Short Trade on LIT

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02 Oct 2026 at 15:15:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 41.38 LIT at 3.578$ per unit. Take profit: 3.4889 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 3.7717 (5.4 %)

LIT SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 15:15 → 21:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 3.5784$

Qty 41.3842 LIT

Size 148.0894$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 3.4889 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.7$

SL 3.7717 (-5.4%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.46

Status win PnL +1.17% / +1.73$ MAE -1.99% MFE +1.53% 0.3R expires 02 Oct 21:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172759)

#79 / 82

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 15:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0949

Quality Score

0.392

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#79 / 82

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.40 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#79 / 82

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.40 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.70×ATR
4h	near	0.08×ATR
1d	clear	3.22×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

btc

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

-2.94

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

40.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 15:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/10 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/10 14:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

02/10 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

02/10 14:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4677

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.90	early_expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	bear 0.90	transition

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 10.1%

Macro alt_capitulation

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	77.8%
1h	1.6%
4h	3.2%
24h	23.8%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	63.5%	+0.12%
4h	15.9%	-2.94%
24h	28.6%	-1.85%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.267

Universe : 63 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 15:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3261

Score SMA

0.4613

Rank

#75 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0263

Rank Norm SMA

0.0850

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3555	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.67% · r3d: -14.30% · ema21_slope: 0.1503% · dist_ema21: -13.809%
Force Relative	25%	0.1798	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.14% · rs_3d: -15.96% · beta_24h: 0.465
Volume	20%	0.2937	rvol_20: 0.59× · zscore_50: -0.599 · trend: 39.56%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7715	ADX: 39.3 (trend) · Chop: 45.1 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.306% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 15:00

Score brut

0.3917

Score SMA

0.4323

Rank

#79 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0949

Rank Norm SMA

0.1626

Calculé le

02/10/2026 15:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1906	r1h: -1.546% · r4h: -1.685% · r1d: -8.13% · r3d: -20.47% · ema21_slope: -0.1931% · dist_ema21: -4.499%
Force Relative	25%	0.2433	rs_1h: -0.906% · rs_4h: -0.009% · rs_1d: -7.50% · rs_3d: -21.20% · beta_24h: 1.307
Volume	20%	0.8754	rvol_20: 3.16× · zscore_50: 1.848 · trend: 64.12%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6849	ADX: 22.5 (weak) · Chop: 38.5 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.259% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.2786

Score SMA

0.3528

Rank

#77 / 78

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0065

Rank Norm SMA

0.0443

Calculé le

02/10/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1538	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.834% · r1d: -3.78% · r3d: -15.52% · ema21_slope: -0.5911% · dist_ema21: -6.355%
Force Relative	25%	0.1937	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.418% · rs_1d: -5.20% · rs_3d: -18.25% · beta_24h: 1.868
Volume	20%	0.3434	rvol_20: 1.05× · zscore_50: 0.393 · trend: -27.66%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5913	ADX: 40.6 (trend) · Chop: 68.7 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.2661	ATR%: 5.202% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.402% (0.1933)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.802%	0.2R	-1.990%	0.4R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.802%	0.2R	-1.990%	0.4R	0.4×	24
4h	+1.319%	0.2R	-1.990%	0.4R	0.7×	48
6h ★	+1.534%	0.3R	-1.990%	0.4R	0.8×	72
8h	+1.987%	0.4R	-1.990%	0.4R	1.0×	96
12h	+4.446%	0.8R	-1.990%	0.4R	2.2×	144
24h	+4.446%	0.8R	-4.083%	0.8R	1.1×	288
48h	+4.446%	0.8R	-4.083%	0.8R	1.1×	576
72h	+4.446%	0.8R	-12.492%	2.3R	0.4×	864

⏱ MFE in 674 min MAE in 1354 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 0.83

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	expansion	bull_high	51%	noisy_chop 36%	mid	—	—	—	bull_high	+13.92%	-0.98	30/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	normal	bear_high	51%	noisy_chop 38%	mid	near 0.1ATR	—	0.34	bull_high	+3.04%	-0.95	02/10 08:00
1h	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	grind	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	58%	noisy_chop 36%	late	near -0.7ATR	—	0.34	range_medium	-0.29%	-0.43	02/10 14:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	52%	noisy_chop 43%	late	near 0.1ATR	—	0.50	bear_low_confirmed	-1.32%	-0.15	02/10 14:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197722	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	0.460	expansion	bull_high	51%	noisy_chop 36%	mid 7b -1.3ATR	—	—	0.59	68%	↑ +0.26	above_value	-1.67	—	#105840	—	bull_high	+13.92%	-0.98	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:27
4h #204161	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	0.650	normal	bear_high	51%	noisy_chop 38%	mid 11b -1.4ATR	near 0.1ATR	—	1.05	84%	↓ -0.62	value	-2.71	—	#108636	0.34	bull_high	+3.04%	-0.95	02/10 08:00 upd 02/10 12:20
1h anchor #205289	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	grind	0.482	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	58%	noisy_chop 36%	late 2b -2.2ATR	near -0.7ATR	—	3.16	92%	↑ +0.83	below_value	-4.20	inside	#109189	0.34	range_medium	-0.29%	-0.43	02/10 14:00 upd 02/10 15:12
15m #205209	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.488	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	52%	noisy_chop 43%	late 1b -1.6ATR	near 0.1ATR	—	1.19	92%	↓ -0.51	value	-3.41	—	#109031	0.50	bear_low_confirmed	-1.32%	-0.15	02/10 14:45 upd 02/10 15:04
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	7b	—	3.789×ATR	p50	-1.295×ATR	p69
4h	↓ down	mid	11b	—	1.966×ATR	p0	-1.378×ATR	p77
1h	↓ down	late	2b	—	2.171×ATR	p30	-2.164×ATR	p93
15m	↑ up	late	1b	—	1.66×ATR	p0	-1.629×ATR	p81

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 3.77171032
tp_price: 3.48894
atr: 0.07732413
expires_at: 2026-10-03T01:15:05+00:00

Details

rank: 81
total: 82
score: 0.1684
delta_2h: -0.0577
extension_atr: -2.25
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0826
confidence: 0.988

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	15:15	3.57840000	0%
2	16:15	3.58620000	+0.218%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.5784	3.7717	3.4889	0.46	2.8599

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.5784
Stop Loss: 3.7717
Take Profit: 3.4889

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 3.7717 - 3.5784 = 0.1933
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.5784 - 3.4889 = 0.0895
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0895 / 0.1933 = 0.463

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
148.0894	100	41.3842	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.1933

Taille de position = 8 / 0.1933 = 41.39

Taille de position USD = 41.39 x 3.5784 = 148.11

Donc, tu peux acheter 41.39 avec un stoploss a 3.7717

Avec un position size USD de 148.11$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 41.39 x 0.1933 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 41.39 x 0.0895 = 3.7

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.7$

Résumé

Taille de position 41.39
Taille de position USD 148.11
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.7
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.463

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.7 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.4 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
1.73 $	1.17

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.9897 %	36.83 %	12

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.5784	3.7717	3.4889	0.46	2.8599

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.5784
Stop Loss: 3.7717
Take Profit: 3.4889

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 3.7717 - 3.5784 = 0.1933
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.5784 - 3.4889 = 0.0895
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0895 / 0.1933 = 0.463

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.402% (0.1933)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.802%	0.2R	-1.990%	0.4R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.802%	0.2R	-1.990%	0.4R	0.4×	24
4h	+1.319%	0.2R	-1.990%	0.4R	0.7×	48
6h ★	+1.534%	0.3R	-1.990%	0.4R	0.8×	72
8h	+1.987%	0.4R	-1.990%	0.4R	1.0×	96
12h	+4.446%	0.8R	-1.990%	0.4R	2.2×	144
24h	+4.446%	0.8R	-4.083%	0.8R	1.1×	288
48h	+4.446%	0.8R	-4.083%	0.8R	1.1×	576
72h	+4.446%	0.8R	-12.492%	2.3R	0.4×	864

⏱ MFE in 674 min MAE in 1354 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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