Long Trade on MORPHO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 83.03 MORPHO at 2.604$ per unit. Take profit: 2.8453 (9.25 %) & Stop Loss: 2.508 (3.7 %)
01 Oct 2026 at 22:18:00
hyperliquid
MORPHO
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Oct 2026 22:18
→ 10:15
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 2.6044$
Qty 83.03 MORPHO
Size 216.2433$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 2.8453 (+9.25%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2.508 (-3.7%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.92%
/ +4.16$
MAE -1.73%
MFE +3.78%
1.0R
expires
02 Oct 10:17
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 171106)
#12 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 22:00
score du 01/10/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7518
Quality Score
0.545
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#12 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#12 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.88×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.17×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.59×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 22:17
01/10 22:17
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 01/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 01/10 21:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4610
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
74.0%
Macro
broad_risk_on
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 76.3% |
| 1h | 91.5% |
| 4h | 84.8% |
| 24h | 40.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 76.3% | +0.28% |
| 4h | 78.0% | +0.83% |
| 24h | 17.0% | -0.88% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.116
Universe :
59
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
01/10 22:16
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4461
Score SMA
0.5116
Rank
#66
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1447
Rank Norm SMA
0.1728
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6193 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 3.43% · r3d: 1.77% · ema21_slope: 0.5592% · dist_ema21: 2.097% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4247 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.96% · rs_3d: 0.11% · beta_24h: 1.008 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2967 | rvol_20: 0.68× · zscore_50: -0.198 · trend: 11.01% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6323 | ADX: 26.4 (trend) · Chop: 49.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.962% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.5447
Score SMA
0.4978
Rank
#12
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7518
Rank Norm SMA
0.3437
Calculé le
01/10/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6570 | r1h: 0.628% · r4h: 2.945% · r1d: 4.43% · r3d: 6.12% · ema21_slope: 0.1002% · dist_ema21: 2.486% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6393 | rs_1h: 0.479% · rs_4h: 2.500% · rs_1d: 2.78% · rs_3d: 3.90% · beta_24h: 2.741 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2268 | rvol_20: 0.64× · zscore_50: -0.237 · trend: -34.93% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4960 | ADX: 13.5 (weak) · Chop: 52.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.491% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4688
Score SMA
0.4944
Rank
#34
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5329
Rank Norm SMA
0.3105
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5631 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.974% · r1d: 3.43% · r3d: 1.77% · ema21_slope: -0.1408% · dist_ema21: 1.642% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5049 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.721% · rs_1d: 1.96% · rs_3d: 0.11% · beta_24h: 2.787 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1589 | rvol_20: 0.18× · zscore_50: -0.935 · trend: -34.04% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3635 | ADX: 16.0 (weak) · Chop: 71.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.8738 | ATR%: 3.379% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.701%
(0.0964)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.402% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.728% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.140% | 0.3R | -1.728% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.039% | 0.6R | -1.728% | 0.5R | 1.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.778% | 1.0R | -1.728% | 0.5R | 2.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.778% | 1.0R | -3.241% | 0.9R | 1.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +3.778% | 1.0R | -3.241% | 0.9R | 1.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +7.737% | 2.1R | -3.241% | 0.9R | 2.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +7.737% | 2.1R | -3.241% | 0.9R | 2.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 612 min
MAE in 982 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.88
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | — | 0.50 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.20 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.40 | bull_high | +2.78% | -0.08 | 01/10 16:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | weak | grind | expansion | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | near -0.9ATR | 0.51 | bull_medium | +1.10% | +0.14 | 01/10 21:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.59 | range_low | +0.71% | +0.25 | 01/10 21:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197675
|
↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.714 | expansion | bull_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early 6b 0.2ATR | — | — | 0.68 | 68% | ↑ +0.49 | above_value | -4.27 | — | #105818 | 0.50 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.20 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:25
|
|
4h
#197543
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.526 | compression | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 8b 0.5ATR | — | — | 0.18 | 9% | ↓ -0.47 | above_value | -4.27 | — | #105818 | 0.40 | bull_high | +2.78% | -0.08 |
01/10 16:00
upd 01/10 20:18
|
|
1h
anchor #198393
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | weak | grind | 0.555 | expansion | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late 4b 1.5ATR | — | near -0.9ATR | 0.64 | 47% | ↓ -0.33 | above_value | -4.10 | — | #106206 | 0.51 | bull_medium | +1.10% | +0.14 |
01/10 21:00
upd 01/10 22:12
|
|
15m
#198319
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.601 | normal | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 4b 1.6ATR | — | — | 0.75 | 42% | ↑ +0.86 | above_value | -4.03 | — | #106052 | 0.59 | range_low | +0.71% | +0.25 |
01/10 21:45
upd 01/10 22:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 1.951×ATR | p5 | +0.223×ATR | p18 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 0.654×ATR | p0 | +0.531×ATR | p37 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 4b | — | 2.48×ATR | p49 | +1.492×ATR | p82 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 4b | — | 1.687×ATR | p3 | +1.601×ATR | p73 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8973
- reason: up_bo width=2.49×ATR dur=32b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 2.50804925
- tp_price: 2.84527687
- atr:
- score: 0.89728630758981
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T14:17:51.955778
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.89728630758981
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0511
- obi_top10 : -0.1326
- micro_price : 2.5984
- spread_pct : 0.053894
- mid_price : 2.5984
- bid_wall_price : 2.56
- bid_wall_size : 14465.4
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 2.61
- ask_wall_size : 14872.4
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0579
- obi_top5_std : 0.0078
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7096
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2.5579
- balance_zone_bottom:
2.4656
- balance_zone_mid:
2.51175
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790794800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790906400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4941
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
32
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8973
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790895600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2.5579
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.875
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
3
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.2565
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
11
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.03700747 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
32
inside_close_ratio
0.875
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2565
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:18 | 2.60440000 | 0% |
| 2 | 22:28 | 2.60440000 | 0% |
| 3 | 22:40 | 2.58200000 | -0.86% |
| 4 | 22:51 | 2.58200000 | -0.86% |
| 5 | 23:02 | 2.58200000 | -0.86% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7096ms
Confidence avant OB :
90%
→
90%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.051
avg -0.058
± 0.008
OBI Top 10
-0.133
Microstructure
Mid Price
2.5984
Micro Price
2.5984
Spread
0.0539%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
2.5600
Size
14,465.40
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
2.6100
Size
14,872.40
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6044 | 2.508 | 2.8453 | 2.5 | 2.2532 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.6044
- Stop Loss: 2.508
- Take Profit: 2.8453
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.508 - 2.6044 = -0.0964
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.6044 - 2.8453 = -0.2409
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.2409 / -0.0964 = 2.499
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216.2433 | 100 | 83.03 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.0964
Taille de position = 8 / -0.0964 = -82.99
Taille de position USD = -82.99 x 2.6044 = -216.14
Donc, tu peux acheter -82.99 avec un stoploss a 2.508
Avec un position size USD de -216.14$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -82.99 x -0.0964 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -82.99 x -0.2409 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position -82.99
- Taille de position USD -216.14
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.499
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.25 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.7 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.16 $ | 1.92 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.7278 % | 46.68 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6044 | 2.508 | 2.8453 | 2.5 | 2.2532 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.6044
- Stop Loss: 2.508
- Take Profit: 2.8453
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.508 - 2.6044 = -0.0964
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.6044 - 2.8453 = -0.2409
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.2409 / -0.0964 = 2.499
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.701%
(0.0964)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.402% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.728% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.140% | 0.3R | -1.728% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.039% | 0.6R | -1.728% | 0.5R | 1.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.778% | 1.0R | -1.728% | 0.5R | 2.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.778% | 1.0R | -3.241% | 0.9R | 1.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +3.778% | 1.0R | -3.241% | 0.9R | 1.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +7.737% | 2.1R | -3.241% | 0.9R | 2.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +7.737% | 2.1R | -3.241% | 0.9R | 2.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 612 min
MAE in 982 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.