Short Trade on AR

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01 Oct 2026 at 01:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on AR (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 46.14 AR at 4.12$ per unit. Take profit: 4.0167 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.2931 (4.21 %)

AR SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 01:15 → 05:25 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 4.1197$

Qty 46.1395 AR

Size 190.0808$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 4.0167 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.75$

SL 4.2931 (-4.21%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.59

Status loss PnL -4.21% / -8$ MAE -10.99% MFE +1.39% 0.3R expires 01 Oct 07:15

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 169011)

#75 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 01:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1703

Quality Score

0.393

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

2.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 01:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169011)

#75 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 01:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1703

Quality Score

0.393

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#75 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.21 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#75 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.21 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.80×ATR
4h	near	-2.83×ATR
1d	clear	2.57×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	early	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

2.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 01:01

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 30/09 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 00:00 Score : -4 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

30/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 00:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4525

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	range 0.25	range 0
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	compression

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 71.1%

Macro broad_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	71.7%
1h	36.7%
4h	75.0%
24h	75.0%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	88.3%	+0.06%
4h	63.3%	+0.59%
24h	63.3%	+1.39%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.144

Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 01/10 01:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5421

Score SMA

0.6368

Rank

#50 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3467

Rank Norm SMA

0.5431

Calculé le

30/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6494	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.64% · r3d: -12.75% · ema21_slope: 2.9697% · dist_ema21: 5.835%
Force Relative	25%	0.4701	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.63% · rs_3d: -11.77% · beta_24h: 2.348
Volume	20%	0.4697	rvol_20: 1.06× · zscore_50: 0.700 · trend: 50.36%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.9056	ADX: 48.7 (trend) · Chop: 28.8 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 11.210% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 01:00

Score brut

0.3926

Score SMA

0.5148

Rank

#75 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1703

Rank Norm SMA

0.3851

Calculé le

01/10/2026 01:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3264	r1h: -0.931% · r4h: 0.029% · r1d: -4.05% · r3d: -7.60% · ema21_slope: -0.2650% · dist_ema21: -1.231%
Force Relative	25%	0.2943	rs_1h: -1.362% · rs_4h: -0.699% · rs_1d: -5.17% · rs_3d: -8.37% · beta_24h: 1.636
Volume	20%	0.1915	rvol_20: 0.39× · zscore_50: -0.128 · trend: -51.17%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5673	ADX: 18.7 (weak) · Chop: 49.1 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.801% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 00:00

Score brut

0.3787

Score SMA

0.4870

Rank

#74 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0264

Rank Norm SMA

0.2593

Calculé le

01/10/2026 00:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4444	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.679% · r1d: -3.60% · r3d: -5.93% · ema21_slope: -0.3597% · dist_ema21: -3.639%
Force Relative	25%	0.3844	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.529% · rs_1d: -4.15% · rs_3d: -6.45% · beta_24h: 3.112
Volume	20%	0.2130	rvol_20: 0.34× · zscore_50: -0.643 · trend: -8.12%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3351	ADX: 11.7 (weak) · Chop: 70.6 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.5637	ATR%: 4.309% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.209% (0.1734)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.607%	0.4R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.592%	0.1R	-1.607%	0.4R	0.4×	24
4h	+1.391%	0.3R	-4.088%	1.0R	0.3×	48
6h ★	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	72
8h	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	96
12h	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	144
24h	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	288
48h	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	576
72h	+1.391%	0.3R	-16.030%	3.8R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 129 min MAE in 274 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 4 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.48

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 45%	early	—	—	0.55	bull_high	+12.59%	+1.00	29/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	49%	noisy_chop 40%	late	near -2.8ATR	—	0.33	bull_high	+1.65%	-0.93	30/09 20:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	normal	bear_high	56%	noisy_chop 41%	early	—	—	0.21	range_medium	+0.39%	-0.45	01/10 00:00
15m	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	strong	balanced	normal	bear_medium	54%	noisy_chop 42%	early	—	near 0.0ATR	0.55	range_low	+0.45%	-0.08	01/10 00:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #187671	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.822	volatile_reversal	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 45%	early 10b 0.4ATR	—	—	1.06	94%	↑ +0.83	below_value	-5.80	—	#101597	0.55	bull_high	+12.59%	+1.00	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 20:23
4h #189268	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.611	compression	bull_high	49%	noisy_chop 40%	late 20b -1.0ATR	near -2.8ATR	—	0.34	59%	↓ -0.54	below_value	-6.11	—	#102295	0.33	bull_high	+1.65%	-0.93	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 00:15
1h anchor #189697	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.362	normal	bear_high	56%	noisy_chop 41%	early 9b -0.6ATR	—	—	0.39	48%	↔ +0.03	below_value	-6.76	—	#102529	0.21	range_medium	+0.39%	-0.45	01/10 00:00 upd 01/10 01:10
15m #189621	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	strong	balanced	0.636	normal	bear_medium	54%	noisy_chop 42%	early 4b 0.2ATR	—	near 0.0ATR	0.45	42%	↑ +0.30	below_value	-6.11	—	#102295	0.55	range_low	+0.45%	-0.08	01/10 00:45 upd 01/10 01:02
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	10b	—	2.541×ATR	p0	+0.352×ATR	p24
4h	↓ down	late	20b	—	5.635×ATR	p87	-1.015×ATR	p50
1h	↑ up	early	9b	—	0.988×ATR	p0	-0.646×ATR	p44
15m	↓ down	early	4b	—	1.479×ATR	p3	+0.151×ATR	p9

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 4.29308735
tp_price: 4.0167075
atr: 0.06935494
expires_at: 2026-10-01T11:15:06+00:00

Details

rank: 76
total: 77
score: 0.3239
delta_2h: -0.0523
extension_atr: -0.32
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.172
confidence: 0.987

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
4.1197	4.2931	4.0167	0.59	3.406

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 4.1197
Stop Loss: 4.2931
Take Profit: 4.0167

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.2931 - 4.1197 = 0.1734
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 4.1197 - 4.0167 = 0.103
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.103 / 0.1734 = 0.594

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
190.0808	100	46.1395	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.1734

Taille de position = 8 / 0.1734 = 46.14

Taille de position USD = 46.14 x 4.1197 = 190.08

Donc, tu peux acheter 46.14 avec un stoploss a 4.2931

Avec un position size USD de 190.08$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 46.14 x 0.1734 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 46.14 x 0.103 = 4.75

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.75$

Résumé

Taille de position 46.14
Taille de position USD 190.08
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 4.75
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.594

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	4.75 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.21 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-4.21

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-5.6218 %	133.57 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
4.1197	4.2931	4.0167	0.59	3.406

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 4.1197
Stop Loss: 4.2931
Take Profit: 4.0167

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.2931 - 4.1197 = 0.1734
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 4.1197 - 4.0167 = 0.103
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.103 / 0.1734 = 0.594

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 4.0167
            [entry_price] => 4.1197
            [stop_loss] => 4.31044
            [rr_ratio] => 0.54
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 09:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 4.0167
            [entry_price] => 4.1197
            [stop_loss] => 4.32778
            [rr_ratio] => 0.5
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 09:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 4.0167
            [entry_price] => 4.1197
            [stop_loss] => 4.34512
            [rr_ratio] => 0.46
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 09:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 4.0167
            [entry_price] => 4.1197
            [stop_loss] => 4.3798
            [rr_ratio] => 0.4
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 09:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.209% (0.1734)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.607%	0.4R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.592%	0.1R	-1.607%	0.4R	0.4×	24
4h	+1.391%	0.3R	-4.088%	1.0R	0.3×	48
6h ★	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	72
8h	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	96
12h	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	144
24h	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	288
48h	+1.391%	0.3R	-10.986%	2.6R	0.1×	576
72h	+1.391%	0.3R	-16.030%	3.8R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 129 min MAE in 274 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 4 days ago

Commentaires

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