Short Trade on LIT

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02 Oct 2026 at 00:15:08 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 45.8 LIT at 3.78$ per unit. Take profit: 3.6855 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 3.9547 (4.62 %)

LIT SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 00:15 → 06:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 3.78$

Qty 45.8043 LIT

Size 173.1402$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 3.6855 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.33$

SL 3.9547 (-4.62%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.54

Status loss PnL -2.18% / -3.77$ MAE -3.19% MFE +0.16% 0.0R expires 02 Oct 06:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 171285)

#78 / 78

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 00:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0000

Quality Score

0.313

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#78 / 78

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

100 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-4

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-4

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.62 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#78 / 78

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

100 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-4

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.62 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.63×ATR
4h	near	0.36×ATR
1d	clear	3.22×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-4

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

mixed

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-4

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

0.79

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

27.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 00:03

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 22:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

01/10 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 22:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4617

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Micro	bull 0.90	expansion

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -4

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 69.4%

Macro mixed_dispersion

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : mixed

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	60.0%
1h	28.3%
4h	81.7%
24h	36.7%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	36.7%	+0.02%
4h	53.3%	+0.79%
24h	13.3%	-0.64%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.102

Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 00:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3261

Score SMA

0.4613

Rank

#75 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0263

Rank Norm SMA

0.0850

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3555	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.67% · r3d: -14.30% · ema21_slope: 0.1503% · dist_ema21: -13.809%
Force Relative	25%	0.1798	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.14% · rs_3d: -15.96% · beta_24h: 0.465
Volume	20%	0.2937	rvol_20: 0.59× · zscore_50: -0.599 · trend: 39.56%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7715	ADX: 39.3 (trend) · Chop: 45.1 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.306% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 00:00

Score brut

0.3129

Score SMA

0.4378

Rank

#78 / 78

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0000

Rank Norm SMA

0.1636

Calculé le

02/10/2026 00:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2712	r1h: -0.549% · r4h: -0.648% · r1d: -6.43% · r3d: -13.09% · ema21_slope: -0.1894% · dist_ema21: -2.160%
Force Relative	25%	0.2007	rs_1h: -0.923% · rs_4h: -1.408% · rs_1d: -8.52% · rs_3d: -16.04% · beta_24h: 1.995
Volume	20%	0.1746	rvol_20: 0.68× · zscore_50: -0.823 · trend: -71.45%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4636	ADX: 16.7 (weak) · Chop: 59.9 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.958% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 00:00

Score brut

0.2566

Score SMA

0.3664

Rank

#78 / 78

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0000

Rank Norm SMA

0.0469

Calculé le

02/10/2026 00:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1439	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.648% · r1d: -6.43% · r3d: -13.09% · ema21_slope: -0.6925% · dist_ema21: -7.040%
Force Relative	25%	0.1141	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.408% · rs_1d: -8.52% · rs_3d: -16.04% · beta_24h: 2.168
Volume	20%	0.1536	rvol_20: 0.13× · zscore_50: -0.696 · trend: -51.41%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7847	ADX: 39.5 (trend) · Chop: 43.8 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.2046	ATR%: 5.386% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.622% (0.1747)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.384%	0.5R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.159%	0.0R	-2.569%	0.6R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.159%	0.0R	-3.183%	0.7R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.159%	0.0R	-3.193%	0.7R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.511%	0.1R	-3.193%	0.7R	0.2×	96
12h	+4.156%	0.9R	-3.193%	0.7R	1.3×	144
24h	+8.357%	1.8R	-3.193%	0.7R	2.6×	288
48h	+9.542%	2.1R	-3.193%	0.7R	3.0×	576
72h	+9.542%	2.1R	-3.193%	0.7R	3.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 1439 min MAE in 259 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.12

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	expansion	bull_high	51%	noisy_chop 36%	mid	—	—	—	bull_high	+13.92%	-0.98	30/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 38%	mid	near 0.4ATR	—	0.34	bull_high	+2.78%	-0.91	01/10 16:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	53%	noisy_chop 40%	mid	—	—	0.35	bull_medium	+1.41%	-0.65	01/10 22:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	balanced	normal	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 34%	early	near -0.5ATR	near 0.2ATR	0.28	bull_low	+1.27%	-0.12	01/10 23:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197722	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	0.460	expansion	bull_high	51%	noisy_chop 36%	mid 7b -1.3ATR	—	—	0.59	68%	↑ +0.26	above_value	-1.67	—	#105840	—	bull_high	+13.92%	-0.98	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:27
4h #197636	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.408	expansion	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 38%	mid 12b -1.1ATR	near 0.4ATR	—	0.43	44%	↓ -0.15	above_value	-1.67	—	#105840	0.34	bull_high	+2.78%	-0.91	01/10 16:00 upd 01/10 20:23
1h anchor #198802	↓ down	range	range	moderate	fading	0.645	compression	bear_high	53%	noisy_chop 40%	mid 10b -1.1ATR	—	—	0.33	11%	↓ -0.26	above_value	-2.05	—	#106384	0.35	bull_medium	+1.41%	-0.65	01/10 22:00 upd 01/10 23:12
15m #199111	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	balanced	0.412	normal	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 34%	early 1b -0.7ATR	near -0.5ATR	near 0.2ATR	0.74	15%	↔ -0.10	above_value	-2.05	—	#106384	0.28	bull_low	+1.27%	-0.12	01/10 23:45 upd 02/10 00:04
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	7b	—	3.789×ATR	p50	-1.295×ATR	p69
4h	↑ up	mid	12b	—	0.905×ATR	p0	-1.075×ATR	p63
1h	↓ down	mid	10b	—	2.478×ATR	p49	-1.071×ATR	p62
15m	↑ up	early	1b	—	1.549×ATR	p3	-0.688×ATR	p41

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 3.9546561
tp_price: 3.6855
atr: 0.06986244
expires_at: 2026-10-02T10:15:08+00:00

Details

rank: 79
total: 79
score: 0.2542
delta_2h: -0.0448
extension_atr: -1.05
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0
confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.78	3.9547	3.6855	0.54	3.4059

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.78
Stop Loss: 3.9547
Take Profit: 3.6855

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 3.9547 - 3.78 = 0.1747
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.78 - 3.6855 = 0.0945
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0945 / 0.1747 = 0.5409

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
173.1402	100	45.8043	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.1747

Taille de position = 8 / 0.1747 = 45.79

Taille de position USD = 45.79 x 3.78 = 173.09

Donc, tu peux acheter 45.79 avec un stoploss a 3.9547

Avec un position size USD de 173.09$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 45.79 x 0.1747 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 45.79 x 0.0945 = 4.33

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.33$

Résumé

Taille de position 45.79
Taille de position USD 173.09
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 4.33
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5409

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	4.33 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.62 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-3.77 $	-2.18

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.1931 %	69.09 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.78	3.9547	3.6855	0.54	3.4059

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.78
Stop Loss: 3.9547
Take Profit: 3.6855

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 3.9547 - 3.78 = 0.1747
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.78 - 3.6855 = 0.0945
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0945 / 0.1747 = 0.5409

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.622% (0.1747)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.384%	0.5R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.159%	0.0R	-2.569%	0.6R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.159%	0.0R	-3.183%	0.7R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.159%	0.0R	-3.193%	0.7R	0.1×	72
8h	+0.511%	0.1R	-3.193%	0.7R	0.2×	96
12h	+4.156%	0.9R	-3.193%	0.7R	1.3×	144
24h	+8.357%	1.8R	-3.193%	0.7R	2.6×	288
48h	+9.542%	2.1R	-3.193%	0.7R	3.0×	576
72h	+9.542%	2.1R	-3.193%	0.7R	3.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 1439 min MAE in 259 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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