01 Oct 2026 at 01:38:19 hyperliquid

Long Trade on AERO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 275.28 AERO at 0.839$ per unit. Take profit: 0.9114 (8.67 %) & Stop Loss: 0.8097 (3.46 %)

AERO LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 01:38 → 04:00 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.8387$

Qty 275.2833 AERO

Size 230.8911$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.9114 (+8.67%)

TP $ 20.01$

SL 0.8097 (-3.46%)

SL $ 7.98$

RR 2.51

Status loss PnL -3.46% / -7.98$ MAE -7.55% MFE +1.51% 0.4R expires 01 Oct 13:38

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 169042)
#14 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 01:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5890

Quality Score
0.584
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 01:32

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169042)
#14 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 01:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5890

Quality Score
0.584
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#14 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.46 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#14 / 77 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.46 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.75×ATR
4h clear 1.85×ATR
1d clear 0.67×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
4.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 01:32
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

01/10 00:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4527
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

compression

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 80.0%
Macro broad_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 48.3%
1h 85.0%
4h 86.7%
24h 71.7%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 48.3% -0.00%
4h 70.0% +1.30%
24h 51.7% +1.23%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.171
Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 01/10 01:31 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6568
Score SMA
0.7271
Rank
#23 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7067
Rank Norm SMA
0.7763
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.8669 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.67% · r3d: -2.07% · ema21_slope: 2.4208% · dist_ema21: 16.995%
Force Relative 25% 0.7620 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.69% · rs_3d: -1.09% · beta_24h: 1.122
Volume 20% 0.3681 rvol_20: 0.69× · zscore_50: -0.047 · trend: 55.90%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8844 ADX: 46.1 (trend) · Chop: 26.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 7.829% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.5842
Score SMA
0.5708
Rank
#14 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5890
Rank Norm SMA
0.5481
Calculé le
01/10/2026 01:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5791 r1h: 1.627% · r4h: 0.480% · r1d: 3.53% · r3d: 3.50% · ema21_slope: 0.0200% · dist_ema21: 1.590%
Force Relative 25% 0.5976 rs_1h: 1.196% · rs_4h: -0.249% · rs_1d: 2.42% · rs_3d: 2.73% · beta_24h: 1.809
Volume 20% 0.4725 rvol_20: 1.78× · zscore_50: 0.423 · trend: -20.41%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4439 ADX: 18.6 (weak) · Chop: 64.2 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.571% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.5077
Score SMA
0.6216
Rank
#41 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5835
Rank Norm SMA
0.6646
Calculé le
01/10/2026 00:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6334 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.045% · r1d: 1.58% · r3d: 1.56% · ema21_slope: 0.0040% · dist_ema21: 0.163%
Force Relative 25% 0.6215 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.196% · rs_1d: 1.02% · rs_3d: 1.04% · beta_24h: 2.428
Volume 20% 0.1491 rvol_20: 0.38× · zscore_50: -0.765 · trend: -49.95%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3688 ADX: 16.6 (weak) · Chop: 71.5 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.7719 ATR%: 3.684% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.458% (0.0290)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.507% 0.4R -0.271% 0.1R 5.6× 12
2h +1.507% 0.4R -2.460% 0.7R 0.6× 24
4h +1.507% 0.4R -4.887% 1.4R 0.3× 48
8h +1.507% 0.4R -5.073% 1.5R 0.3× 96
12h ★ +1.507% 0.4R -7.547% 2.2R 0.2× 144
24h +1.507% 0.4R -8.136% 2.4R 0.2× 288
36h +1.507% 0.4R -8.136% 2.4R 0.2× 432
48h +1.507% 0.4R -8.985% 2.6R 0.2× 576
72h +2.741% 0.8R -8.985% 2.6R 0.3× 864
⏱ MFE in 31 min MAE in 846 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 4 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.78
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high_confirmed
72%
noisy_chop 43% mid — — 0.65 bull_high +12.59% +1.00 29/09 20:00
4h ↑ up range range moderate balanced compression bull_high
56%
noisy_chop 35% early near 0.3ATR — 0.53 bull_high +1.65% -0.29 30/09 20:00
1h ↑ up range range moderate balanced normal bull_high
62%
noisy_chop 42% mid — — 0.51 range_medium +0.39% +0.16 01/10 00:00
15m ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong balanced volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 41% late — near 0.1ATR 0.60 range_low +0.65% +0.06 01/10 01:15
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187765
↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind 0.627 expansion bull_high_confirmed
72%
noisy_chop 43% mid 4b 1.6ATR — — 0.69 86% ↑ +0.78 above_value -0.50 — #101628 0.65 bull_high +12.59% +1.00
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:27
4h
#189364
↑ up range range moderate balanced 0.555 compression bull_high
56%
noisy_chop 35% early 11b 0.0ATR near 0.3ATR — 0.38 50% ↓ -0.57 above_value -0.97 — #102327 0.53 bull_high +1.65% -0.29
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 00:19
1h anchor
#189729
↑ up range range moderate balanced 0.553 normal bull_high
62%
noisy_chop 42% mid 1b 1.1ATR — — 1.78 59% ↔ +0.04 above_value -0.02 — #102561 0.51 range_medium +0.39% +0.16
01/10 00:00
upd 01/10 01:11
15m
#189883
↑ up transition bullish_transition strong balanced 0.574 volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 41% late 12b 1.9ATR — near 0.1ATR 0.82 53% ↑ +0.40 above_value -0.02 — #102561 0.60 range_low +0.65% +0.06
01/10 01:15
upd 01/10 01:33
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 4b — 1.67×ATR p0 +1.575×ATR p73
4h ↓ down early 11b — 1.449×ATR p0 +0.045×ATR p3
1h ↑ up mid 1b — 1.569×ATR p2 +1.131×ATR p69
15m ↑ up late 12b — 4.14×ATR p71 +1.911×ATR p89

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.9634
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.04×ATR dur=37b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(+0.07)
  4. stop_price: 0.80967903
  5. tp_price: 0.91139243
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.89344182922411
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T17:38:12.068592
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.89344182922411
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.1511
  14. obi_top10 : 0.0089
  15. micro_price : 0.83860323
  16. spread_pct : 0.083492
  17. mid_price : 0.83875
  18. bid_wall_price :
  19. bid_wall_size :
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price :
  22. ask_wall_size :
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.1509
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0011
  27. pressure_side : bid
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7045
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.8245
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.79751
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.811005
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790701200
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790830800
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.0355
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    37
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8934
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790827200
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.8245
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.8108
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    1.0739
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    3
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    7
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.01325973
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
37
inside_close_ratio
0.8108
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0739

Signaux confirmants (8)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 01:38 0.83874000 +0.005%
2 01:49 0.83874000 +0.005%
3 01:59 0.83874000 +0.005%
4 02:46 0.83996000 +0.15%
5 02:57 0.83996000 +0.15%
6 03:09 0.82963000 -1.081%
7 03:20 0.82963000 -1.081%
8 03:32 0.82963000 -1.081%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7045ms Confidence avant OB : 89% → 96%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.151
avg 0.151 ± 0.001
OBI Top 10 0.009

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.8388
Micro Price
0.8386
Spread
0.0835%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.8387 0.8097 0.9114 2.51 0.6748
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.8387
  • Stop Loss: 0.8097
  • Take Profit: 0.9114

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.8097 - 0.8387 = -0.029

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.8387 - 0.9114 = -0.0727

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0727 / -0.029 = 2.5069

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
230.8911 100 275.2833 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.029

Taille de position = 8 / -0.029 = -275.86

Taille de position USD = -275.86 x 0.8387 = -231.36

Donc, tu peux acheter -275.86 avec un stoploss a 0.8097

Avec un position size USD de -231.36$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -275.86 x -0.029 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -275.86 x -0.0727 = 20.06

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.06$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -275.86
  • Taille de position USD -231.36
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.06
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5069

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
8.67 % 20.01 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.46 % 7.98 $
PNL PNL %
-7.98 $ -3.46
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.4816 % 100.69 % 2
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.8387 0.8097 0.9114 2.51 0.6748
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.8387
  • Stop Loss: 0.8097
  • Take Profit: 0.9114

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.8097 - 0.8387 = -0.029

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.8387 - 0.9114 = -0.0727

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0727 / -0.029 = 2.5069

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.9114
            [entry_price] => 0.8387
            [stop_loss] => 0.8068
            [rr_ratio] => 2.28
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 08:05:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.9114
            [entry_price] => 0.8387
            [stop_loss] => 0.8039
            [rr_ratio] => 2.09
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 08:10:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.9114
            [entry_price] => 0.8387
            [stop_loss] => 0.801
            [rr_ratio] => 1.93
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 08:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.458% (0.0290)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.507% 0.4R -0.271% 0.1R 5.6× 12
2h +1.507% 0.4R -2.460% 0.7R 0.6× 24
4h +1.507% 0.4R -4.887% 1.4R 0.3× 48
8h +1.507% 0.4R -5.073% 1.5R 0.3× 96
12h ★ +1.507% 0.4R -7.547% 2.2R 0.2× 144
24h +1.507% 0.4R -8.136% 2.4R 0.2× 288
36h +1.507% 0.4R -8.136% 2.4R 0.2× 432
48h +1.507% 0.4R -8.985% 2.6R 0.2× 576
72h +2.741% 0.8R -8.985% 2.6R 0.3× 864
⏱ MFE in 31 min MAE in 846 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 4 days ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.