Long Trade on XMR

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01 Oct 2026 at 01:17:06 hyperliquid

Long Trade on XMR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 0.91 XMR at 551.25$ per unit. Take profit: 573.2979 (4 %) & Stop Loss: 542.4308 (1.6 %)

XMR LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 01:17 → 06:00 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 551.25$

Qty 0.9071 XMR

Size 500.0474$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)

Risk Setup

TP 573.2979 (+4%)

TP $ 20$

SL 542.4308 (-1.6%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -1.60% / -8$ MAE -2.50% MFE +0.50% 0.3R expires 01 Oct 13:16

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 169044)

#35 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 01:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4156

Quality Score

0.487

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

94 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

9.0M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 01:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169044)

#35 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 01:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4156

Quality Score

0.487

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#35 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

94 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

1.60 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#35 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

94 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

1.60 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-1.05×ATR
4h	clear	2.49×ATR
1d	clear	1.42×ATR

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

9.0M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 01:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/09 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 01/10 00:00 Score : +6 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

01/10 00:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4526

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion +2
Operational	range 0.25	range 0
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	range

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 80.0%

Macro broad_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	80.0%
1h	85.0%
4h	86.7%
24h	71.7%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	48.3%	+0.16%
4h	70.0%	+1.30%
24h	51.7%	+1.23%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.171

Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 01/10 01:16 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4594

Score SMA

0.5082

Rank

#71 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0667

Rank Norm SMA

0.1262

Calculé le

30/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6058	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.57% · r3d: -0.33% · ema21_slope: 0.4667% · dist_ema21: 1.062%
Force Relative	25%	0.5007	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.59% · rs_3d: 0.65% · beta_24h: 1.085
Volume	20%	0.1607	rvol_20: 0.40× · zscore_50: -0.828 · trend: -38.06%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8022	ADX: 47.0 (trend) · Chop: 49.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 6.187% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 01:00

Score brut

0.4871

Score SMA

0.5035

Rank

#35 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4156

Rank Norm SMA

0.3904

Calculé le

01/10/2026 01:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5494	r1h: 0.129% · r4h: 0.672% · r1d: 1.29% · r3d: 2.41% · ema21_slope: 0.0341% · dist_ema21: 0.942%
Force Relative	25%	0.5021	rs_1h: -0.302% · rs_4h: -0.057% · rs_1d: 0.18% · rs_3d: 1.64% · beta_24h: 0.417
Volume	20%	0.2391	rvol_20: 0.80× · zscore_50: -0.287 · trend: -42.41%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4092	ADX: 12.9 (weak) · Chop: 62.7 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 0.743% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 00:00

Score brut

0.4662

Score SMA

0.4666

Rank

#60 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2918

Rank Norm SMA

0.2062

Calculé le

01/10/2026 00:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5283	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.717% · r1d: 1.65% · r3d: 1.54% · ema21_slope: -0.0329% · dist_ema21: 0.991%
Force Relative	25%	0.5309	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.566% · rs_1d: 1.10% · rs_3d: 1.01% · beta_24h: 0.871
Volume	20%	0.1462	rvol_20: 0.35× · zscore_50: -0.807 · trend: -53.66%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3048	ADX: 10.9 (weak) · Chop: 73.6 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.807% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.600% (8.8192)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.497%	0.3R	-0.013%	0.0R	39.1×	12
2h	+0.497%	0.3R	-0.274%	0.2R	1.8×	24
4h	+0.497%	0.3R	-1.228%	0.8R	0.4×	48
8h	+0.497%	0.3R	-2.400%	1.5R	0.2×	96
12h ★	+0.497%	0.3R	-2.498%	1.6R	0.2×	144
24h	+0.497%	0.3R	-2.498%	1.6R	0.2×	288
36h	+0.497%	0.3R	-2.498%	1.6R	0.2×	432
48h	+0.497%	0.3R	-3.525%	2.2R	0.1×	576
72h	+2.313%	1.5R	-3.525%	2.2R	0.7×	864

⏱ MFE in 57 min MAE in 592 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 4 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.66

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	normal	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 35%	early	—	—	0.49	bull_high	+12.59%	-0.18	29/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 35%	early	near -0.5ATR	—	0.28	bull_high	+1.65%	+0.14	30/09 20:00
1h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	56%	noisy_chop 41%	mid	—	near -1.0ATR	0.23	range_medium	+0.39%	+0.02	01/10 00:00
15m	↑ up	range	range	strong	fading	expansion	bull_low	46%	noisy_chop 44%	late	—	near -0.6ATR	0.44	range_low	+0.45%	+0.03	01/10 00:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #187771	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.617	normal	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 35%	early 9b 0.1ATR	—	—	0.40	69%	↓ -0.23	above_value	+0.41	—	#101630	0.49	bull_high	+12.59%	-0.18	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 20:27
4h #189370	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.628	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 35%	early 15b 0.6ATR	near -0.5ATR	—	0.35	2%	↓ -0.46	above_value	+1.11	—	#102329	0.28	bull_high	+1.65%	+0.14	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 00:19
1h anchor #189731	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.565	compression	bull_high	56%	noisy_chop 41%	mid 6b 1.4ATR	—	near -1.0ATR	0.80	30%	↓ -0.47	value	+1.75	—	#102563	0.23	range_medium	+0.39%	+0.02	01/10 00:00 upd 01/10 01:11
15m #189651	↑ up	range	range	strong	fading	0.488	expansion	bull_low	46%	noisy_chop 44%	late 10b 1.9ATR	—	near -0.6ATR	0.91	31%	↑ +0.24	above_value	+1.11	—	#102329	0.44	range_low	+0.45%	+0.03	01/10 00:45 upd 01/10 01:04
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	9b	—	2.664×ATR	p15	+0.143×ATR	p9
4h	↑ up	early	15b	—	2.521×ATR	p22	+0.6×ATR	p49
1h	↑ up	mid	6b	—	2.733×ATR	p68	+1.359×ATR	p79
15m	↑ up	late	10b	—	4.195×ATR	p90	+1.867×ATR	p96

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.9439
reason: up_bo width=2.54×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
stop_price: 542.43083692
tp_price: 573.2979077
atr:
score: 0.9439045936521
expires_at: 2026-10-01T17:16:59.050806
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.9439045936521

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.0986
obi_top10 : 0.1055
micro_price : 551.80486486
spread_pct : 0.034444
mid_price : 551.715
bid_wall_price : 548
bid_wall_size : 529.64
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 553
ask_wall_size : 417.4
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.0986
obi_top5_std : 0.0002
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6945
aggregation_tick : 1
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
547.76
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
537.88
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
542.82
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790665200
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790830800
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.5388
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
47
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.9439
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790823600
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
547.76
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.9149
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
2
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.8968
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
7
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
6
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 3.89163081

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.9149

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.8968

Signaux confirmants (13)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	01:17	551.25000000	0%
2	01:27	551.25000000	0%
3	01:38	552.40000000	+0.209%
4	01:49	552.40000000	+0.209%
5	01:59	552.40000000	+0.209%
6	02:13	553.31000000	+0.374%
7	02:25	553.31000000	+0.374%
8	02:36	553.31000000	+0.374%
9	02:47	552.53000000	+0.232%
10	02:57	552.53000000	+0.232%
11	03:10	551.74000000	+0.089%
12	03:21	551.74000000	+0.089%
13	03:33	551.74000000	+0.089%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6945ms Confidence avant OB : 94% → 94%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.099

avg 0.099 ± 0.000

OBI Top 10 0.106

Microstructure

Mid Price

551.7150

Micro Price

551.8049

Spread

0.0344%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

548.0000

Size

529.64

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

553.0000

Size

417.40

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
551.25	542.4308	573.2979	2.5	600.9

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 551.25
Stop Loss: 542.4308
Take Profit: 573.2979

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 542.4308 - 551.25 = -8.8192
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 551.25 - 573.2979 = -22.0479
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -22.0479 / -8.8192 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
500.0474	100	0.9071	5.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -8.8192

Taille de position = 8 / -8.8192 = -0.91

Taille de position USD = -0.91 x 551.25 = -501.64

Donc, tu peux acheter -0.91 avec un stoploss a 542.4308

Avec un position size USD de -501.64$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -0.91 x -8.8192 = 8.03

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.03$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -0.91 x -22.0479 = 20.06

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.06$

Résumé

Taille de position -0.91
Taille de position USD -501.64
Perte potentielle 8.03
Gain potentiel 20.06
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
4 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
1.6 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-1.60

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.698 %	106.13 %	9

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
551.25	542.4308	573.2979	2.5	600.9

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 551.25
Stop Loss: 542.4308
Take Profit: 573.2979

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 542.4308 - 551.25 = -8.8192
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 551.25 - 573.2979 = -22.0479
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -22.0479 / -8.8192 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 573.2979
            [entry_price] => 551.25
            [stop_loss] => 541.54888
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 10:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 573.2979
            [entry_price] => 551.25
            [stop_loss] => 540.66696
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 10:20:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 573.2979
            [entry_price] => 551.25
            [stop_loss] => 539.78504
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 10:20:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.600% (8.8192)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.497%	0.3R	-0.013%	0.0R	39.1×	12
2h	+0.497%	0.3R	-0.274%	0.2R	1.8×	24
4h	+0.497%	0.3R	-1.228%	0.8R	0.4×	48
8h	+0.497%	0.3R	-2.400%	1.5R	0.2×	96
12h ★	+0.497%	0.3R	-2.498%	1.6R	0.2×	144
24h	+0.497%	0.3R	-2.498%	1.6R	0.2×	288
36h	+0.497%	0.3R	-2.498%	1.6R	0.2×	432
48h	+0.497%	0.3R	-3.525%	2.2R	0.1×	576
72h	+2.313%	1.5R	-3.525%	2.2R	0.7×	864

⏱ MFE in 57 min MAE in 592 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 4 days ago

Commentaires

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