Short Trade on DASH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 3.95 DASH at 59$ per unit. Take profit: 53.9403 (8.58 %) & Stop Loss: 61.0239 (3.43 %)
01 Oct 2026 at 13:46:21
hyperliquid
DASH
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Oct 2026 13:46
→ 01:35
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 59$
Qty 3.9528 DASH
Size 233.2174$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 53.9403 (+8.58%)
TP $ 20$
SL 61.0239 (-3.43%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.66%
/ -3.87$
MAE -2.58%
MFE +1.75%
0.5R
expires
02 Oct 01:46
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: )
#73 / 78
OK
seuil : top 15
Avg Rank 8h:
Quality Score
N/A
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#73 / 78
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-1
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#73 / 78
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.01×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.61×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | — | — | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
866,322 $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 13:32
01/10 13:32
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/10 04:00 Score : -1 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4576
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
44.8%
Macro
btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 65.5% |
| 1h | 96.6% |
| 4h | 60.3% |
| 24h | 39.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 67.2% | +0.09% |
| 4h | 25.9% | +0.33% |
| 24h | 25.9% | -0.59% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.148
Universe :
58
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
01/10 13:46
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5025
Score SMA
0.6026
Rank
#65
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1467
Rank Norm SMA
0.3821
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7169 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.37% · r3d: -11.72% · ema21_slope: 1.0448% · dist_ema21: 0.634% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5640 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.35% · rs_3d: -10.73% · beta_24h: 1.415 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2123 | rvol_20: 0.38× · zscore_50: -0.514 · trend: -15.05% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6932 | ADX: 41.1 (trend) · Chop: 56.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.463% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.3589
Score SMA
0.5253
Rank
#71
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0979
Rank Norm SMA
0.3566
Calculé le
01/10/2026 08:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3208 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.319% · r1d: -4.10% · r3d: -8.09% · ema21_slope: -0.3734% · dist_ema21: -3.870% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3510 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.904% · rs_1d: -4.10% · rs_3d: -9.06% · beta_24h: 2.826 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1946 | rvol_20: 0.65× · zscore_50: -0.443 · trend: -65.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3748 | ADX: 22.2 (weak) · Chop: 76.5 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7972 | ATR%: 3.609% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.430%
(2.0239)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.261% | 0.1R | -0.688% | 0.2R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.378% | 0.4R | -0.688% | 0.2R | 2.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.695% | 0.5R | -0.688% | 0.2R | 2.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.749% | 0.5R | -0.688% | 0.2R | 2.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.749% | 0.5R | -2.581% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.749% | 0.5R | -2.709% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.003% | 1.8R | -2.709% | 0.8R | 2.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.003% | 1.8R | -2.709% | 0.8R | 2.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +6.003% | 1.8R | -2.709% | 0.8R | 2.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1498 min
MAE in 1188 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.82
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.53 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.25 | 29/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.43 | bull_high | +1.77% | -0.84 | 01/10 04:00 |
| 1h | — | ||||||||||||||||
| 15m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#187774
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.722 | normal | bull_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 15b 0.1ATR | — | — | 0.38 | 69% | ↑ +0.19 | below_value | -12.24 | — | #101631 | 0.53 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.25 |
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:27
|
|
4h
#192673
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.655 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 27b -1.4ATR | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.65 | 22% | ↓ -0.43 | below_value | -15.96 | — | #103741 | 0.43 | bull_high | +1.77% | -0.84 |
01/10 04:00
upd 01/10 08:22
|
| 1h anchor | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 15b | — | 1.722×ATR | p0 | +0.056×ATR | p2 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 27b | — | 6.66×ATR | p91 | -1.392×ATR | p70 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8123
- reason: down_bo width=2.74×ATR dur=55b phase=extending
- stop_price: 61.02386306
- tp_price: 53.94034235
- atr:
- score: 0.81227516715019
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T05:46:13.930727
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81227516715019
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0674
- obi_top10 : 0.0279
- micro_price : 59.34791469
- spread_pct : 0.050565
- mid_price : 59.345
- bid_wall_price : 59.1
- bid_wall_size : 2617.59
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.085
- obi_top5_std : 0.0132
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7003
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
62.12
- balance_zone_bottom:
59.755
- balance_zone_mid:
60.9375
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790679600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790874000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7384
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
55
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8123
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790848800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
59.755
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7818
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
7
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.8742
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.86363062 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
55
inside_close_ratio
0.7818
bars_since_breakout
7
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8742
Signaux confirmants (15)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:46 | 59.00000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 13:57 | 59.00000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 14:11 | 59.05200000 | +0.088% |
| 4 | 14:24 | 59.05200000 | +0.088% |
| 5 | 14:35 | 59.05200000 | +0.088% |
| 6 | 14:47 | 59.20600000 | +0.349% |
| 7 | 14:58 | 59.20600000 | +0.349% |
| 8 | 15:11 | 58.91700000 | -0.141% |
| 9 | 15:22 | 58.91700000 | -0.141% |
| 10 | 15:34 | 58.91700000 | -0.141% |
| 11 | 16:12 | 58.79300000 | -0.351% |
| 12 | 16:24 | 58.79300000 | -0.351% |
| 13 | 16:36 | 58.79300000 | -0.351% |
| 14 | 16:48 | 58.70300000 | -0.503% |
| 15 | 16:59 | 58.70300000 | -0.503% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7003ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.067
avg 0.085
± 0.013
OBI Top 10
0.028
Microstructure
Mid Price
59.3450
Micro Price
59.3479
Spread
0.0506%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
59.1000
Size
2,617.59
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 61.0239 | 53.9403 | 2.5 | 47.973 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 59
- Stop Loss: 61.0239
- Take Profit: 53.9403
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 61.0239 - 59 = 2.0239
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 59 - 53.9403 = 5.0597
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.0597 / 2.0239 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 233.2174 | 100 | 3.9528 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 2.0239
Taille de position = 8 / 2.0239 = 3.95
Taille de position USD = 3.95 x 59 = 233.05
Donc, tu peux acheter 3.95 avec un stoploss a 61.0239
Avec un position size USD de 233.05$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3.95 x 2.0239 = 7.99
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3.95 x 5.0597 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3.95
- Taille de position USD 233.05
- Perte potentielle 7.99
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 8.58 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.43 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -3.87 $ | -1.66 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5814 % | 75.25 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 61.0239 | 53.9403 | 2.5 | 47.973 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 59
- Stop Loss: 61.0239
- Take Profit: 53.9403
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 61.0239 - 59 = 2.0239
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 59 - 53.9403 = 5.0597
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.0597 / 2.0239 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.430%
(2.0239)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.261% | 0.1R | -0.688% | 0.2R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.378% | 0.4R | -0.688% | 0.2R | 2.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.695% | 0.5R | -0.688% | 0.2R | 2.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.749% | 0.5R | -0.688% | 0.2R | 2.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.749% | 0.5R | -2.581% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.749% | 0.5R | -2.709% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.003% | 1.8R | -2.709% | 0.8R | 2.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.003% | 1.8R | -2.709% | 0.8R | 2.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +6.003% | 1.8R | -2.709% | 0.8R | 2.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1498 min
MAE in 1188 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.