01 Oct 2026 at 06:17:57 hyperliquid

Long Trade on AR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 34.45 AR at 4.444$ per unit. Take profit: 5.0242 (13.06 %) & Stop Loss: 4.2115 (5.23 %)

AR LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 06:17 → 15:00 · 8 hours

Position

Entry 4.4437$

Qty 34.4545 AR

Size 153.1053$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 5.0242 (+13.06%)

TP $ 20$

SL 4.2115 (-5.23%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -5.23% / -8$ MAE -5.80% MFE +1.10% 0.2R expires 01 Oct 18:17

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 169474)
#5 / 78 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 06:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3415

Quality Score
0.615
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
81 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 06:16

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169474)
#5 / 78 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 06:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3415

Quality Score
0.615
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#5 / 78 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.23 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#5 / 78 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.23 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h clear 2.53×ATR
4h clear 3.37×ATR
1d clear 1.52×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down late OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
2.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 06:16
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

01/10 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

01/10 05:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4546
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 7.8%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 3.3%
1h 1.7%
4h 3.3%
24h 25.0%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 3.3% -0.64%
4h 8.3% -2.53%
24h 26.7% -2.17%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.210
Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 01/10 06:16 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5421
Score SMA
0.6368
Rank
#50 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3467
Rank Norm SMA
0.5431
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6494 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.64% · r3d: -12.75% · ema21_slope: 2.9697% · dist_ema21: 5.835%
Force Relative 25% 0.4701 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.63% · rs_3d: -11.77% · beta_24h: 2.348
Volume 20% 0.4697 rvol_20: 1.06× · zscore_50: 0.700 · trend: 50.36%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.9056 ADX: 48.7 (trend) · Chop: 28.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 11.210% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 06:00
Score brut
0.6147
Score SMA
0.5161
Rank
#5 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3415
Rank Norm SMA
0.3875
Calculé le
01/10/2026 06:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6270 r1h: 6.541% · r4h: 10.063% · r1d: 6.83% · r3d: 6.35% · ema21_slope: -0.0226% · dist_ema21: 8.550%
Force Relative 25% 0.8747 rs_1h: 6.291% · rs_4h: 10.697% · rs_1d: 6.64% · rs_3d: 5.00% · beta_24h: 2.060
Volume 20% 0.3858 rvol_20: 1.09× · zscore_50: 0.336 · trend: 2.02%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6500 ADX: 18.0 (weak) · Chop: 27.6 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.196% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.3665
Score SMA
0.4859
Rank
#73 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0522
Rank Norm SMA
0.2566
Calculé le
01/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3952 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.066% · r1d: -3.02% · r3d: -3.53% · ema21_slope: -0.3565% · dist_ema21: -4.260%
Force Relative 25% 0.3813 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.654% · rs_1d: -3.18% · rs_3d: -4.09% · beta_24h: 2.909
Volume 20% 0.2218 rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.460 · trend: -20.05%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3353 ADX: 11.1 (weak) · Chop: 70.0 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.5801 ATR%: 4.260% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -5.225% (0.2322)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.556% 0.1R -1.897% 0.4R 0.3× 12
2h +1.105% 0.2R -1.897% 0.4R 0.6× 24
4h +1.105% 0.2R -1.951% 0.4R 0.6× 48
8h +1.105% 0.2R -3.974% 0.8R 0.3× 96
12h ★ +1.105% 0.2R -5.804% 1.1R 0.2× 144
24h +1.105% 0.2R -5.804% 1.1R 0.2× 288
36h +1.105% 0.2R -7.480% 1.4R 0.2× 432
48h +5.916% 1.1R -7.480% 1.4R 0.8× 576
72h +7.570% 1.5R -7.480% 1.4R 1.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 102 min MAE in 1937 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 6 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.66
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 45% early — — 0.55 bull_high +12.59% +1.00 29/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind compression bull_high
49%
noisy_chop 36% late near -3.1ATR — 0.33 bull_high +1.21% -0.86 01/10 00:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong fading volatile_reversal bull_high
53%
noisy_chop 44% late — — 0.21 range_medium -0.04% +0.46 01/10 05:00
15m ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
59%
ranging_calm 55% late — — 0.51 range_low -0.10% +0.71 01/10 06:00
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187671
↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive 0.822 volatile_reversal bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 45% early 10b 0.4ATR — — 1.06 94% ↑ +0.83 below_value -5.80 — #101597 0.55 bull_high +12.59% +1.00
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:23
4h
#190901
↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.610 compression bull_high
49%
noisy_chop 36% late 21b -1.2ATR near -3.1ATR — 0.58 69% ↓ -0.40 below_value -6.95 — #102994 0.33 bull_high +1.21% -0.86
01/10 00:00
upd 01/10 04:15
1h anchor
#191728
↔ neutral range range strong fading 0.334 volatile_reversal bull_high
53%
noisy_chop 44% late 2b 4.1ATR — — 1.09 86% ↓ -0.27 above_value -0.48 — #103389 0.21 range_medium -0.04% +0.46
01/10 05:00
upd 01/10 06:11
15m
#191808
↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive 0.718 volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
59%
ranging_calm 55% late 1b 3.3ATR — — 2.01 94% ↑ +0.55 above_value -0.48 — #103389 0.51 range_low -0.10% +0.71
01/10 06:00
upd 01/10 06:17
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 10b — 2.541×ATR p0 +0.352×ATR p24
4h ↓ down late 21b — 6.015×ATR p90 -1.213×ATR p58
1h ↑ up late 2b — 4.859×ATR p91 +4.05×ATR p100
15m ↓ down late 1b — 1.688×ATR p5 +3.271×ATR p97

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.8085
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.44×ATR dur=60b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 4.21150953
  5. tp_price: 5.02417618
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.80853503481485
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-01T22:17:49.903224
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.80853503481485
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.0802
  14. obi_top10 : 0.1626
  15. micro_price : 4.44657399
  16. spread_pct : 0.112486
  17. mid_price : 4.4475
  18. bid_wall_price :
  19. bid_wall_size :
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 4.46
  22. ask_wall_size : 8962.84
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.0803
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0004
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7148
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.01
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    4.3454
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    4.0979
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    4.22165
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790636400
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790848800
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.4407
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    60
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: stretched
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8085
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790845200
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    4.3454
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.75
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.9694
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    13
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    11
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.10140473
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
60
inside_close_ratio
0.75
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9694

Signaux confirmants (25)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 06:17 4.44370000 0%
2 06:28 4.44370000 0%
3 06:39 4.44690000 +0.072%
4 06:50 4.44690000 +0.072%
5 07:00 4.44690000 +0.072%
6 07:13 4.39380000 -1.123%
7 07:24 4.39380000 -1.123%
8 07:35 4.41430000 -0.662%
9 07:46 4.41430000 -0.662%
10 07:57 4.41430000 -0.662%
11 08:12 4.46550000 +0.491%
12 08:25 4.46550000 +0.491%
13 08:36 4.41540000 -0.637%
14 08:48 4.41540000 -0.637%
15 08:59 4.41540000 -0.637%
16 09:12 4.39990000 -0.986%
17 09:23 4.39990000 -0.986%
18 09:34 4.39990000 -0.986%
19 09:45 4.42470000 -0.428%
20 09:56 4.42470000 -0.428%
21 10:10 4.39610000 -1.071%
22 10:22 4.39610000 -1.071%
23 10:33 4.39610000 -1.071%
24 10:44 4.41180000 -0.718%
25 10:55 4.41180000 -0.718%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7148ms Confidence avant OB : 81% → 81%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.080
avg 0.080 ± 0.000
OBI Top 10 0.163

Microstructure

Mid Price
4.4475
Micro Price
4.4466
Spread
0.1125%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
4.4600
Size
8,962.84

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
4.4437 4.2115 5.0242 2.5 3.5111
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 4.4437
  • Stop Loss: 4.2115
  • Take Profit: 5.0242

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 4.2115 - 4.4437 = -0.2322

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 4.4437 - 5.0242 = -0.5805

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.5805 / -0.2322 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
153.1053 100 34.4545 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.2322

Taille de position = 8 / -0.2322 = -34.45

Taille de position USD = -34.45 x 4.4437 = -153.09

Donc, tu peux acheter -34.45 avec un stoploss a 4.2115

Avec un position size USD de -153.09$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -34.45 x -0.2322 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -34.45 x -0.5805 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -34.45
  • Taille de position USD -153.09
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
13.06 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
5.23 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -5.23
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-5.2749 % 100.95 % 13
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
4.4437 4.2115 5.0242 2.5 3.5111
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 4.4437
  • Stop Loss: 4.2115
  • Take Profit: 5.0242

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 4.2115 - 4.4437 = -0.2322

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 4.4437 - 5.0242 = -0.5805

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.5805 / -0.2322 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -5.225% (0.2322)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.556% 0.1R -1.897% 0.4R 0.3× 12
2h +1.105% 0.2R -1.897% 0.4R 0.6× 24
4h +1.105% 0.2R -1.951% 0.4R 0.6× 48
8h +1.105% 0.2R -3.974% 0.8R 0.3× 96
12h ★ +1.105% 0.2R -5.804% 1.1R 0.2× 144
24h +1.105% 0.2R -5.804% 1.1R 0.2× 288
36h +1.105% 0.2R -7.480% 1.4R 0.2× 432
48h +5.916% 1.1R -7.480% 1.4R 0.8× 576
72h +7.570% 1.5R -7.480% 1.4R 1.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 102 min MAE in 1937 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 6 days ago

Commentaires

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