Long Trade on XMR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.91 XMR at 551.05$ per unit. Take profit: 572.9501 (3.97 %) & Stop Loss: 542.2899 (1.59 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 02:42:22
hyperliquid
XMR
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 02:42
→ 09:25
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 551.05$
Qty 0.9132 XMR
Size 503.2389$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 572.9501 (+3.97%)
TP $ 20$
SL 542.2899 (-1.59%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.59%
/ -8$
MAE -3.49%
MFE +0.15%
0.1R
expires
02 Oct 14:42
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 171515)
#52 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 02:00
score du 02/10/2026 02:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4021
Quality Score
0.488
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#52 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#52 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.23×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.95×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.49×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
12.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 02:32
02/10 02:32
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 01/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 02/10 01:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4627
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
75.4%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 62.3% |
| 1h | 78.7% |
| 4h | 86.9% |
| 24h | 47.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 80.3% | +0.05% |
| 4h | 49.2% | +0.99% |
| 24h | 21.3% | -0.06% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.153
Universe :
61
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 02:31
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4353
Score SMA
0.4825
Rank
#69
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1053
Rank Norm SMA
0.0959
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6003 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.09% · r3d: 0.69% · ema21_slope: 0.3344% · dist_ema21: 0.886% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4379 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.56% · rs_3d: -0.96% · beta_24h: 1.029 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1675 | rvol_20: 0.50× · zscore_50: -0.701 · trend: -39.60% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7410 | ADX: 45.9 (trend) · Chop: 55.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0111 | ATR%: 5.967% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 02:00
Score brut
0.4875
Score SMA
0.5039
Rank
#52
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4021
Rank Norm SMA
0.4152
Calculé le
02/10/2026 02:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5172 | r1h: -0.084% · r4h: 0.226% · r1d: -0.77% · r3d: 1.69% · ema21_slope: 0.0355% · dist_ema21: 0.508% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4594 | rs_1h: 0.672% · rs_4h: -1.065% · rs_1d: -2.78% · rs_3d: -1.40% · beta_24h: 0.640 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3147 | rvol_20: 0.95× · zscore_50: 0.177 · trend: -26.63% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3634 | ADX: 8.9 (weak) · Chop: 64.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.800% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4234
Score SMA
0.4619
Rank
#68
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2491
Rank Norm SMA
0.2222
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4994 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.299% · r1d: -0.50% · r3d: 1.24% · ema21_slope: 0.0054% · dist_ema21: 0.414% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4174 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.460% · rs_1d: -2.59% · rs_3d: -1.71% · beta_24h: 0.703 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1653 | rvol_20: 0.33× · zscore_50: -0.768 · trend: -37.64% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2411 | ADX: 10.9 (weak) · Chop: 81.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.701% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.590%
(8.7601)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -0.584% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -0.584% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -0.936% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -1.644% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.151% | 0.1R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.054% | 0.7R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.3× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.350% | 1.5R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +2.350% | 1.5R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 2062 min
MAE in 717 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.28
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early | — | — | 0.50 | bull_high | +13.92% | -0.49 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | range_high |
35%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.28 | bull_high | +3.48% | -0.15 | 01/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.23 | bull_medium_confirmed | +2.23% | -0.24 | 02/10 01:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | bull_low_confirmed |
44%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | near 0.0ATR | 0.48 | bull_low | +1.50% | -0.04 | 02/10 02:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197724
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.621 | compression | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 32% | early 10b 0.1ATR | — | — | 0.50 | 75% | ↓ -0.28 | above_value | +0.60 | — | #105841 | 0.50 | bull_high | +13.92% | -0.49 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:27
|
|
4h
#199308
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.503 | compression | range_high |
35%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early 21b 0.3ATR | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.33 | 1% | ↔ -0.13 | above_value | +1.15 | — | #106543 | 0.28 | bull_high | +3.48% | -0.15 |
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 00:20
|
|
1h
anchor #200031
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.572 | normal | range_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 10b 0.6ATR | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.95 | 60% | ↓ -0.51 | value | +1.70 | — | #106930 | 0.23 | bull_medium_confirmed | +2.23% | -0.24 |
02/10 01:00
upd 02/10 02:12
|
|
15m
#200182
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.637 | normal | bull_low_confirmed |
44%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid 19b 1.4ATR | — | near 0.0ATR | 2.77 | 90% | ↑ +0.69 | value | +1.70 | — | #106930 | 0.48 | bull_low | +1.50% | -0.04 |
02/10 02:15
upd 02/10 02:33
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 2.779×ATR | p20 | +0.122×ATR | p8 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 21b | — | 2.394×ATR | p19 | +0.285×ATR | p24 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 10b | — | 1.757×ATR | p24 | +0.599×ATR | p49 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 19b | — | 3.716×ATR | p74 | +1.391×ATR | p79 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8047
- reason: up_bo width=2.34×ATR dur=53b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 542.28994589
- tp_price: 572.95013527
- atr:
- score: 0.8046797046569
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T18:42:14.407543
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.8046797046569
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.069
- obi_top10 : 0.0587
- micro_price : 551.40067961
- spread_pct : 0.076189
- mid_price : 551.47
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 553
- ask_wall_size : 522.498
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0679
- obi_top5_std : 0.0014
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7160
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
547.76
- balance_zone_bottom:
537.68
- balance_zone_mid:
542.72
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790733600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790920800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3439
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
53
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8047
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790913600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
547.76
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7736
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.765
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
15
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 4.30054106 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
53
inside_close_ratio
0.7736
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.765
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:42 | 551.05000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 02:53 | 551.05000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 03:06 | 551.05000000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7160ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.069
avg 0.068
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.059
Microstructure
Mid Price
551.4700
Micro Price
551.4007
Spread
0.0762%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
553.0000
Size
522.50
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 551.05 | 542.2899 | 572.9501 | 2.5 | 598.68 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 551.05
- Stop Loss: 542.2899
- Take Profit: 572.9501
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 542.2899 - 551.05 = -8.7601
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 551.05 - 572.9501 = -21.9001
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -21.9001 / -8.7601 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 503.2389 | 100 | 0.9132 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -8.7601
Taille de position = 8 / -8.7601 = -0.91
Taille de position USD = -0.91 x 551.05 = -501.46
Donc, tu peux acheter -0.91 avec un stoploss a 542.2899
Avec un position size USD de -501.46$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -0.91 x -8.7601 = 7.97
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.97$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -0.91 x -21.9001 = 19.93
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.93$
Résumé
- Taille de position -0.91
- Taille de position USD -501.46
- Perte potentielle 7.97
- Gain potentiel 19.93
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.97 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.59 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.59 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6441 % | 103.42 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 551.05 | 542.2899 | 572.9501 | 2.5 | 598.68 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 551.05
- Stop Loss: 542.2899
- Take Profit: 572.9501
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 542.2899 - 551.05 = -8.7601
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 551.05 - 572.9501 = -21.9001
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -21.9001 / -8.7601 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.590%
(8.7601)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -0.584% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -0.584% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -0.936% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -1.644% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.151% | 0.1R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.151% | 0.1R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.054% | 0.7R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.3× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.350% | 1.5R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +2.350% | 1.5R | -3.490% | 2.2R | 0.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 2062 min
MAE in 717 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.