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Short Trade on ARB

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01 Oct 2026 at 04:11:23 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ARB (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1466.14 ARB at 0.199$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1857 (6.82 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2048 (2.76 %)

ARB SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 04:11 → 16:10 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.1993$

Qty 1466.144 ARB

Size 292.2318$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.1857 (+6.82%)

TP $ 19.94$

SL 0.2048 (-2.76%)

SL $ 8.06$

RR 2.47

Status loss PnL -0.92% / -2.7$ MAE -1.69% MFE +1.45% 0.5R expires 01 Oct 16:11 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 169206)
#20 / 78 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 04:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3404

Quality Score
0.521
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
97 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
15.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 04:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169206)
#20 / 78 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 04:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3404

Quality Score
0.521
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#20 / 78 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
97 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.76 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#20 / 78 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
97 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-6 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.76 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.20×ATR
4h clear 1.01×ATR
1d clear 2.14×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up early OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
15.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 04:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

30/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 02:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4537
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

-2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 32.8%
Macro btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 66.1%
1h 5.1%
4h 30.5%
24h 55.9%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 50.9% +0.07%
4h 32.2% -0.66%
24h 40.7% +0.15%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.185
Universe : 59 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 01/10 04:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4846
Score SMA
0.5682
Rank
#69 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0933
Rank Norm SMA
0.2832
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6115 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.22% · r3d: -10.29% · ema21_slope: 2.2117% · dist_ema21: 4.952%
Force Relative 25% 0.5131 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.20% · rs_3d: -9.31% · beta_24h: 1.713
Volume 20% 0.2205 rvol_20: 0.38× · zscore_50: -0.457 · trend: -11.75%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8583 ADX: 48.5 (trend) · Chop: 43.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 10.744% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.5210
Score SMA
0.4886
Rank
#20 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3404
Rank Norm SMA
0.2799
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3152 r1h: -3.021% · r4h: -2.443% · r1d: -1.63% · r3d: -3.39% · ema21_slope: -0.0104% · dist_ema21: -2.179%
Force Relative 25% 0.3116 rs_1h: -2.180% · rs_4h: -2.031% · rs_1d: -1.79% · rs_3d: -3.95% · beta_24h: 1.764
Volume 20% 0.9247 rvol_20: 3.54× · zscore_50: 2.557 · trend: 65.70%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4028 ADX: 10.6 (weak) · Chop: 61.1 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.765% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4350
Score SMA
0.4464
Rank
#66 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1174
Rank Norm SMA
0.1371
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3620 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.443% · r1d: -1.63% · r3d: -3.39% · ema21_slope: -0.2546% · dist_ema21: -3.381%
Force Relative 25% 0.3598 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.031% · rs_1d: -1.79% · rs_3d: -3.95% · beta_24h: 3.095
Volume 20% 0.3440 rvol_20: 1.27× · zscore_50: 0.013 · trend: -35.53%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4130 ADX: 14.1 (weak) · Chop: 63.5 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.6230 ATR%: 4.131% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.760% (0.0055)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.386% 0.1R -1.285% 0.5R 0.3× 12
2h +1.450% 0.5R -1.285% 0.5R 1.1× 24
4h +1.450% 0.5R -1.285% 0.5R 1.1× 48
8h +1.450% 0.5R -1.495% 0.5R 1.0× 96
12h ★ +1.450% 0.5R -1.691% 0.6R 0.9× 144
24h +1.450% 0.5R -4.857% 1.8R 0.3× 288
36h +5.454% 2.0R -4.857% 1.8R 1.1× 432
48h +5.454% 2.0R -4.857% 1.8R 1.1× 576
72h +5.454% 2.0R -4.857% 1.8R 1.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 2103 min MAE in 1238 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 5 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.5
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high
69%
noisy_chop 37% early — — 0.58 bull_high +12.59% +0.99 29/09 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind compression bull_high
55%
noisy_chop 40% early — — 0.33 bull_high +1.65% -0.75 30/09 20:00
1h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 37% early near -0.2ATR — 0.39 range_medium +0.37% +0.06 01/10 02:00
15m ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate fading volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
45%
noisy_chop 39% late — — 0.70 range_low -0.47% -0.22 01/10 03:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187524
 ↑ up early_expansion bullish_transition moderate grind 0.623 expansion bull_high
69%
noisy_chop 37% early 7b 0.4ATR — — 0.38 84% ↔ +0.13 below_value -5.64 — #101563 0.58 bull_high +12.59% +0.99
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:17
4h
#189200
 ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.386 compression bull_high
55%
noisy_chop 40% early 12b -0.4ATR — — 0.16 9% ↓ -0.75 below_value -5.71 — #102261 0.33 bull_high +1.65% -0.75
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 00:12
1h anchor
#190438
 ↔ neutral range range moderate fading 0.422 compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 37% early 8b 0.5ATR near -0.2ATR — 0.69 27% ↓ -0.57 below_value -5.44 — #102804 0.39 range_medium +0.37% +0.06
01/10 02:00
upd 01/10 03:09
15m
#190751
 ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate fading 0.488 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
45%
noisy_chop 39% late 7b -2.3ATR — — 0.99 80% ↑ +0.60 below_value -5.44 — #102804 0.70 range_low -0.47% -0.22
01/10 03:45
upd 01/10 04:00
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 7b — 2.428×ATR p0 +0.361×ATR p15
4h ↑ up early 12b — 1.579×ATR p0 -0.36×ATR p17
1h ↑ up early 8b — 1.476×ATR p0 +0.488×ATR p41
15m ↓ down late 7b — 4.845×ATR p89 -2.256×ATR p91

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.9737
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.43×ATR dur=66b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.20477649
  5. tp_price: 0.18567878
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.97371377278318
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T20:11:15.870632
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.97371377278318
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : -0.0232
  10. obi_top10 : 0.0055
  11. micro_price : 0.19908375
  12. spread_pct : 0.030146
  13. mid_price : 0.19906
  14. bid_wall_price :
  15. bid_wall_size :
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price : 0.2
  18. ask_wall_size : 1569265.31
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.0339
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0234
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7019
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    0.2085
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    0.200385
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    0.2044425
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1790607600
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1790841600
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.4297
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    66
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: stretched
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.9737
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1790838000
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    0.200385
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.7727
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.3189
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    12
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    13
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.00333988
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
66
inside_close_ratio
0.7727
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3189

Signaux confirmants (18)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 04:11 0.19932000 +0.01%
2 04:23 0.19932000 +0.01%
3 04:34 0.19985000 +0.276%
4 04:45 0.19985000 +0.276%
5 04:55 0.19985000 +0.276%
6 06:12 0.19686000 -1.224%
7 06:23 0.19686000 -1.224%
8 06:34 0.19885000 -0.226%
9 06:45 0.19885000 -0.226%
10 06:56 0.19885000 -0.226%
11 07:08 0.19842000 -0.442%
12 07:19 0.19842000 -0.442%
13 07:30 0.19842000 -0.442%
14 07:42 0.19859000 -0.356%
15 07:53 0.19859000 -0.356%
16 08:06 0.19859000 -0.356%
17 09:18 0.19915000 -0.075%
18 09:29 0.19915000 -0.075%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7019ms Confidence avant OB : 97% → 97%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.023
avg -0.034 ± 0.023
OBI Top 10 0.006

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.1991
Micro Price
0.1991
Spread
0.0301%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.2000
Size
1,569,265.31

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1993 0.2048 0.1857 2.47 0.1671
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1993
  • Stop Loss: 0.2048
  • Take Profit: 0.1857

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2048 - 0.1993 = 0.0055

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1993 - 0.1857 = 0.0136

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0136 / 0.0055 = 2.4727

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
292.2318 100 1466.144 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0055

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0055 = 1454.55

Taille de position USD = 1454.55 x 0.1993 = 289.89

Donc, tu peux acheter 1454.55 avec un stoploss a 0.2048

Avec un position size USD de 289.89$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1454.55 x 0.0055 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1454.55 x 0.0136 = 19.78

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.78$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1454.55
  • Taille de position USD 289.89
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 19.78
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4727

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
6.82 % 19.94 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.76 % 8.06 $
PNL PNL %
-2.7 $ -0.92
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.6909 % 61.27 % 28
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1993 0.2048 0.1857 2.47 0.1671
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1993
  • Stop Loss: 0.2048
  • Take Profit: 0.1857

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2048 - 0.1993 = 0.0055

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1993 - 0.1857 = 0.0136

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0136 / 0.0055 = 2.4727

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.760% (0.0055)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.386% 0.1R -1.285% 0.5R 0.3× 12
2h +1.450% 0.5R -1.285% 0.5R 1.1× 24
4h +1.450% 0.5R -1.285% 0.5R 1.1× 48
8h +1.450% 0.5R -1.495% 0.5R 1.0× 96
12h ★ +1.450% 0.5R -1.691% 0.6R 0.9× 144
24h +1.450% 0.5R -4.857% 1.8R 0.3× 288
36h +5.454% 2.0R -4.857% 1.8R 1.1× 432
48h +5.454% 2.0R -4.857% 1.8R 1.1× 576
72h +5.454% 2.0R -4.857% 1.8R 1.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 2103 min MAE in 1238 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 5 days ago

Commentaires

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