 0.2454
  • Take Profit: 0.2647

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2454 - 0.2509 = -0.0055

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2509 - 0.2647 = -0.0138

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0138 / -0.0055 = 2.5091

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2647
            [entry_price] => 0.2509
            [stop_loss] => 0.24485
            [rr_ratio] => 2.28
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 10:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2647
            [entry_price] => 0.2509
            [stop_loss] => 0.2443
            [rr_ratio] => 2.09
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 10:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2647
            [entry_price] => 0.2509
            [stop_loss] => 0.24375
            [rr_ratio] => 1.93
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 10:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.192% (0.0055)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.383% 0.6R -0.427% 0.2R 3.2× 12
2h +1.383% 0.6R -0.427% 0.2R 3.2× 24
4h +1.383% 0.6R -1.706% 0.8R 0.8× 48
8h +1.383% 0.6R -3.117% 1.4R 0.4× 96
12h ★ +1.383% 0.6R -3.272% 1.5R 0.4× 144
24h +1.383% 0.6R -3.272% 1.5R 0.4× 288
36h +3.193% 1.5R -3.272% 1.5R 1.0× 432
48h +3.193% 1.5R -5.632% 2.6R 0.6× 576
72h +3.193% 1.5R -5.632% 2.6R 0.6× 864
⏱ MFE in 1935 min MAE in 655 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 3 days ago

Commentaires

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