01 Oct 2026 at 04:14:50 hyperliquid

Long Trade on FET (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 919.38 FET at 0.234$ per unit. Take profit: 0.256 (9.31 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2255 (3.71 %)

FET LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 04:14 → 09:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.2342$

Qty 919.3817 FET

Size 215.3284$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.256 (+9.31%)

TP $ 20.04$

SL 0.2255 (-3.71%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.51

Status loss PnL -3.71% / -8$ MAE -4.58% MFE +2.43% 0.7R expires 01 Oct 16:14

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 169229)
#7 / 78 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 04:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.8651

Quality Score
0.672
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 04:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169229)
#7 / 78 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 04:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.8651

Quality Score
0.672
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#7 / 78 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.71 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#7 / 78 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.71 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.28×ATR
4h near -0.11×ATR
1d clear 1.44×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
3.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 04:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

01/10 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

01/10 03:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4537
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 32.8%
Macro btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 66.1%
1h 5.1%
4h 30.5%
24h 55.9%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 50.9% +0.07%
4h 32.2% -0.66%
24h 40.7% +0.15%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.185
Universe : 59 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 01/10 04:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6404
Score SMA
0.6989
Rank
#27 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6533
Rank Norm SMA
0.6882
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.8324 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 2.82% · r3d: -7.51% · ema21_slope: 2.2556% · dist_ema21: 12.365%
Force Relative 25% 0.7234 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 2.83% · rs_3d: -6.53% · beta_24h: 1.788
Volume 20% 0.4388 rvol_20: 1.04× · zscore_50: 0.504 · trend: 39.46%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8136 ADX: 37.6 (trend) · Chop: 28.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 8.048% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.6716
Score SMA
0.5749
Rank
#7 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8651
Rank Norm SMA
0.5874
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5914 r1h: -2.877% · r4h: 0.687% · r1d: 8.85% · r3d: 2.76% · ema21_slope: 0.2708% · dist_ema21: 2.336%
Force Relative 25% 0.5650 rs_1h: -2.036% · rs_4h: 1.099% · rs_1d: 8.69% · rs_3d: 2.19% · beta_24h: 1.612
Volume 20% 0.6373 rvol_20: 1.86× · zscore_50: 1.480 · trend: 41.35%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7002 ADX: 24.0 (weak) · Chop: 35.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.191% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.6860
Score SMA
0.6142
Rank
#6 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8097
Rank Norm SMA
0.6383
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6945 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.687% · r1d: 8.85% · r3d: 2.76% · ema21_slope: -0.1100% · dist_ema21: 3.289%
Force Relative 25% 0.7646 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.099% · rs_1d: 8.69% · rs_3d: 2.19% · beta_24h: 3.057
Volume 20% 0.4431 rvol_20: 1.44× · zscore_50: 0.423 · trend: -1.54%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5365 ADX: 19.9 (weak) · Chop: 54.2 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.6432 ATR%: 4.071% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.715% (0.0087)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.658% 0.2R -0.576% 0.2R 1.1× 12
2h +1.059% 0.3R -2.579% 0.7R 0.4× 24
4h +2.434% 0.7R -2.579% 0.7R 0.9× 48
8h +2.434% 0.7R -4.577% 1.2R 0.5× 96
12h ★ +2.434% 0.7R -4.577% 1.2R 0.5× 144
24h +3.382% 0.9R -4.577% 1.2R 0.7× 288
36h +3.382% 0.9R -8.134% 2.2R 0.4× 432
48h +3.382% 0.9R -8.318% 2.2R 0.4× 576
72h +3.382% 0.9R -8.318% 2.2R 0.4× 864
⏱ MFE in 1240 min MAE in 2070 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 5 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.8
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate balanced volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
62%
noisy_chop 43% early — — 0.66 bull_high +12.59% +0.99 29/09 20:00
4h ↑ up range range moderate grind normal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 38% early — near -0.1ATR 0.60 bull_high +1.21% -0.34 01/10 00:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 41% mid — — 0.53 range_medium -0.47% +0.56 01/10 03:00
15m ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 40% mid — — 0.58 range_low -0.47% +0.18 01/10 03:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187626
↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate balanced 0.671 volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
62%
noisy_chop 43% early 4b 1.2ATR — — 1.04 83% ↑ +0.60 above_value -0.24 — #101586 0.66 bull_high +12.59% +0.99
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:22
4h
#190879
↑ up range range moderate grind 0.611 normal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 38% early 6b 0.8ATR — near -0.1ATR 1.44 89% ↓ -0.16 value +1.10 — #102983 0.60 bull_high +1.21% -0.34
01/10 00:00
upd 01/10 04:14
1h anchor
#190878
↔ neutral range range strong explosive 0.671 volatile_reversal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 41% mid 16b 1.1ATR — — 1.86 84% ↔ -0.04 value +1.10 — #102983 0.53 range_medium -0.47% +0.56
01/10 03:00
upd 01/10 04:14
15m
#190773
↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive 0.695 volatile_reversal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 40% mid 3b -0.2ATR — — 1.76 95% ↑ +0.61 above_value +2.66 — #102827 0.58 range_low -0.47% +0.18
01/10 03:45
upd 01/10 04:02
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 4b — 1.672×ATR p0 +1.153×ATR p51
4h ↑ up early 6b — 2.375×ATR p28 +0.766×ATR p40
1h ↑ up mid 16b — 3.19×ATR p67 +1.074×ATR p57
15m ↓ down mid 3b — 3.447×ATR p50 -0.215×ATR p8

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.896
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.69×ATR dur=63b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(+0.07)
  4. stop_price: 0.2255085
  5. tp_price: 0.25596374
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.82602908968766
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T20:14:42.833932
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.82602908968766
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.2109
  14. obi_top10 : 0.2749
  15. micro_price : 0.23377339
  16. spread_pct : 0.04279
  17. mid_price : 0.23375
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.232
  19. bid_wall_size : 638704.2
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.235
  22. ask_wall_size : 400628
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.2148
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0098
  27. pressure_side : bid
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 6863
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.232695
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.219315
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.226005
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790618400
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790841600
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.6949
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    63
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: stretched
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.826
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790823600
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.232695
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.7937
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    5
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.3051
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    1
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    1
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    9
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    13
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00496496
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
63
inside_close_ratio
0.7937
bars_since_breakout
5
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3051

Signaux confirmants (15)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 04:14 0.23421000 +0.004%
2 04:26 0.23421000 +0.004%
3 04:37 0.23288000 -0.564%
4 04:48 0.23288000 -0.564%
5 04:58 0.23288000 -0.564%
6 07:11 0.23371000 -0.209%
7 07:22 0.23371000 -0.209%
8 07:33 0.23371000 -0.209%
9 07:44 0.23370000 -0.213%
10 07:55 0.23370000 -0.213%
11 08:10 0.23665000 +1.046%
12 08:23 0.23665000 +1.046%
13 08:34 0.23665000 +1.046%
14 08:46 0.23409000 -0.047%
15 08:57 0.23409000 -0.047%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6863ms Confidence avant OB : 83% → 90%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.211
avg 0.215 ± 0.010
OBI Top 10 0.275

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.2338
Micro Price
0.2338
Spread
0.0428%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.2320
Size
638,704.20

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.2350
Size
400,628.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2342 0.2255 0.256 2.51 0.174
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2342
  • Stop Loss: 0.2255
  • Take Profit: 0.256

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2255 - 0.2342 = -0.0087

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2342 - 0.256 = -0.0218

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0218 / -0.0087 = 2.5057

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
215.3284 100 919.3817 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.0087

Taille de position = 8 / -0.0087 = -919.54

Taille de position USD = -919.54 x 0.2342 = -215.36

Donc, tu peux acheter -919.54 avec un stoploss a 0.2255

Avec un position size USD de -215.36$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -919.54 x -0.0087 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -919.54 x -0.0218 = 20.05

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.05$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -919.54
  • Taille de position USD -215.36
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.05
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5057

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
9.31 % 20.04 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.71 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -3.71
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.719 % 100.11 % 19
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2342 0.2255 0.256 2.51 0.174
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2342
  • Stop Loss: 0.2255
  • Take Profit: 0.256

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2255 - 0.2342 = -0.0087

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2342 - 0.256 = -0.0218

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0218 / -0.0087 = 2.5057

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.256
            [entry_price] => 0.2342
            [stop_loss] => 0.22463
            [rr_ratio] => 2.28
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 14:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.715% (0.0087)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.658% 0.2R -0.576% 0.2R 1.1× 12
2h +1.059% 0.3R -2.579% 0.7R 0.4× 24
4h +2.434% 0.7R -2.579% 0.7R 0.9× 48
8h +2.434% 0.7R -4.577% 1.2R 0.5× 96
12h ★ +2.434% 0.7R -4.577% 1.2R 0.5× 144
24h +3.382% 0.9R -4.577% 1.2R 0.7× 288
36h +3.382% 0.9R -8.134% 2.2R 0.4× 432
48h +3.382% 0.9R -8.318% 2.2R 0.4× 576
72h +3.382% 0.9R -8.318% 2.2R 0.4× 864
⏱ MFE in 1240 min MAE in 2070 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 5 days ago

Commentaires

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