Long Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.86 TAO at 312.47$ per unit. Take profit: 335.7667 (7.46 %) & Stop Loss: 303.1513 (2.98 %)
01 Oct 2026 at 03:16:21
hyperliquid
TAO
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Oct 2026 03:16
→ 06:00
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 312.47$
Qty 0.8585 TAO
Size 268.253$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 335.7667 (+7.46%)
TP $ 20$
SL 303.1513 (-2.98%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.98%
/ -8$
MAE -4.07%
MFE +0.00%
0.0R
expires
01 Oct 15:16
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 169163)
#36 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 03:00
score du 01/10/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4001
Quality Score
0.502
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
27.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 03:16
01/10 03:16
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 169163)
#36 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 03:00
score du 01/10/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4001
Quality Score
0.502
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#36 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#36 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.26×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.97×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.24×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
27.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 03:16
01/10 03:16
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/09 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 01/10 02:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4534
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
compression
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
65.6%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 40.0% |
| 1h | 48.3% |
| 4h | 68.3% |
| 24h | 73.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 40.0% | -0.07% |
| 4h | 50.0% | +0.40% |
| 24h | 56.7% | +1.37% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.143
Universe :
60
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
01/10 03:16
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5740
Score SMA
0.6451
Rank
#43
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4400
Rank Norm SMA
0.5576
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7494 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.18% · r3d: -5.98% · ema21_slope: 1.7972% · dist_ema21: 6.912% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5967 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.20% · rs_3d: -5.00% · beta_24h: 2.316 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3988 | rvol_20: 0.89× · zscore_50: 0.302 · trend: 36.88% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8019 | ADX: 36.2 (trend) · Chop: 32.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.525% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.5024
Score SMA
0.5406
Rank
#36
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4001
Rank Norm SMA
0.4985
Calculé le
01/10/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5999 | r1h: 0.604% · r4h: 2.149% · r1d: 3.72% · r3d: 2.07% · ema21_slope: -0.0058% · dist_ema21: 2.005% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6010 | rs_1h: 0.821% · rs_4h: 1.397% · rs_1d: 2.41% · rs_3d: 0.90% · beta_24h: 1.413 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1572 | rvol_20: 0.26× · zscore_50: -0.643 · trend: -69.40% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4474 | ADX: 13.8 (weak) · Chop: 58.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.439% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4946
Score SMA
0.5625
Rank
#49
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3175
Rank Norm SMA
0.5032
Calculé le
01/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6233 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.990% · r1d: 2.11% · r3d: -0.30% · ema21_slope: -0.1078% · dist_ema21: 0.185% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5978 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.839% · rs_1d: 1.55% · rs_3d: -0.82% · beta_24h: 2.781 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1236 | rvol_20: 0.24× · zscore_50: -1.328 · trend: -40.92% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3346 | ADX: 13.2 (weak) · Chop: 72.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.8327 | ATR%: 3.502% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.982%
(9.3187)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.541% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.743% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.287% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -4.071% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -4.071% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.381% | 0.1R | -4.071% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.386% | 0.5R | -9.780% | 3.3R | 0.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.386% | 0.5R | -9.780% | 3.3R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.386% | 0.5R | -9.780% | 3.3R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1818 min
MAE in 2128 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 5 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
69%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.64 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.92 | 29/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | 0.53 | bull_high | +1.65% | -0.51 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.56 | range_medium | +0.37% | +0.13 | 01/10 02:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bull_medium |
62%
|
noisy_chop 50% | late | — | — | 0.61 | range_low | +0.36% | +0.28 | 01/10 02:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#187668
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.708 | expansion | bull_high_confirmed |
69%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early 14b 0.7ATR | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.89 | 77% | ↑ +0.76 | above_value | -0.73 | — | #101596 | 0.64 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.92 |
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:23
|
|
4h
#189266
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.712 | compression | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early 27b 0.1ATR | — | — | 0.24 | 22% | ↓ -0.46 | above_value | +0.45 | — | #102294 | 0.53 | bull_high | +1.65% | -0.51 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 00:15
|
|
1h
anchor #190471
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.461 | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid 8b 1.5ATR | — | — | 0.26 | 7% | ↓ -0.87 | value | +1.45 | — | #102837 | 0.56 | range_medium | +0.37% | +0.13 |
01/10 02:00
upd 01/10 03:10
|
|
15m
#190397
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.323 | compression | bull_medium |
62%
|
noisy_chop 50% | late 19b 2.7ATR | — | — | 1.30 | 45% | ↔ +0.11 | above_value | +1.02 | — | #102683 | 0.61 | range_low | +0.36% | +0.28 |
01/10 02:45
upd 01/10 03:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 14b | — | 3.87×ATR | p43 | +0.73×ATR | p36 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 27b | — | 3.209×ATR | p33 | +0.056×ATR | p3 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 8b | — | 3.106×ATR | p73 | +1.509×ATR | p76 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 19b | — | 6.687×ATR | p100 | +2.663×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.9613
- reason: up_bo width=2.91×ATR dur=59b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 303.15133541
- tp_price: 335.76666148
- atr:
- score: 0.96125926265917
- expires_at: 2026-10-01T19:16:13.576923
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.96125926265917
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0875
- obi_top10 : -0.0869
- micro_price : 311.01896595
- spread_pct : 0.016078
- mid_price : 311.005
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0012
- obi_top5_std : 0.0673
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7069
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
309.81
- balance_zone_bottom:
297.35
- balance_zone_mid:
303.58
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790629200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790838000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9067
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
59
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9613
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790834400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
309.81
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7966
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6205
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
12
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 4.28664592 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
59
inside_close_ratio
0.7966
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6205
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:16 | 312.47000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 03:27 | 312.47000000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7069ms
Confidence avant OB :
96%
→
96%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.088
avg 0.001
± 0.067
OBI Top 10
-0.087
Microstructure
Mid Price
311.0050
Micro Price
311.0190
Spread
0.0161%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 312.47 | 303.1513 | 335.7667 | 2.5 | 250.34 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 312.47
- Stop Loss: 303.1513
- Take Profit: 335.7667
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 303.1513 - 312.47 = -9.3187
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 312.47 - 335.7667 = -23.2967
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -23.2967 / -9.3187 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 268.253 | 100 | 0.8585 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -9.3187
Taille de position = 8 / -9.3187 = -0.86
Taille de position USD = -0.86 x 312.47 = -268.72
Donc, tu peux acheter -0.86 avec un stoploss a 303.1513
Avec un position size USD de -268.72$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -0.86 x -9.3187 = 8.01
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.01$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -0.86 x -23.2967 = 20.04
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.04$
Résumé
- Taille de position -0.86
- Taille de position USD -268.72
- Perte potentielle 8.01
- Gain potentiel 20.04
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 7.46 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.98 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -2.98 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0051 % | 100.76 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 312.47 | 303.1513 | 335.7667 | 2.5 | 250.34 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 312.47
- Stop Loss: 303.1513
- Take Profit: 335.7667
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 303.1513 - 312.47 = -9.3187
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 312.47 - 335.7667 = -23.2967
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -23.2967 / -9.3187 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 335.7667
[entry_price] => 312.47
[stop_loss] => 302.21943
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-10-01 10:25:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 335.7667
[entry_price] => 312.47
[stop_loss] => 301.28756
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-01 13:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 335.7667
[entry_price] => 312.47
[stop_loss] => 300.35569
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-10-01 13:10:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.982%
(9.3187)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.541% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.743% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.287% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -4.071% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -4.071% | 1.4R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.381% | 0.1R | -4.071% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.386% | 0.5R | -9.780% | 3.3R | 0.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.386% | 0.5R | -9.780% | 3.3R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.386% | 0.5R | -9.780% | 3.3R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1818 min
MAE in 2128 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 5 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.